What the Eagles can expect in the 2026 draft: Hit rates and expected value

Every draft is different and ultimately what matters is drafting good players. But there’s a lot of history of hit rates and player value that is worth understanding (and teams know it).

Here I’ll give a view on what we can expect at each of the Eagles’ 2026 Day 1 and Day 2 picks:

Expected player value at our picks

Below I’ll show what the “average” player value is at each of the Eagles’ 2026 Day 1 and Day 2 pick locations. As a refresher on player value percentiles:

• Elite players are generally 85th percentile and above; this includes guys like Jalen Carter (95%), Dallas Goedert (90%), Brian Branch (85%)
• Above average players are 70th percentile; examples include Jordan Davis (84%), Keeanu Benton (83%), Kenny Gainwell (71%)
• League average players (think replacement level) fall above the 40th percentile, including Derek Barnett (54%), Trevor Penning (51%), and Tyler Steen (44%)
• And poor players are below 40th percentile, usually either backups, highly injured, or failing to play at all, examples include Jalen Reagor (35%), Zech McPhearson (9%), and Johnny Wilson (0%)

At pick 23, you are expected to get a very good player with high hit rates. OT and WR are the positions drafted most heavily here, accounting for 7 of the past 10 picks.

Expected player value:	68th percentile player
Hit rates:	73% elite or above-average players 13% misses
68th percentile players:	EDGE Jalyx Hunt CB L’Jarius Sneed OT Andrew Thomas WR Gabe Davis
Last 5 picks (value):	2025 – WR Matthew Golden (63%) 2024 – WR Brian Thomas (96%) 2023 – WR Jordan Addison (87%) 2022 – CB Kaiir Elam (46%) 2021 – OT Christian Darrisaw (62%)

Since 2000, the Eagles have only picked once at 23 which I hate to even mention as it’s one of their most notorious draft picks – in 2011, they took 26-year-old fireman Danny Watkins. A much better, and more recent, pick was 2024’s Quinyon Mitchell, just one spot earlier.

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At pick 54, you can expect a slightly above average player, hit rates drop and a third of picks are misses. EDGE and SAF are the two most popular picks here.

Expected player value:	57th percentile player
Hit rates:	47% elite or above-average players 33% misses
57th percentile players:	EDGE Derek Barnett SAF Coby Bryant CB Asante Samuel Jr. EDGE Baron Browning
Last 5 picks (value):	2025 – IOL Anthony Belton (71%) 2024 – DT Michael Hall (26%) 2023 – DT Tuli Tuipulotu (92%) 2022 – WR Skyy Moore (24%) 2021 – EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo (51%)

In 2011, the Eagles also picked at 54 and took… SAF Jaiquawn Jarrett, adding to the misery that was that draft class. But they have picked three times at 53 which brought us Miles Sanders, LeSean McCoy, and Jalen Hurts. So, they need to flip picks with the Steelers and we’re guaranteed a Hall of Famer.

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The story at pick 68 is that you can still get good players, but the certainty of it drops a lot. 40% of picks are still above average players but miss rates become the majority, hitting almost 60%.

Expected player value:	44th percentile player
Hit rates:	40% elite or above-average players 57% misses
44th percentile players:	IOL Tyler Steen SAF Marcus Epps TE Greg Dulcich CB Michael Carter II
Last 5 picks (value):	2025 – CB Darien Porter (76%) 2024 – OT Caeden Wallace (7%) 2023 – QB Hendon Hooker (0%) 2022 – CB Martin Emerson (63%) 2021 – IOL Jalen Mayfield (22%)

Philly hasn’t picked at 68 since 2000, but they did take DT Bennie Logan at 67, a 78th percentile player, outperforming expected value at the draft slot by quite a bit. Also near that pick was Sydney Brown at pick 66 and Tyler Steen at 65 (a very solid player and the exact value player to expect at this location).

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Chances of getting a really good player are about one-in-three and miss rates remain the likeliest outcome.

