I’ve written many times on this — our consensus mocks, especially this time of year, are always wrong. Big boards are still not accurate, and fans naturally overly rotate to immediate needs.
Right now, Oregon’s TE Kenyon Sadiq is running away from the field as the by-far R1 “lock” pick for the Eagles. And it’s become a bit of a lightning rod on socials between the Sadiq ride-or-die-ers and those who think it’s the wrong pick (myself included).
The thing I love about the NFL is roster construction strategy because there aren’t right answers — two people can dramatically disagree and both have well-reasoned strategies and approaches. And the thing I hate most are the people who are so dismissively sure of their view on a prospect and make it well known.
Teams, with all the resources they could want — inside intel we will never have, interviews, more player access, GPS tracking, and a team of scouts spending their lives evaluating these guys — get 40% of the 1st round wrong every year.
We all have our opinions — I certainly do — but here I’ll give my best “reasoned view” on why I would choose a different path than the current consensus mocks.
The consensus fan mock
First, let’s start with what the consensus top picks are for the Eagles right now:
R1-23: TE Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon
R2-54: OT Gennings Dunker, Iowa
R3-68: CB Chandler Rivers, Duke
R3-98: EDGE Tyreak Sapp, Florida
How I think about a first round TE
Full disclaimer, I am a strong adherent to positional value.
But I also realize that positional value isn’t absolute – last year Jihaad Campbell would not have been my pick (I was vocal I would have taken CB Will Johnson) but Jihaad wasn’t bad value because he was a LB. Picking at the end of the 1st, my likeliest draft position (DL) was so heavily drafted that value was depleted while LB1 was still sitting there.
And I won’t say “Howie would never take a TE in R1” as he has done what many said he wouldn’t the past two years. But here’s why I would go a different direction:
TE has the lowest positional value (below RB)
Positional value is what a comparable player costs in free agency versus the expected quality you get at that draft slot. By that measure, TE is the lowest-valued position — below SAF, LB, and RB.
That doesn’t mean you never draft a TE or that there aren’t great ones worth taking. But with premium picks, you need true top-tier talent because you’re passing on WRs, EDGEs, or OTs that cost twice as much in free agency.
TE has a slower growth curve in the NFL
Tight end is one of the slowest-developing positions in the league, ahead of only QB.
What the data consistently shows:
- Most TEs don’t break out for 2–4 years and often don’t reach full value until Year 3
- Their peak comes later (around age 28) and lasts longer than most positions
Yes, there are exceptions like Brock Bowers. But for every early breakout, there are far more highly drafted TEs who take years to deliver — or never fully do.
Are we sure Kenyon Sadiq is one of these top-of-the-league guys?
Too much discourse lives in “this guy is great” vs. “this guy sucks.” The better question is always about variance: how wide are the possible outcomes, and how strong is your conviction? Most people focus on conviction. Far fewer account for risk.
Is Sadiq “can’t miss” and a clear TE1? I don’t think so, but I also don’t think this year has a top TE. Here’s my quick rundown:
Pluses
- High-end athlete — and TE is heavily athleticism-dependent
- Strong highlight flashes
- Solid blocker
- Young with upside
Concerns
- Size outlier: small for a TE, slow for a WR
- Frequently schemed open; inconsistent 1-on-1 wins vs man
- Disappears too often vs top competition
- Wide performance splits between strong and weak opponents
This also looks like a return to an average TE class after last year’s outlier group. Including 2025, drafts average about 2.6 “really good” TEs per year (roughly Freiermuth/Otton level or better). Excluding that class, it drops to 1.8. Two of the last ten drafts produced none.
Even if Sadiq is TE1 this year, where does he rank historically? I can’t put him above Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Oronde Gadsden, or Jaheim Fannin from last year’s class. Is he clearly a better prospect than Freiermuth, McBride, LaPorta, or Bowers at their draft moments?
If you think he is, that conviction makes the pick defensible. I’m just not there — and neither are many others.
An alternative mock draft and what I would do
Why it makes sense to solve TE in free agency
Kyle Pitts is the perfect embodiment of TE development curves and positional value. After an explosive rookie season, he took time to develop before breaking out again at 25 — exactly how most high-end tight ends progress.
