My last couple of contract and cap related articles got a lot of positive feedback (thank you all!) and I should probably leave well enough alone… but here I will dive into the often misunderstood, usually hated concept of “positional value”.
Full disclosure up front, I am absolutely a positional value adherent. And so are many GMs including our own Howie Roseman. But am I an absolutist? No. I thought Kyle Hamilton was worth drafting in the 1st in 2022… signing Saquon Barkley was brilliant… and I, like everybody, thought Zack Baun as the top priority this off-season.
But positional value does matter. Here’s why.
Explaining positional value
Simply, positional value doesn’t mean positions like LB, RB, or TE are unimportant, it just means that they are cheaper to replace in the open market (free agency) than premium positions.
And since the draft makes no distinction on positions – teams pay the same contract no matter if they draft a quarterback or a kicker – positional value turns into maximizing a fixed asset (draft picks) against variable costs (the cost to replace positions in free agency).
If you’re familiar with the gameshow “Supermarket Sweep”, it’s a good, rough analogy for positional value (if you aren’t familiar with the show, basically contestants have a set amount of time to race through a supermarket and grab as many items as they can fit in their carts).
If you had a minute to grab groceries, would you head for the chips and pasta or straight for the steak or diapers (or eggs…)? Of course you would first grab the steak or whatever high-priced item you desired.
Well, you may not like it, but in the draft TE, RB, and LB are the pasta and DT, EDGE, OT, and WR are the steak (QB is more like grabbing a lottery ticket with its insane potential payoff but rough odds…)
Quantifying positional value
There’s been a lot of great work done on positional and draft surplus value by others like Ben Baldwin from The Athletic and Kevin Cole from UnexpectedPoints, and I’ll use a similar approach to theirs to attempt to visualize positional value.
The below shows expected contract value (y-axis) by pick location (x-axis) in the draft across the different position groups (and a fully interactive chart with more detail and prior years is available here: https://phillycovercorner.com/draft/insightpickvalue.html)
To get this, I’ve used the average of the current top 5 contracts by position as the “top of the market” and scaled that through the draft based on historical player value by position. For example, if at pick 30 draft history shows you are expected to get a 60th percentile player, the “value” at that position above would be 60% of the top end of the market.
First, like anything, this is not absolute or perfect. Second, the draft is about taking good players and there will absolutely be times when a player at a non-premium position will be outsized value.
But if you go back and place free agents and extensions by their player value (and I have), many come out pretty close to the above. And it makes sense as players negotiate their contracts using current contracts and their relative performance as comparisons.
Some practical examples
Here’s where I’ll anger many.
The best example is a real one in this upcoming draft. The Colts need a TE and you cannot find a mock draft that doesn’t have them taking Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland at pick 14.
Here’s how to think about positional value and the Colts options:
The positional value drafting a TE…
Taking a TE at pick 14 is “worth” $14.2M. To show this, if you needed a TE and went to free agency to get one, here were the top options:
Evan Engram 2-year deal at $11.5M AAV
30 years old and an injury shortened his 2024 season, but he had back-to-back seasons of around 900 yards each in the prior two seasons and had a similar pace in 2024.
Juwan Johnson 3-year deal at $10.25M AAV
Johnson is 28 and ended up re-signing with the Saints, but put up over 500 yards and one of the better average depth of targets among TEs, even with the disaster that the Saints offense has been.
Versus the positional value of an EDGE…
The Colts need a TE but they need a lot. To compare, let’s say they instead draft an EDGE which they also desperately need. At pick 14, an EDGE is “worth” $25M , $11M of added value compared to TE, and recent contracts confirm that and more. If you can even get an EDGE…
This off-season, the top EDGEs were Josh Sweat at $19.1M, Chase Young at $17M, and the Colts own Dayo Odeyingbo at $16M. None are elite pass rushers. Myles Garrett obviously reset the market, hitting $40M with his extension, and Maxx Crosby topped $35M, but neither hit the open market.
Last year you could at least get some top guys – Danielle Hunter signed for $24M (and re-signed this off-season for an eye-popping $35.6M), Leonard Williams for $21.5M, and Jonathan Greenard for $19M.
