Some key highlights:
- The Eagles get Jameson (1-15), Lewis Cine (1-29 in trade down with KC), Perrion Winfrey (2-51), Cam Taylor-Britt (2-62)
- Desmond Ridder is the top QB and goes to SEA at 5 in a trade-up, Pickett at 32 to DET. No other QBs taken in first two rounds.
- Top CBs go high with Sauce to HOU at 3 and Stingley to NYG at 7.
- BAL takes a WR (Garrett Wilson), not DL, at 14
- Players I have in R1 that usually are not in round 1 – Skyy Moore, Ebiketie, DeMarvin Leal
- Players I don’t have in R1 – Tyler Linderbaum, Nakobe Dean, Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Devonte Wyatt
1: Jacksonville – OT Ikem Ekwonu
Everything points towards Aidan Hutchinson and either OL or DL makes a ton of sense, but if I am Jacksonville, I am investing in Trevor and the passing game first. Ickie will be very good for a long time.
2: Detroit – EDGE Aidan Hutchinson
Detroit needs a lot, they aren’t taking a QB here, maybe later but more likely use their two firsts next year and make do in 2022. Aidan is the best player available here.
3. Houston – CB Ahmad Gardner
One of my most “different” picks but he is a perfect fit for what Lovie Smith wants to run – a much more traditional defense than most will run and a focus on turnovers. CBs are tough because of the bust rate and I think Sauce is the most sure one in the draft.
4. New York Jets – EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux
Just take the best defensive linemen here.
Seattle trades 1-9, 2023 2nd to New York Giants for 1-5
5. Seattle (from New York Giants) – QB Desmond Ridder
Maybe they won’t need to leap Carolina if the Panthers trade for Baker or if Seattle knows who Carolina likes at QB, but I don’t know that and for me, I am using my extra draft capital this year to leap up to have my pick at QB. Ridder is the only one I actually kind of like.
6. Carolina – OT Charles Cross
Darnold is awful but with Seattle jumping up and Cross on the board, I am taking a tackle to make the line (and entire offense) better.
7. New York Giants – OT Evan Neal
They are projected to have the 30th rated offensive line in 2023 and need to add here.
8. Atlanta – EDGE Travon Walker
Flip a coin, they project to be the worst OL and DL in the league next year. I always will go tackle if two equal options but the OTs already went and Treavon is the clear best player for them. Mariota, if healthy, is an underrated signing. Invest in the team, figure out QB in the future. I hate planning on next year but the Falcons really may only win 2 or 3 games and be in a good spot next year.
9. New York Giants (from Seattle) – CB Derek Stingley
One of my favorite fits – DC Don Martindale’s scheme is to generate pressure with blitzes and he will run more cover 0 and cover 1 man than anybody else. There is no better corner for this than Stingley.
10. New York Jets – WR Garrett Wilson
Give Zach Wilson some help with another Wilson. It’s a weird year with what flavor of receiver you want, but for me, Wilson is the best overall bet. First in total points per game and route, second out wide, fourth in catchable ball rate, and third in broken and missed tackles per reception. He is the most well-rounded receiver in this group.
11: Washington – WR Drake London
It’s a need and surprisingly a receiver hasn’t been taken yet. If you look at who Wentz targets over his career (Ertz, Pittman), London is the best fit to make the most of their QB situation.
12: Minnesota – DT Jordan Davis
He fits Minnesota, they want a corner and I love McDuffie, but think they have to go Davis here.
New Orleans trades 1-16, 2-49 to Houston for 1-13, 3-68
13: New Orleans (from Houston) – OT Trevor Penning
The Saints leap BAL and LAC to take Penning who could also take a tackle. As Houston I would have taken Davis but decide to trade back now.
14: Baltimore – S Kyle Hamilton
I originally had Baltimore taking receiver and still would like that – so may keep mocking “guys that are Ravens or AFC North” like Jordan Davis. But they aren’t competing with the AFC North, they are competing against Buffalo and Kansas City and the Chargers and now Denver. Their receivers are projected to be 31st and even if you have Bateman with a bigger than expected improvement, they still don’t have enough weapons for Lamar and nowhere near good enough passing game to compete. But Hamilton has fallen and I feel like you just have to take him here.
15: Philadelphia – WR Jameson Williams (EDP 18)
I wasn’t planning on going receiver in the 1st but it is a premium position that they have not been able to get in free agency. Jameson could be WR1 if not for the injury.
My prioritized board at 15: Jordan Davis, Jameson Williams, Garrett Wilson, Trent McDuffie, Jermaine Johnson
16: Houston (from New Orleans) – EDGE Jermaine Johnson
They walk away with the player I probably would have taken at 13 anyway and move up 19 spots in the second.
Green Bay trades 1-22, 3-92 to LA for 1-17
17: Green Bay (from LA Chargers) – WR Treylon Burks
This makes sense for both – Green Bay, one of the most aggressive trade-up teams recently, uses some of their extra draft capital to move up and get their receiver since a run on receivers is on. The Chargers don’t see the value here and move down a bit and pick up another day 2 pick.
Kansas City trades 1-29, 2-62 to Philly for 1-18
18: Kansas City (from Philadelphia) – WR Chris Olave
KC has 6 picks in the top 103 and WRs are coming off of the board. They jump ahead of New Orleans that would absolutely be taking Olave. The Eagles could use a corner or DL here but the value is in a trade down.
My prioritized Eagles board at 19: Trent McDuffie, Jermaine Johnson, George Karlaftis, Trevor Penning
19: New Orleans – LB Devin Lloyd
They got their tackle with the previous trade-up to 13 and now get the BPA. A receiver would have been nice but the value isn’t there and while I think it needs to be improved, it isn’t their biggest issue as most people think.
