A non-chalk 2026 mock draft knowing that the 1st round is half wrong every year

A disclaimer right from the start: This is not what I think will happen in the draft, and it isn’t meant to be a hot take for clicks.

This is a fun exercise I do every year to force myself out of “chalk” thinking, use what we know about draft hit rates, and come up with a “what-if” 1st round mock draft, putting down my thoughts on who will disappoint and who will surprise.

I have written in the past that almost half of the first round is wrong every draft. By “wrong” I mean that the top 32 players taken don’t turn out to be the 32 best – or even the 50 best – NFL pros. Here are the stats:

  • On average, half of the 1st round aren’t top 32 players and 40% aren’t top 50 players – this means 12 of the 1st round picks aren’t top 50 pros every year
  • The top 10 picks have better hit rates with two-thirds being top 32 players and 75% being top 50 players
  • The bottom half of the 1st round is worse, with only slightly more than 40% being top 50 players and a third not even being top 100 players
  • The positions with the worst 1st round rates are EDGE, CB, and WR
  • The highest hit rate 1st round positions are OT, IOL, and RB (surprisingly)

This data is pretty consistent year to year and it’s important to put this into real draft terms. If teams drafted perfectly, it would mean:

  • 12 day two players would find their way into the 1st round
  • 5 day three players would surprise as 1st round picks

Here is a view of where the best players (top 32 by NFL value) come from in the draft, showing that while hit rates aren’t high, top players come from anywhere in the draft every year.

So, because I love being critical of mindlessly being beholden to big board rankings, I’m creating a mock draft that forces deeper picks and betting on my guys, embracing that the 1st round is wrong every year.

My 1st round non-chalk mock

Here it is… fourteen picks outside the current top 32 including six from day three. One in the top 10 comes from day two and nine from the back half of the 1st round come from outside the top 32.

So this isn’t just a random mock draft out of Greg’s head, here is some reasoning and why I made some of these decisions.

Consensus guys I dropped

A lot of these guys I actually like – Jermod is my CB1, Cashius Howell I like a lot, and KC Concepcion is a guy I would have on my R1 Eagles list – but every year there are guys we are sure about that miss. Here’s my list and a quick why:

  • EDGE Keldrick Fault (13) – poor college pressure production
  • TE Kenyon Sadiq (14) – size, ability vs. man coverage
  • WR Denzel Boston (18) – lacks separation ability
  • OT Caleb Lomu (20) – run blocking, competition level
  • CB Jermod McCoy (21) – injuries
  • EDGE Cashius Howell (22) – size, EDGE hit rates
  • OT Kadyn Proctor (24) – weight, movement
  • EDGE Akheem Mesidor (25) – will be 26, late breakout
  • WR KC Concepcion (26) – drop history
  • DT Caleb Banks (28) – tackling, average production
  • LB CJ Allen (29) – coverage limitations limit three-down ability
  • DT Kayden McDonald (30) – poor film vs. future pros
  • QB Ty Simpson (31) – really bad under pressure
  • SAF Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (32) – tackling, competition

Some thoughts on the adds from day two and three

Quarterback

Only a third of the time the consensus top QB is actually the best pro and the last two years for this non-chalk mock, I leaned into this fact and had Jaxson Dart and Jayden Daniels as the first two QBs. This year, I am going chalk, though, with Fernando Mendoza.

And, just over one good NFL QB comes out per draft (there are 20 guys you would say you could “win with” over the past 15 drafts, or 1.3 per draft). This is highly varied though, with a third of years there being none, a third only one, and a third two or more.

I rolled the dice (and will probably regret it) by adding a second R1 QB in Cole Payton who has a lot stacked against him (small school, general hit rates) but also some quality traits in a bad QB class (dual-threat, arm, and handling pressure which few good NFL QBs lacked in college and few have outside of Mendoza and Payton in this class).

The poor R1 hit rate positions: EDGE and CB

Each of these positions has 1st round hit rates around 50% when you look at the last 15 drafts. Over the past few drafts, while 1st rounders like Shemar Stewart, Myles Murphy, Maxwell Hairston, and Terrion Arnold missed, lower drafted guys like Kamari Lassiter, Cooper DeJean, Byron Young, and Tuli Tuipulotu hit.

My bets this year:

  • EDGE Derrick Moore – his high pressure rate projects well
  • WR Omar Cooper Jr. – high floor, reliability and playmaking
  • WR Eric McAlister – off-field issues but he produces
  • CB Julian Neal – another high floor guy, sound tackling defender

Some other guys

Just to round out notes on a few other choices:

  • OTs – This is true every year but even more so this year that a lot of the top OTs aren’t going to stay as OTs. I moved up Blake Miller and Max Iheanachor, neither of which have that concern
  • IOL – It’s the position with the most good pros coming from outside the 1st and Chase Bisontis, Emmanuel Pregnon, and Brian Parker II project well
  • TE – if you follow me, you know the concerns I have on Sadiq, I’m picking Eli Stowers who in the right situation will be the best TE in this class as well as personal favorite Tanner Koziol

Again, this is meant to be an interesting mock this time of year when everybody’s mocks look exactly the same. And, second, it’s a thought exercise, forcing myself to play the historical odds that every year, almost half of the 1st round is wrong.

So, enjoy it and my ask is when you do your mocks, don’t be afraid to grab a lower guy and take them high… it’s a vote on the player and actually helps the consensus boards recalibrate.

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