What Went Wrong Against San Francisco and a Frustration-Induced Look at Draft Needs

Warning: This post will cover a lot of ground, probably should be two posts, and is probably a written-too-close-to-the-end-of-the-game frustration-fueled post.

I came into this year saying I would enjoy the season regardless of record. I thought the Eagles would be better than consensus (I still do) but it is a “transition” year no matter what. And we have a ton of draft capital in 2022 that make this a really interesting year regardless of record. But the loss to SF was frustrating because of how the game went.

• In my preview I said the Eagles should have an advantage vs. their banged up secondary and that didn’t happen. I was impressed with Deommodore who seemed to always be near the catch point but our WRs didn’t seem to be getting open.
• I also said the Eagles should have turnover opportunities on Garoppolo and they dropped two interceptions (along with a missed fumble recovery). Can’t do that.
• They did the little things wrong. Zech messing up the punt downing and sliding into the endzone. Barnett’s penalty. Harris’ PI in the endzone that wasn’t going to be complete anyway. And on and on.
• Bad play calling. Awful set of plays after the Quez deep pass that came away with nothing. But it was way more than that. I am more in favor of the run than the general analytics community but we ran way too much, especially with their secondary. Defense did not disguise and shift.
• And injuries always come, but frustrating to see Brooks out again and BG go down. Graham is out for the season and we will wait to hear on Brooks, but he could be as well.

SF is a much better team than ATL and, on paper, looked very similar to the Eagles. But they ran an efficient offense, both on the ground and with screen-pass after screen-pass. They did what they needed to and just played better.

I won’t pull too many stats as little of it is instructive or surprising. But here are a few:

• Hurts was 6th in the league in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) in week 1 at +11.6 and fell all the way to 26th this week (not counting tonight’s game) with a -7.97 CPOE. He has to be much better here.
• Hurts missed some short passes but where he really struggled was on deep balls – below shows Hurts vs. the League on CPOE by depth of target. Hurts is the orange dots and the league is blue, where Hurts is above the blue markers, he was better than the league and where below, worse. The one high orange marker was the Quez pass. I have defended Hurts but it doesn’t take a re-watch to know his deep balls yesterday were almost all short and looked like “wtf, let’s just chuck it up” passes.

• The Eagles “won” the explosive play battle with 3 runs and 2 passes to SF’s 1 run and 2 passes, but all 3 runs were Hurts scrambling along with the two passes to Quez. Again, why were we running so much?
• For the second week in a row, our safeties graded poorly, with nobody over 62.0 and allowing over a 100 passer rating (more on that later).
• If you felt that SF just threw short passes and screen’s, you aren’t wrong. But a lot of people viewed this as “they didn’t do anything, we beat ourselves”. No, Garoppolo played smart and they took advantage of our coverage scheme. Below is Garoppolo’s EPA by depth of target – first, he didn’t throw anything deep, second, he was above league average on everything 20 yards or less.

• I was impressed with SF’s Deommodore Lenoir during the game and was waiting to see how he graded – he was the top corner in the game at 82.1 on 11 targets! K’Wuan Williams wasn’t great and Josh Norman was awful but we only targeted them four times (counting Norman’s 2 PIs) – how does this make sense?
• The Eagles DL actually graded pretty poorly with only Hargrave and Sweat grading decent. Run defense again was a problem.

But speaking of our draft capital, Indy and Miami both lost, although shockingly Wentz left the game with a knee injury. Think we will be wondering if that is a 1st or 2nd most of the year.

2022 Draft Needs

Which brings me to updated thoughts on the 2022 draft for the Eagles. I don’t think most people this time of year want to be reading on a draft that is still 7 months away but if you are still reading, thanks. But two reasons. First, I write this more for myself on what college games and players to watch. Second, it is a back-door way to get my friend Matt Alkire (@mattalkire) to read mocks (haha – but seriously, he has great year-round prospect coverage and has turned me on to a few of the players below).

So much will change between now and April, but I think one thing that won’t is what the Eagles priority needs are. And most of these won’t change based on how the team plays this year – a lot of our needs are created because of player age and contracts.

My draft priorities in order are:

1. Another offensive linemen
Even if Brooks is not done for the year, his cap hit almost triples from $7M this year to around $19M a year through 2024 – the Eagles will need to make a hard decision here and move on. And maybe Kelce surprises us and comes back, but he likely retires. The Eagles need a center/guard now and will need to think about an eventual RT replacement, but the good thing is Howie prioritizes the lines so we will probably be aligned here.

2. Two corners, one of them has to be taken high
Nelson is on a one year and the Eagles will have the cap space to bring him back but he will either get much more expensive or regress. I doubt the Eagles move on from Slay in 2022 because they need him and there is $7.5M of dead cap next year, but he’s probably not here in 2023. Corners are almost never ready their rookie season and it is well past time we invest there. We will see what Howie does here as he has never viewed CB worthy of high picks.

