In my last post here, I looked back at what I got right and wrong with the 2021 Eagles. I felt strongly on the Eagles beating their preseason win projection and had their record right at 9 wins. Last offseason, this was definitely not consensus, nationally or locally as my Twitter feed experienced.
For 2022, I have them at 11 wins (my AV model actually has them at 10.7) which almost seems pessimistic this year with so many picking the Eagles at 12 or 13 wins, the NFC East, and some as Super Bowl contenders. If you have not seen the model I use for wins, see the last post “What I Got Right and Wrong Last Season and a Peak at Another Over for 2022“. In it I model wins using a build up of player value (Approximate Value) and factor in player growth, injuries, and schedule strength to get to a target win number. For the 2022 season, the addition of A.J. Brown and improvements across the defense add 16 AV, good for 2 extra wins.
Instead of diving deep into the model again, here I wanted to take a bit different view and talk about my most important underlying stats that I will be looking at this season. We all talk about the need for Jalen to take a step up or the defense to be better, but these are the stats that matter on where the improvements need to occur in my opinion.
- Hurts’s passing efficiency in the 1-10 yard range
- DeVonta and AJ combined targets
- Opposing QBs time to throw vs. the pass rush and drive length
- How often Jordan Davis is double teamed
- Injuries, specifically at corner and tackle
Jalen Hurts passing efficiency in the 1-10 yard range
There is little to no new ground to cover in the “is Hurts the guy” debate. My intent here is not to make the same arguments, but to point out what I think is most important to see him improve on this year analytically. Last year I wrote about this so if you read prior posts, this won’t be a surprise – Hurts needs to improve his efficiency in the 1-10 yard passing depth.
It’s always been the case, but even more so today – the highest volume passing area is short distance as the modern defenses are built to take away explosive plays. And Hurts has been bad here. Of the top 37 QBs by pass attempts last year, Hurts is 34th in EPA/play in the 1-10 yard passing range and 33rd in CPOE.
Below is Hurts’ 2021 season with CPOE and EPA/play broken apart by each of the passing depths. It shows that Hurts’ issues really are in this area – despite the general view that his deep passing isn’t good, the data doesn’t back it up as he has good numbers in the 11-20 and over 20 yard target depths.
Below shows Hurts compared to the rest of the league. His CPOE outperforms in all depths except the 1-10 range which is significantly lower.
We all see this with his timing and willingness to throw to a spot. And this was obviously worked on this camp. A lot of the reports coming out of training camp viewed lack of deep throws as an issue but it was clear listening to Sirianni that Hurts was working on the quick game, pointing Hurts quick passing in the Dolphins practice as Hurts’ best in Sirianni’s time:
I mean, to me, Jalen’s practice yesterday was the best practice he’s had as an Eagle… What he was doing with the football, and being able to go through reads and progressions that fast and getting the ball to where it needed to go, I thought it was unbelievable… There was a play on third down, we’re running some sort of slant to A.J. [Brown], they took it away by coverage and boom, it was 3rd and 5 and he checks it down quickly to the tight end, to Jack Stoll over the ball.
Nick Sirianni
DeVonta and AJ combined targets
The Eagles had one of the biggest drop offs in targeting WR1 vs. WR2 last year with DeVonta Smith being targeted 101 times vs. Quez Watkins next at 61 targets. A ton of the Eagles passing game obviously goes through Dallas Goedert (72 targets) and a surprising number through the backs (Kenneth Gainwell and Miles Sanders combined for 77). But the Eagles invested heavily in WR and need to see the targets go up.
In 2021 the Eagles were 27th in the league in yards per route run by their WRs, ahead of only the Bears, horrifically injured Ravens, Daniel Jones-led Giants, QB-less Washington, and the Panthers. DeVonta (1.77 YPRR) and Quez (1.58 YPRR) were both solid and now the Eagles replace Reagor’s 0.67 YPRR with A.J’s 2.50 YPRR.
It is an interesting debate on who has the biggest year this year between AJ and DeVonta (I lean DeVonta), but regardless of who does, the two of them need to pull a ton of targets. Goedert will always be a huge part of the offense and I love Gainwell’s potential here, but the Eagles having two or three legitimate number one targets is huge and needs to prove out.