His projected market sits around $12–16M per year. Even at the top of that range, paying ~$16M AAV for 2–3 prime years of a top TE is a bargain when OT, EDGE, and WR all command $30M+ annually for comparable impact players.
If Pitts gets tagged or the Eagles don’t want to commit that level of cap, the alternatives are still strong:
- Isaiah Likely (~$9–10M)
- Cade Otton (~$8–9M)
- Charlie Kolar (~$3–4M)
- Or even a Goedert return (~$12M)
The strategy is simple: buy the TE and draft the premium position.
Use Round 1 on CB or OT — positions that are far more expensive and far harder to solve outside the draft.
My alternate mock draft
If the smarter roster-building approach is to address TE in free agency and use premium picks on premium positions, here’s the path I’d take:
R1-23: OT Monroe Freeling, Georgia
Players considered: WR KC Concepcion, OG Vega Ioane
Now is the time to plan for Lane’s successor with him likely in his final year and growing risk that Mailata’s career could be shorter than expected. Big Fred is likely gone, and our backups have played nearly a full season of snaps across the past two years.
Freeling is big, mobile, experienced at both LT and RT, and still only 21. He posted the third-lowest blown pass block rate in this class (1.4%) and the best zone-blocking success rate among top prospects — a skill set that should matter even more under Mannion.
Bottom line: unless you don’t believe in the player (and I do), OT is a significantly stronger pick here than TE for both need and long-term value.
R2-54: EDGE Joshua Josephs, Tennessee
Players considered: OG Chase Bisontis, WR Elijah Sarratt, CB Chris Johnson
I’m higher on Josephs than most, but this is simply best player available at a premium position. He’s a similar mold to Nolan: explosive, disciplined, and the type you don’t pass on at this range.
It’s a deep EDGE class worth investing in. Josephs brings a 34% win rate, 16% pressure rate, and 13% run stop rate — trailing only David Bailey, Arvell Reese, and Romello Height among top prospects.
Maybe we re-sign Jaelen Phillips. If not, EDGE becomes close to a must-draft. Even if we do, Jalyx Hunt’s eventual extension isn’t far off.
R3-68: WR Ja’Kobi Lane, USC
Players considered: WR Antonio Williams, CB Davison Igbinosun, OC Jake Slaughter
Ja’Kobi isn’t the typical RAS-profile WR the Eagles target, but his differentiated winning traits are compelling. He creates separation for his size, wins at the catch point, and has a large functional radius.
Philly still needs another WR even if AJ Brown returns, and Lane offers a cost-controlled future depth option with upside.
R3-98: OC Logan Jones, Iowa
Players considered: CB Malik Muhammad, CB Julian Neal, DT Skyler Gill-Howard
Doubling up on OL may feel like a luxury with Jurgens still here, but Jones provides needed insurance given Cam’s back concerns. Hit rates in this range aren’t great, and in a strong interior OL class without a clear top center, this is solid value.
Jones has the mobility the Eagles want, the third-highest graded zone blocking in the class, zero blown pass-pro reps this year, and just eight pressures allowed over the past two seasons.
R4-122: CB Julian Neal, Arkansas
Hitting on CBs in this range is difficult, but Neal offers a solid floor with physicality, tackling, and run support.
R4-136: TE Tanner Koziol, Houston
Even after addressing TE in free agency, they need two — and I’m not leaving this draft without Tanner Koziol.
R5-151: SAF Jalon Kilgore, South Carolina
Listed as a CB but functions as a versatile safety/nickel. Strong athlete with the positional flexibility the Eagles value.
R6-179: QB Cole Payton, North Dakota St.
Yes, the NDSU QB history is mixed, but Payton’s traits are intriguing. Beyond the rushing ability and arm, his pressure metrics stand out: 111 passer rating under pressure, a 2.8% turnover-worthy throw rate, and just one interception on 51 pressured attempts.
Is my mock right or better? Who knows, we’ll know in a couple of years… Am I convicted on the guys above after the past couple months watching them? Yes, at least several of them. Do I have also pause on some of these picks? Absolutely.