Previously, I looked at potential trade down scenarios from pick 23 and it could make sense to trade down if Howie just doesn’t see the value there. There is definite interest in moving up this year for the right guy (myself included), but let’s see if it’s likely and for whom.
The history of trade ups from around pick 23
In my last trade down article, I said that picks in the low or mid 20s are one of the most popular trade down locations high in the draft. But it’s the opposite with trade ups – there just aren’t many examples to look at.
The reason why is how steep the draft pick curve still is in this area – teams holding picks in the mid or upper teens are often not willing to trade down, knowing they have a better shot at a top talent, and demand “actual” compensation that makes the draft value charts we all see online cute but not real.
NOTE: Of the nine trade ups from pick 20-25, 80% of the time the trade up team had to pay a premium, with the average premium being over a 20% overpay.
2024: The quant GM makes a puzzling move up (on a pick they already moved up for)
I find myself talking about the Vikings often. Their (recently fired during the writing of this) GM, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, makes incredibly puzzling draft capital moves, made even more puzzling because he is supposed to be an analytical, ex-Wall Street quant that should know the value of draft capital.
Since he became GM, the Vikings have had the 5th least draft capital in the league, dead last in player draft value, second worst draft hit rate, 4th highest miss rate, and lead the league in spending on top-tier free agents (which has kept the Vikings afloat but that bill has now come due…)
In 2024, ahead of the draft he gave up a 2nd, 6th, and future 2nd for pick 23 to give themselves two 1sts in preparation for needing to move up further for a QB. Not a terrible plan. But they ended up not needing to bundle that pick at 23 for a QB as they took J.J. McCarthy at 10 with their original pick (with a one spot trade up).
After just trading away their 2025 2nd and now with the pick at 23 burning a hole in his pocket, he saw defensive players drop with a run on offense and traded up for EDGE Dallas Turner.
- Vikings receive R1-17
- Jacksonville receives R1-23, R5-167, and a future 3rd and 4th
It’s a weird trade up as the Vikings definitely drafted for need and then didn’t even take the best EDGE. The Vikings, interested in WR, still walk away with Brian Thomas.
2022: The Bills make a small trade up (reach) for a corner
A less interesting trade as far as movement but really interesting one from a positional value and draft strategy perspective. Like Minnesota above, and I won’t care what the Bills would say, they moved up here out of panic and immediate need at CB to take Kaiir Elam:
- Bills receive R1-23
- Ravens receive R1-25, R4-130
They lost Levi Wallace to free agency and their other starting CB Tre-Davious White was recovering from an ACL, so CB was a need. But CB was drafted heavily ahead of their pick, and instead of going with the value that was there, the Bills panicked and reached for a borderline R1-2 guy, passing on guys like Tyler Linderbaum, Tyler Smith, and Devin Lloyd, all prospects graded higher than Kaiir.
2021: A big move up for interior OL costs two 3rds
The Jets made a big move up to grab an elite OL prospect to help protect their new QB, Zach Wilson. The cost was two 3rds:
- Jets receive R1-14
- Vikings receive R1-23, R3-66, R3-86
This is an interesting one for the Eagles this year – the Eagles also have two thirds. While it looks like a massive overpay (a 45% premium), it highlights the rising hit rate risk in the draft as the Vikings got basically no value with the two 3rds they picked up (Kellen Mond and Wyatt Davis).
2018: The Bills move up for a linebacker at an affordable price
Familiar trade partners make another trade here… The Bills were desperate for LB, had Tremaine Edmunds ranked as a top-10 talent, and wanted to move ahead of the Chargers at 17 who were presumably highly interested in Edmunds.
- Bills receive R1-16, R5-154
- Ravens receive R1-22, R3-65
Of all the examples, this is the one the Eagles would hope to make as it’s a rare one that wasn’t a massive overpay (approximately an 11% overpay) and the pick worked out.
Takeaways from these trade-ups:
- They are rare and they are overpays
- Most of the trade-ups were bad outcomes, but not all were bad process (Jets investing in OL for a new QB, the Bills smartly limiting price to get an elite LB)
- The worst ones were ones where teams reached on a position of need
- As long as teams didn’t deplete their future draft capital or include any premium picks, the resulting cost was generally worth it
What are trade up scenarios for 2026?
In the 1st, Howie has traded up (8 times) way more often than down (4 times) as he generally has a “go get your guy” mentality.
If Howie’s going to trade up, it’s going to be for a position he values and a player he loves. Who could be on that list this year? My list will obviously differ from his, but I think it’s a really small list:
1. Offensive Tackle
I still think this is the likeliest pick in R1 and while the simulators and big boards today still have all the Eagles-style OTs available at their pick, that will change. The guys I see them liking are:
- Monroe Freeling, Georgia
- Blake Miller, Clemson
- Max Iheanachor, Arizona St
Why do I have these guys in trade-up scenarios, who are all projected at or below the Eagles pick? Because I think they all rise like the other athletic, upside OTs did in recent years. Last year at this time, OT Armand Membou was projected late R2 and ended up being the 7th player off the board. In 2024, in January OT Taliese Fuaga was projected right around the Eagles pick but went 14. In 2023, OT Broderick Jones had the same exact rise as Fuaga.