Expected player value:	41st percentile player
Hit rates:	30% elite or above-average players 60% misses
41st percentile players:	CB Kelee Ringo WR Jalen Tolbert TE Luke Schoonmaker IOL Christian Mahogany
Last 5 picks (value):	2025 – IOL Caleb Rogers (28%) 2024 – LB Payton Wilson (52%) 2023 – DT Siaki Ika (0%) 2022 – RB Brian Robinson Jr. (72%) 2021 – IOL Quinn Meinerz (84%)

In 2013, the Eagles took QB Matt Barkley at pick 98, a forgettable pick. A much better pick near there was Jalyx Hunt in 2024.

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If I were Howie, here’s how I’d be thinking about each pick

I’ve never seen Eagles mock drafts move around as much as they have this year for the first pick – two months ago as Adoree was struggling, it was all CB… last month, it was solidly TE Kenyon Sadiq… and currently it’s a mix of WR, EDGE, and OT.

We know the Eagles’ needs well, this year they are many, but Howie will (almost) always follow his board and not reach for a need.

The strong positions don’t align great with Eagles needs…

For the positions the Eagles (and fans) covet, WR and CB are the two with strength in the 1st with OT and EDGE having better depth than top-ends:

• Strongest position groups: LB and SAF are probably the two best positions, with WR being better than originally expected
• Deep classes: EDGE lacks the top end of last year, but has good depth
• Good top end: CB and RB have top-end talent but drop off
• Average: TE, OT, and IOL are average classes, with the IOL class possibly getting better as OTs get moved inside
• Weaker groups: DT is really weak as is QB

The positions of interest I’d prioritize and where

Obligatory caveat of “you don’t force a pick and take the best player” aside (which is correct), based on how the positions look and what Howie will care about – which should be drafting premium positions ahead of need – here’s how I’d think about it:

• R1: CB and WR are likely the best options, CB because that’s where you will get a CB2 and WR because of its strength and positional value. OT could make sense if you like UGA’s Monroe Freeling. And while not best positional value, one of OGs Vega Ioane and Emmanuel Pregnon should be available here.
• R2: Seems to be the sweet spot for OTs given the lack of top-end talent with guys like Blake Miller and Max Iheanachor fitting the profile the Eagles look for. WRs like Omar Cooper, Zachariah Branch, Ja’Kobi Lane, and Germie Bernard will be available. You’ll have to be selective on CBs, if a guy like Brandon Cisse falls, he could be value.
• R3: With two thirds, positions like TE, EDGE, IOL, and SAF are really interesting here. I love names like EDGE Derrick Moore, TE Eli Stowers, and IOL Chad Bisontis.

Trading up should be in play…

My good friend David Neisz just wrote his first mock “Eagles Mock Draft 1.0: Finding the right pieces on offense” and does exactly what I would do – move up for a top CB.

Normally I don’t like trading up, but this year I’d be aggressive if CB Jermod McCoy fell. If he’s there at 16, I’m calling Detroit who doesn’t have a R3 pick. If he drops to 16 for some reason (injury, testing), he won’t get past the Vikings (pick 18), Cowboys (20), and Steelers (21) who all need a CB.

Going 23 to 17 equates to a value difference of pick 80, so it probably means something like 23 and 68 for 17 and 118. If expected value at pick 68 is Marcus Epps or Tyler Steen, do you give that up for what you expect to be another CB1? I do.

… and, trading down should also be in play

Yeah, that sounds obvious, they could trade up or down, not trying to be obvious. But my point is really more that for the positions that the Eagles should want, they either need help / luck to get (CB) or they could be reaching at a weak position (OT, IOL).

And this may be the likeliest scenario where the CBs and OTs the Eagles want are either not there or a reach at 23, leaving them looking at WR, EDGE, or IOL as the best players. All good options, but none of those they need to take at 23.

Every year, there’s a trade down in this area, it’s one of the most popular top pick locations for movements. But as I look at every team’s situation, it may be a bit more difficult (but not impossible) to trade down this year. More to come on that.