20: Pittsburgh – G/C Zion Johnson
They made a mistake last year in the first two rounds and despite their reputation for a great OL, they haven’t really invested there in a while. I wouldn’t take a QB here especially with Colbert leaving and their OL is really bad. It was Kenyon, Zion, or Linderbaum here and going Zion who I like most.
21: New England – EDGE George Karlaftis
They could go several directions here (corner, guard, receiver, linebacker), but I’m just taking best player on defense. They were 23rd in the league in PRWR and projected to be bottom 10 in the league at DT and EDGE value.
22: LA Chargers (from Green Bay) – OT Tyler Smith
The Chargers spent a lot and did a really nice job in free agency. I would just focus on adding talent at premium positions. They could use a tackle, Smith may be a small reach here but the last tackle I would take in the 1st.
23: Arizona – CB Trent McDuffie
Somehow they were 5th in the league in pass DVOA with a really bad cornerback group and I think they overachieved their talent. But they also lost their top two corners in the offseason. It is a gift that McDuffie is here.
24: Dallas – OG Kenyon Green
Dallas has had a disaster free agency and needs to seriously rebuild their line. Kenyon gives them flexibility across the line. Lot of people will have Linderbaum here but I’m personally not as high on him – could regret the view but feel Creed was a better prospect and I would go other ways in the 1st.
25: Buffalo – CB Kaiir Elam
They don’t have a ton of holes but could use a corner and think while there is a drop after Sauce, Stingley, and McDuffie, I have Kaiir next – good in man and better in zone (8th in yards per snap in man, 2nd in yards per snap in zone), really good against receivers like Jameson and Metchie.
26: Tennessee – QB Kenny Pickett
They don’t have the draft capital others do and will be good enough to not be in a good spot to take a QB, so take a shot at a much lower cost draft option. I would have liked a receiver here but will go with Pickett.
27: Tampa Bay – DT DeMarvin Leal
As long as Brady is there, they are in win now mode. This may be a bit of a reach but he has upside at a position of need.
28: Green Bay – WR Skyy Moore
I love the idea of double-dipping in the draft – my favorite Eagles draft and statistically their best draft in the last 20 years was 2002 when they triple-dipped on secondary on their first three picks. Too many people move on to the next need and here the Packers get a second top player at a premium position, at value, and a need. I’m higher on Moore than most and think he can go in the 1st – his film is so good and advanced stats are really good on Skyy – 1st in total points per route, 5th in YRR, 2nd in target share.
29: Philadelphia (from KC) – S Lewis Cine (EDP 35)
Would have liked to have taken Kaiir but he went above. While historically not a priority position for the league or the Eagles, safety was one of the most bid-up positions this free agency period. Nobody played as much deep safety but still had as much impact in the run game.
My prioritized board at 29: Kaiir Elam, Lewis Cine, Daxton Hill, Arnold Ebiketie, Tyler Smith, Skyy Moore, Jahan Dotson, Zion Johnson
30: Kansas City – EDGE Arnold Ebiketie
The Chiefs real need is on defense – they were 23rd against the pass and 20th against the run. And they risk losing almost 2,000 snaps on the defensive line in free agency.
31: Cincinnati – S Daxton Hill
On paper they have safeties, but I love this fit. First, Daxton will be on the field and can play all over as Cincinnati wants versatility on defense. Second, who knows what they may have at safety next year as Bates is on a franchise tag.
32: Detroit – QB Malik Willis
With multiple 1sts next year they could get their QB next year, but at 32nd it is a low cost pick.
33: Jacksonville – EDGE David Ojabo
34: Detroit – CB Andrew Booth
35: NY Jets – DT Phidarian Mathis
36: NY Giants – OC Tyler Linderbaum
I may be way wrong on Linderbaum and have him too low, but just wonder where he is worth taking, how many teams need a center (NYG, HOU, CIN, ARI, SF, and CHI is my list), who will like his size, and is he actually better than Creed Humphrey?
37: Houston – WR Christian Watson
38: NY Jets – LB Nakobe Dean
39: Chicago – WR Jahan Dotson
40: Seattle – LB Quay Walker
41: Seattle – OT Darian Kinnard
42: Indianapolis – WR George Pickens
43: Atlanta – WR John Metchie
44: Cleveland – DE Logan Hall
45: Baltimore – DT Travis Jones
46: Minnesota– CB Kyler Gordon
47: Washington – LB Channing Tindall
48: Chicago – OT Bernhard Raimann
49: Houston – LB Christian Harris
50: Kansas City – CB Roger McCreary
51: Philadelphia – DT Perrion Winfrey (EDP 58)
He leads in so many categories – 1st in pressure rate above expectations, 5th in quick pressure rate, 1st total point rate per play. I really wanted Jordan Davis but will take Jameson and Perrion.
52: Pittsburgh – S Jalen Pitre
53: Green Bay – DE Josh Paschal
54: New England – LB Leo Chenal
55: Arizona – DT Devonte Wyatt
56: Dallas – EDGE Drake Jackson
57: Buffalo – OG/OC Dylan Parham
58: Atlanta – RB Breece Hall
Love this fit – they need to improve in so many spots, normally I wouldn’t want a running back with such questions at QB but they have no playmakers on offense.
59: Green Bay – OT Abraham Lucas
60: Tampa Bay – TE Trey McBride
61: San Francisco – OG Sean Rhyan
62: Philadelphia (from Kansas City) – CB Cam Taylor-Britt (EDP 138)
63: Cincinnati – OC Cam Jurgens
64: Denver – LB Chad Muma