Opposing QBs time to throw vs. the Eagles pass rush and drive length
I was much more positive on the Eagles pass rush last year than most were. Their sack stats were awful, but as I dove into the pass rush here, it is more complicated. The Eagles overall were 4th in the league in pass rush win rate (a pass rusher beating their block in 2.5 seconds) with both Javon Hargrave and and Josh Sweat being top 5 in the league.
But as I wrote in the link above, opposing QBs threw at a historically quick rate vs. the Eagles. I showed this data before – of all the QBs the Eagles faced last season, only four were above the league average time to throw with most significantly quicker.
Why that happened is complicated, but a lot of the reason is Gannon’s focus taking explosive plays away (best in the league), off-coverage that allowed quick passing, and poor LB play that had one of the worst average depths of tackle in the league. But the pass rush was getting there. But it all totaled to the Eagles being one of the worst teams in drive length allowed.
What happens in 2022? Gannon will always want to force teams to take short passes but every level of the defense should be much better. T.J. Edwards now slotted in as a starter after playing behind Alex Singleton and Eric Wilson, Kyzir White signed, and Nakobe Dean drafted have improved both coverage and run defense at the LB position. The secondary should be better – James Bradberry is a better scheme fit and replaces Steven Nelson, Marcus Epps and C.J. Gardner-Johnson replaces Rodney McLeod and Anthony Harris. The pass rush adds Haason Reddick over Genard Avery who was never a great fit at SAM. And Jordan Davis changes the run defense / coverage math.
I expect QBs to still throw quickly against the Eagles as Gannon’s defense invites it, but if the Eagles defensive adds do what they should, it will make it much harder on opposing QBs to sustain long drives by living on short passing.
How often Jordan Davis is double-teamed
While everybody points to Davis’ lack of college production, Eagles fans understand his role and importance. In the Jets preseason game, Davis was double-teamed on half of his snaps. In the college championship game against Alabama, he was doubled on 58% of snaps.
In 2021, Javon Hargrave had one of the highest double-team rates in the league. Davis will not only improve the Eagles run defense, but if he can consistently pull double-teams, the Eagles defense gets immensely better. Not only will it free up Cox or Hargrave or Sweat or Reddick, but it allows Gannon to put another defender in coverage. It doesn’t really matter if Davis gets to the QB (although I think he will be better than a lot expect through his career) – he needs to pull doubles.
Injuries especially at corner or tackle
Buy more bubble wrap! I hate to even put it out into the universe, but after a couple of historically bad years, the Eagles finally benefited from better-than-average injury luck in 2021. Injury luck is always the wildcard. One of the teams I was most wrong on last year was Baltimore, having them at 11 wins. After starting 8-3, they lost 6 straight as they were devastated with injuries, finishing by far last in the league with 191.2 adjusted games lost.
Howie did an amazing job adding talent this offseason but like any team, they can’t be deep everywhere. In 2021 their secondary was extremely healthy but behind Bradberry, Slay, and Maddox, the depth is very untested. On the OL, tackle should be a bigger concern as backups are Andre Dillard (who starts the year injured and can’t play the right side) and Jack Driscoll (who played better at guard).
This April, I had tackle as a position that would be a surprise draft pick but shouldn’t be. They didn’t take one, but it is going to be a priority. I still have faith in Stoutland and the rest of the line, but OL value has a bigger cascading impact on a team’s overall value than any position besides QB.
The fan base has a ton of reason to be excited for this season. As David pointed out in his last post, the Eagles have turned over a roster to one of the younger ones in the league. The coaching staff is in year two which I think all of us underestimated the growing pains on the scheme fit. There are weapons all over the offense. The offensive line is elite. The Eagles spent more than anybody in the league on the defense, filling gaps at each level. And Howie has again swung back to being loved after a quiet start to free agency.
I think the Eagles have a pretty solid floor this year of around 9 wins and upside to around 13. Last season they did not have outsized “luck” (turnovers, close game records) and there aren’t major areas of regression projected. They have one of the easiest schedules. What could go wrong? Injuries of course can throw a season out the window and I do worry a bit on corner and tackle depth. And Gannon’s scheme still needs to implement with a lot of new personnel, some early season “roughness” would not be unexpected.
But I can’t see the Eagles not winning the NFC East right now.
#FlyEaglesFly