Freeling has been rising and is already projected near the Eagles pick. Miller has been graded day two forever but Daniel Jeremiah just put him at 23 on his big board. Iheanachor was buried early day 3 but will surely rise after his Senior Bowl showing.
If Howie decides OT is a priority and these guys rise, he won’t hesitate to move up for the guy who he thinks will be Lane’s replacement.
2. Cornerback
This would be the “I can’t believe this guy is still there” (and probably biggest) trade up. The top two guys, Mansoor Delane and Jermod McCoy, are easily expected to go higher, but the draft has played out weirdly for CB in recent years, with lower ranked guys being taken over others for various reasons (Jahdae Barron and Maxwell Hairston over Will Johnson, Emmanuel Forbes over Christian Gonzalez). I can’t see Mansoor falling, but it would not surprise me to see Avieon Terrell go over Jermod, who won’t be an elite tester and is coming off an ACL.
- Jermod McCoy, Tennessee
- Mansoor Delane, LSU
3. Guard
Never thought to be a pick in R1, let alone a trade up candidate, but I could see a small move similar to the Bills in 2022 if the best value on the board is an elite OG prospect:
- Vega Ioane, Penn St
What could potential trades look like?
Small move up
A small move up, which is the most likely if they do move, would be cheap and I wouldn’t think twice about the cost. In 2022, the Bills gave pick R4-130 to move up two spots – the Eagles have two 4ths this year, (picks 122 and 137), assuming a moderate overpay these would move the Eagles up a couple of slots (I’m using the Fitzgerald-Spielberger trade value chart for values):
Picks R1-23 and R4-137 (1918 points) for:
- Steelers R1-21 (1457 points), or a 24% overpay
- Cowboys R1-20 (1482 points), a 22% overpay
Picks R1-23 and R4-122 (1976 points) move these up slightly to around a 26% overpay, still very reasonable.
To put the expected value in context, the “average” player value around the Eagles 4th round picks is Jack Driscoll or Sydney Brown. You gladly pay that price to move up.
A big move up…
What if Howie was more aggressive and wanted to move higher? These are a lot more difficult as the price is more variable and depends on what the trade-down team wants, but I’ll match to some teams that may have a desire to trade down:
Detroit Lions at pick R1-17:
Of all teams in this range, if we need to make a move up, the Lions are the top target for me for a couple of reasons. First, they should want to gain draft capital – they don’t have their R3 pick, have a really tight salary cap, and need to invest in the OL, EDGE, and secondary, with both OL and EDGE having better depth than top end talent in this draft.
Second, if a CB falls and the Eagles want to move up, this is an ideal spot because the next several picks are all high-likelihood CB picks (Vikings at 18, Cowboys at 20, and Steelers at 21).
- R1-23 and R3-65 for R1-17 would be a 31% premium, in line with historical premiums
- R1-23 and R3-98 for R1-17 and R6-203 would be a 10% premium, closer to the 2018 Bills trade comp
I’ve talked about this several times, it feels tough to give up a R3 pick, especially pick 65, but the expected player value at pick 65 is exactly Tyler Steen. The three times Howie picked around there have brought us Andrew Mukuba (64), Tyler Steen (65), and Sydney Brown (66). Around pick 98 we have gotten Jalyx Hunt (94), Rasul Douglas (99), and Davion Taylor (99). Some good players, but probably only one difference-maker in the bunch.
Who else could make sense?
Obviously, anybody could decide to move down, but the other teams in this range don’t look likely:
| Pick | Team | Fit and Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Buccaneers | This move probably costs too much… Jason Licht, Tampa Bay’s GM, puts a premium on draft capital and this probably looks like the Jets 2021 move that cost both 3rds |
| 16 | Jets | The Jets have a TON of draft capital with 10 picks this draft, including two 1sts and two 2nds – they will prefer a good player to more capital. |
| 18 | Vikings | The Vikings finally have some draft capital with 11 picks and four in the first three rounds. We are likely competing for the same positions with Minnesota, especially CB, and, like the Jets, they probably prefer a good player vs. more capital. |
| 19 | Panthers | Carolina is a possibility, they have been willing to move around the draft and could be interested in positions like LB, EDGE, and OL that may be worth a trade down. |
The bottom line…
Across the league, a trade-down from 23 is easier and much more likely to get done, but with Howie, I give a trade-up from 23 a much higher probability.
Howie uses later round draft capital as ammunition in trades, he has good capital this year, and the Eagles have a couple of premium position needs that Howie will overwhelmingly value “getting his guy”. Howie can often get cute with his pick trades, but that’s usually later in the draft – in the 1st, he will get his guy.
OT will be a priority, not only because Lane’s timetable is probably close, but because they aren’t going to be able to re-sign Fred Johnson, who is determined to get a starting job somewhere. Over the last two seasons, a backup OT has played a lot, between 560-850 snaps, meaning even with Lane’s return this pick is likely going to play meaningful snaps. I really believe what they do at OT drives the rest of the draft.
CB I view as less likely as it will be secondary to the OT decision, but if Howie just doesn’t have one of the OTs graded that high and one of the top CBs is there, he will make a move.
Thanks for reading and Go Birds!