Finally, a preseason game is tonight but it is just preseason. But there are meaningful things to look for. This is just a quick post on what I think are the five most important things (in order of importance) to watch tonight that matter for the season. A lot of this builds on past articles like the below which I’m not going to repeat here in the interest of a quick article:
- The best metrics to watch, or what drives success (here and here)
- What can we expect from Jalen Hurts this year (here)
- And why I think the Eagles will beat their 6.5 win projection (here)
1. How is Hurts’ timing and decision-making?
Why: Accuracy issues are overblown, the two most important issues for Hurts to correct are better timing of throws and limiting poor decisions that lead to turnovers
I am not worried on his accuracy as he was very good in college and a lot of his accuracy issues were due to late throws and pressure. Sirianni has been working on his footwork and working in a lot of rhythm passing. We will see Hurts being asked for quick timing throws tonight and if he improves here, he has taken a big step up from last year. And, tonight we will see Hurts able to scramble more than camp which is a huge part of the value of his game but also the source of many of his bad decision throws. He has to reduce turnovers as he was really bad here last year (and in college).
2. Are Reagor, Fulgham, and Quez separating?
Why: Separation and YAC are the main drivers of WR success
Top receivers all separate and/or create with the ball after the catch. If you do neither, you won’t be good (which is why JJAW just won’t be good). DeVonta won’t be out there tonight but I will be watching (as mush as possible on a non-All 22 TV feed) if Reagor, Fulgham, and Quez are separating. All three have good separation ratings which is why I am high on all of them.
3. How do we defend Chase Claypool?
Why: Claypool is the exact type of player (WR or TE) that the Eagles have historically been unable to cover
Claypool lit the Eagles up last year (7/110/3 plus a TD running) and had a very good first preseason game (3/62/0 in only 15 snaps). He represents the type of mismatch the Eagles have consistently had trouble with at 6’4″, 238lbs, and 4.42 speed that created explosive plays on over 12% of his targets. There is a lot more to be focused on with the pass defense, but a really good first view will be how we defend Claypool, both who defends him (Nelson or Avonte or Slay) and how we scheme to defend him.
4. How does the OL look?
Why: The OL has to rebound this year as it was the source of so many other issues last year
OL success comes down to Pass Block Win Rate (PBWR) and Run Block Win Rate (RBWR). This line will be good and will be healthier just because it would be a statistical miracle to be as injured as they were last year. PBWR is holding a block for at least 2.5 seconds and this will be seen how much Hurts needs to escape the pocket – last year he did it a ton (sometimes when he didn’t have to, but the pressure last year was awful). And the Eagles will run more – we want to see our line creating holes so that our backs are gaining yards before contact.
5. How does Tyree look in a real game?
Why: Tyree’s height and speed are unique in the league and he is the biggest opportunity on the Eagles to be a future mismatch issue
Not just latching on to this year’s camp darling as I have written why Tyree is important (We know what Ertz and Goedert are and I honestly am not interested in any other TE not named – the rest are TE3s. Can Tyree get open and how is his blocking? I am expecting his blocking to still be pretty rough.