It’s that time of year where all the free agency wishlist chatter on Eagles Twitter reads like a kid’s Christmas list – Marcus Williams and Allen Robinson and Chandler Jones and Bobby Wagner. But history shows – and I think we all know deep inside us – that the big free agency deals at best are not worth the money and at worst are giant mistakes.
History shows the mid-range market is the best value
PFF just published a look at all free agent signings comparing average dollars per year (APY) to the player’s Wins Above Replacement (how many wins a player generated vs. a “replacement” level player). Their data shows that the value a player brings vs. the cost is best in the mid-range ($5-10M APY). Higher-end deals generate more value but at a declining rate – a $20M APY player does not generate twice the value of a $10M APY player (on average, it is about 25% more).
From: NFL Free Agency: Historical Success for All 32 Teams
And when looking at which teams have gotten the most value in free agency compared to costs, the Eagles, pound-for-pound, are one of the best teams in the league with only the Patriots generating more value (below data is for 2013-2021). And Howie is squarely in the middle of the league in amount invested, which is largely their philosophy and partly that they have not had as much cap flexibility the past several years.
You can dig into any position and get a similar list with some successes and many more bad signings. But since a veteran WR2 is at the top of our wishlists, here is a look at the recent top-end WR free agency signings and their value:
| Year | Player | Age | APY | Performance |
| 2021 | Kenny Golladay (Giants) | 27 | $18.0M | 14 Gs, 37/76/521, 0 TDs, 63rd ranked WR |
| Corey Davis (Jets) | 26 | $12.5M | 9 Gs, 34/59/492, 4 TDs, 69th ranked WR | |
| Curtis Samuel (WFT) | 24 | $11.5M | 5 Gs, 6/9/27, 0 TDs, injured | |
| Nelson Agholor (Patriots) | 27 | $11.0M | 15 Gs, 37/64/473, 3 TDs, 79th ranked WR | |
| Will Fuller (Dolphins) | 27 | $10.6M | 2 Gs, 4/8/26, 0 TDs, injured | |
| 2020 | Emmanuel Sanders (Saints) | 33 | $12.0M | 14 Gs, 61/82/726, 5 TDs, 43rd ranked WR |
| Robby Anderson (Panthers) | 26 | $10.0M | 16 Gs, 95/136/1096, 3 TDs, 33rd ranked WR | |
| Randall Cobb (Texans) | 29 | $9.0M | 10 Gs, 38/48/441, 3 TDs, 51st ranked WR | |
| 2019 | Tyrell Williams (Raiders) | 27 | $11.1M | 14 Gs, 42/64/651, 6TDs, 71st ranked WR |
| Antonio Brown (Patriots) | 31 | $10.5M | 1 Gs, 4/8/56, 1 TD, released | |
| Devon Funchess (Colts) | 25 | $10.0M | 1 Gs, 3/5/32, 0 TDs, injured | |
| Jamison Crowder (Jets) | 25 | $9.5M | 16 Gs, 78/122/833, 6 TDs, 35th ranked WR | |
| Golden Tate (Giants) | 30 | $9.4M | 11 Gs, 49/85/676, 6 TDs, 39th ranked WR | |
| Adam Humphries (Titans) | 25 | $9.0M | 12 Gs, 37/47/374, 2 TDs, 44th ranked WR | |
| John Brown (Bills) | 27 | $9.0M | 15 Gs, 72/115/1060, 6 TDs, 34th ranked WR |
Out of these 15 top free agency wide receiver signings, the ones you would pick out as good signings are Robby Anderson ($10M), Jamison Crowder ($9.5M), John Brown ($9.0M), and maybe Emmanuel Sanders although he was released after that one season.
What can we expect on the Eagles salary cap?
The Eagles currently have $17M of cap space according to OverTheCap, right in the middle of the league. But their effective cap space, accounting for projected rookie draft pick signings and filling a 51-player roster, is only $8.6M. This will go up as there are some restructures that will make sense (Hargrave is the primary one), but I hope Howie does not overdo restructures and just burden future years with dead cap.
Many will say “the salary cap isn’t real” which is one of the statements that drives me most nuts. Of course deals can be structured to push money into future years and fit players into 2022, but the cap isn’t real until it is… teams pay now or pay later. If you pick right and bet on a player that won’t decline, you are good. But the Eagles are still burdened with over $14M in dead cap space in 2022 for Alshon and Malik Jackson. Last year the Eagles had over $20M in dead cap for players that were gone or injured NOT counting Wentz. So be careful celebrating when we see a restructure hit the news…
I would expect Howie to restructure selective deals and could free up another $8-12M, getting the Eagles effective cap space to around $20M for 2022.
My practical free agent wishlist
Compared to who most people put on their free agent Christmas wishlists, I look at mine and it feels like I am asking for socks for Christmas. I would have bet on Mike Williams but we knew he would re-sign with the Chargers (he publicly said he didn’t want to leave) but I won’t have the same names on my list.
Wide receiver:
Allen Robinson at an estimated $15M? Nope, he will be 29, noticeably declined last year, and even when good he is near the bottom of the league in separation (not what the Eagles need). I’d rather have:
- Jamison Crowder (29 years old, estimated $8.5M) who would be a definite slot upgrade
- Russel Gage (26, $8.5M) who averaged 70 yards per game after Ridley went out.
- If the Eagles did go to the higher end, Christian Kirk (25, estimated $13M year) who is one of the better slots available and young enough that pushing money into future years isn’t too dangerous. Kirk also played for Eagles WR coach Aaron Moorehead at Texas A&M.
Safety:
Marcus Williams at $16M? He is young and a very good safety, but it doesn’t make sense to use the majority of the free cap space on one safety. For me:
- The easiest is probably a one-year deal for McLeod (estimated at $2M).
- Jaquiski Tartt (30, $2.5M), a reliable zone-heavy safety that plays from depth and would fit what the Eagles probably want.
Linebacker:
Bobby Wagner is a surprising name to hit free agency but will probably get around $8M and noticeably declined. For me I’d rather look at:
- Josey Jewell (27, $6M), the 5th highest graded LB last season that can cover but coming off a torn pec.
- Kyzir White (26, $6M), more of a coverage linebacker but solid tackler and would be a solid addition to TJ Edwards and Davion Taylor.
Defensive Line:
This is one area the Eagles will invest in so I would not be surpised to see a higher-end guy here. I won’t speculate on which EDGE they may try for, but lot of interesting names like Haason Reddick (estimated $12M), Ogbonnia Okoronkwo ($3M), Justin Houston ($7M), Jerry Hughes ($6M) Uchenna Nwosu ($9M).
But one underappreciated area to improve is defensive tackle. Not a position often on Eagles fans’ wishlists but it is a position that doesn’t have great depth. I really can’t see the Eagles trading Fletcher Cox, but even without a move there they could use depth.
- Tim Settle (25, $4.25M), Settle is exactly the type of rotational DT Howie covets. The former Hokie and Washington Commanders tackle, Settle has not yet hit 400 snaps in his career but would be the 2nd best pass rusher (13.4% win rate) and highest graded run defender on the Eagles.
Knowing that the multi-year deals will push cap into the future, it is absolutely reasonable to have a free agent class of Crowder/Gage, Tartt, Jewell, Reddick/Ogbonnia, and Settle. The APY for all of them would total somewhere in the $25-35M range.