3. Defensive line, anywhere but need another disrupter
Think they could go DT or Edge, Edge will be a bigger need next year and is a deeper class in 2022. Barnett won’t be extended, Milton can play inside or out, maybe Tarron develops but he’s a late round guy, BG will be coming back from injury.

4. A safety that can cover
I’ve not focused enough on safety but it is a huge need. Who knows how long McLeod will continue to play or play well and he’s only signed through 2022. Harris is only signed this year and has regressed. K’Von has a role but isn’t the cover guy we need. The safety group isn’t good in a time when the importance of safeties is growing.

5. A linebacker
This could go higher but we need to see what we have with all of the young guys here in Davion, Shaun Bradley, Patrick Johnson, and JaCoby Stevens (I know he’s on the practice squad but I will retain some hope there just because of his athletic profile). Eric Wilson is on a one-year and is a liability against the run.

6. Another wide receiver
Not something I would invest in high unless the value is just really something they couldn’t pass on, but think of this as getting another WR that replaces Ward or JJAW.

I’m leaving QB off here because I believe Hurts will be good, but this is what throws the entire thing out if the Eagles need to get a QB. I wouldn’t draft a TE – assuming Ertz or Goedert will be here (but not both) and they will see what Tyree Jackson is this year. Same with RB unless it is a late round flyer.

Mock

I used PFN’s simulator for a 5-round mock and, with Caron’s latest injury, assumed we have Indy’s 2nd rounder. PFN has the Eagles own pick being the 7th pick in each round which I think is too high, but what the heck I left it.

R1-7: Kenyon Green, OG Texas A&M
There is near zero percent chance I don’t take Green or Linderbaum with one of these top picks. Mailata, Seumalo, Dickerson, Lane and one of these two goes a long way to setting up the Eagles OL for the future.
Other options: C Tyler Linderbaum, CB Kaiir Elam, CB Andrew Booth, DT DeMarvin Leal

R1-19: Trent McDuffie, CB Washington
The more I’ve watched the top CBs, the more and more I like McDuffie. All of Stingley, Elam, and Booth were all gone by the 19th pick but McDuffie is ridiculously athletic and may be the most complete corner in the draft. While we probably all have PTSD on Washington corners, McDuffie is different – he’s highly athletic, allowing a 39.6 passer rating this year. At 5’11”, he may drop some as the league wants taller corners.
Other options: EDGE Zach Harrison, S Brandon Joseph

R2-39: Adam Anderson, EDGE Georgia
Crazy fast and has been the most disruptive player on the UGA defense, generating pressures on 25% of his snaps. A bit light at 230 lbs but would be a needed addition with speed on the edge for the Eagles.
Other options: LB Devin Lloyd (went 1 pick before me and a player I would love to have), EDGE Nik Bonitto, WR John Metchie

R2-52: Lewis Cine, S Georgia
Back-to-back from UGA to take a hard-hitting free safety that can do it all. Cine’s projections are all over the board, anywhere from being picked in the 40s to low 100s. He is consistently graded high across coverage, run defense, and tackling.
Other options: EDGE Kingsley Enagbare, DT Jordan Davis

R3-71: Thayer Munford, OT Ohio State
This would be a longer-term pick. Played both LT and LG and gives the Eagles some depth. Driscoll showed some potential but has been hurt constantly and they are cross-training Dillard but nobody can count of that to work out. The only other tackle on their depth chart behind Lane and Jordan is Brett Toth. Munford is the highest graded tackle vs. Power 5 defenses.
Other options: CB Josh Jobe, WR Jalen Tolbert

R4-107: Jermaine Waller, CB Virginia Tech
A longer corner at 6’1″ with ball skills, he had a very good 2019 playing opposite Caleb Farley and a down 2020 due to injuries. He has the athleticism and size, but needs to show it in 2021 and is off to a good start – 3 interceptions and a 64.7 passer rating allowed in 3 games this year. If he continues to have a strong season, he will most likely move up given his size.

R5-139: Reggie Roberson, WR SMU
At this point of the draft, the chance of getting a starter is pretty low and it’s best to look for draft inefficiencies. Roberson’s injury history has knocked him down a lot from where he would likely be looked at. He does not look to be fully back this year yet but he has a lot going for him – good speed, good release especially at this point in the draft, and had production with over 20 yards per reception last year and 5 touchdowns in only 22 receptions before getting injured. With Smith, Reagor, and Quez, somebody like Roberson would not be needed to immediately perform.

Take this for what it’s worth and I’ll change my picks a hundred times, but these are the positions and players I’m watching this college season.