With the additional Covid redshirt years, this year’s draft is one of the largest drafts and has the highest number of older prospects – by my best count, there are 87 players in the draft that will be 24 or older during the 2022 season including some high-profile names:
| Expected Draft Position | Offense | Defense |
| Day 1 | QB Kenny Pickett | EDGE Jermaine Johnson IDL Devonte Wyatt LB Devin Lloyd |
| Day 2 | OT Bernhard Raimann OT Abraham Lucas IOL Luke Goedeke IOL Cole Strange IOL Sean Rhyan TE Jelani Woods | EDGE Boye Mafe EDGE Arnold Ebiketie EDGE Myjai Sanders IDL Phidarian Mathis |
| Day 3 | OT Kellen Diesch OT Ryan Van Demark OT Obinna Eze IOL Luke Fortner IOL Zach Thomas IOL Justin Shaffer IOL Alec Lindstrom IOL Lecitus Smith WR Velus Jones WR Dontario Drummond TE Gerrit Prince RB Ty Chandler | EDGE Dominique Robinson 5T Michael Clemons IDL Eric Johnson IDL Eyioma Uwazurike IDL Haskell Garrett CB Bryce Watts CB Damarion Williams CB Chase Lucas LB Jojo Domann LB Christopher Allen LB Aaron Hansford LB D’Marco Johnson LB Kyron Johnson |
The Browns are probably most recognized for having an age requirement, supposedly avoiding any prospect age 23 or older. Since Andrew Berry became GM in 2020 the Browns have the lowest average age of draft picks at 21.5 years old and are the only team in the league that hasn’t drafted somebody 23 or older.
The draft is getting younger
While the Browns may be stricter than most, the average age of prospects has been dropping for several years, especially in earlier rounds. This is for two reasons. First, more players are declaring early ever since the rookie wage scale was introduced. Players know their opportunity to make money is on the second contract and the sooner – and younger – they can get to that contract, the better off they are.
And second, more and more teams are looking at breakout age and valuing players that show college performance at a younger age. And conversely, questioning players that only breakout in college when they are older, competing against mostly younger players.
But that doesn’t mean older players fall in the draft
But while the average age of players is decreasing, it doesn’t mean older players fall in the draft. Below shows every 24+ year old over the past 5 years and what the difference was between their actual pick location vs. their pre-draft expected draft position (EDP). Above the center line means the player was taken earlier than their pre-draft EDP, below the line they were taken lower than their pre-draft EDP.
The older players are all over but if there is a trend, it is top players – day 1 and 2 – are taken earlier than their pre-draft positioning. And later in the draft, the older players are taken later than pre-draft expectations.
And older players don’t differ in value vs. expected
When you look at player value, the 24+ year olds do not perform worse than the average draft pick. Below shows the same group of 24+ year olds by pick location with their actual value (by AV) vs. expected value for that pick location. Above the center line are players that outperformed their draft slot and below the line are players that underperformed. There is no clear trend which follows the average players drafted.
But maybe stay away from older players at skill positions
Below are the 24+ year old draftees by position and round with their actual value (AV) vs. expected value at their draft position. While these are all smaller sample sizes, the skill positions (WR, TE, RB, CB) all are near the bottom in value vs. expected. The offensive line, and linebacker to a lesser degree, don’t seem to care about age.
What could this mean for this year’s players?
Don’t expect players to fall only because of their age, especially the highly-graded players.
When Devin Lloyd’s age finally came out, many were questioning if he falls. He won’t, at least not because of his age. And there is no concern of him being a late breakout prospect as he has had good years for 2-3 years. Same with other day 1 and day 2 prospects like Arnold Ebiketie, Boye Mafe, and Myjai Sanders.
But there is reason to worry about late breakouts.
I love Jermaine Johnson but his best year was his last year. Maybe he just needed the opportunity to start, but it is a question. Same with Kenny Pickett – he was not a good QB until his 5th year. Jelani Woods has an amazing athletic profile but again only popped at 23. I know Bernhard Raimann is new to football so his senior year breakout may be because he is still learning the game, but he will be 25 to start his NFL career. And others like WR Dontario Drummond, TE Gerritt Prince, WR Velus Jones, and 5T Michael Clemons only stood out in their last seasons and history would say this late breakout is a concern, especially at their positions.
Who could be really interesting?
Besides those mentioned above – Devin Lloyd, Boye Mafe, Ebiketie, and Myjai – I would not worry about age on players like IOL Sean Rhyan, IOL Luke Goedeke, OT Abraham Lucas, IOL Luke Fortner. First, as shown above, there is not a value dropoff on older offensive line prospects and second, each has been good for several years.