What do you get at EDGE for the same price as a top free agent TE? This year it would have been 32-year old Leonard Floyd with his 10% win rate for $10M or maybe-done 33-year old DeMarcus Lawrence at $10.8M coming off a Lisfranc.
The Colts options…
Warren and Loveland (my TE1) are good options, you just have to think of the relative options and value. To continue with the TE vs. EDGE scenario, what would be the Colts’ best move (I’m using current big board rankings for players available near their picks):
| Option | Picks |
|---|---|
| TE then EDGE | R1-14: Tyler Warren / Colston Loveland R2-45: Nic Scourton / JT Tuimoloau |
| EDGE then TE | R1-14: Jalon Walker / Shemar Stewart R2-45: Mason Taylor / Elijah Arroyo |
| Trade | Trade R4-117 for Dallas Goedert or Michael Mayer |
As the draft goes on, positional value obviously decreases in importance. At the Colts R2 pick, that $11M difference between EDGE and TE is cut in half, down to $5.6M (at pick 45, TE is worth $10.1M and EDGE is $15.7M).
Here are the positional value curves zoomed in to the first 90 picks for TE, CB, EDGE, and DT to show the differences:
The not-great history of drafting TEs high…
Positional value will get questioned on TEs as much as any position because most people love TEs. But besides being cheaper to replace in free agency, they just aren’t as impactful on the game as other positions. They are valuable and there’s a place to draft them, it’s usually just not high and history shows that.
2021 the Falcons took Kyle Pitts at R1-4 over Ja’Marr Chase and Penei Sewell. In the 2nd round they could have had Pat Freiermuth.
2019 Detroit took TJ Hockenson at R1-8 over Brian Burns, Christian Wilkins, and Montez Sweat, which were draft needs as well. They instead gave out the 2nd biggest free agency deal that year to DT Trey Flowers which worked out for one year.
In 2017 Tampa Bay took OJ Howard at R1-19 over needs at EDGE, CB, and OT with guys like Tre’Davious White, Garrett Bolles, Ryan Ramczyk, and TJ Watt on the board
What would I do?
My first choice would be to trade a 4th for Goedert (which is the Eagles rumored price) and I had this in my off-season mock. You are getting a proven top veteran TE at $14M to support Anthony Richardson. Could Warren or Loveland be better? Sure. Is it certain? Absolutely not.
If I couldn’t get the trade done, I would much rather walk out of the draft with Jalon Walker (or CB Will Johnson, WR Emeka Egbuka, or CB Jahdae Barron) in the 1st and Mason Taylor in the 2nd than Tyler Warren and Nic Scourton.
And remember, the way to think about this is it’s a R1 EDGE, R2 TE, and $11M of effective cap space value as they still have to fill these other needs.
What does it mean for the Eagles pick?
Here are the positional value numbers for the Eagles current first two picks at 32 and 64:
| Position | R1-32 | R2-64 |
|---|---|---|
| Off-QB | $31.2M | $12.6M |
| Off-WR | $20.9M | $13.5M |
| Def-ED | $19.1M | $11.8M |
| Off-T | $16.7M | $11.0M |
| Def-IDL | $16.5M | $11.0M |
| Def-CB | $14.9M | $10.0M |
| Off-IOL | $14.3M | $10.2M |
| Off-RB | $12.8M | $9.9M |
| Def-LB | $12.7M | $9.4M |
| Def-SAF | $12.1M | $8.3M |
| Off-TE | $11.7M | $8.2M |
Even at the end of R1, there are still pretty big differences in value of $4-7M between TE and SAF at the bottom and positions they should be interested in like EDGE, DT, and OL.
I think this year, more than most, Howie is going to let the strength of the board decide his pick. But if I had to guess, I continue to think the most likely scenarios are:
Day 1: Trenches…
If I had to put money on only one guy, I’d probably bet on Ohio State’s Donovan Jackson who played OG and OT and is known as a great team guy. He could be a future Lane replacement but even if he stays inside, IOL is a position whose positional value has dramatically changed, doubling the overall cap growth since 2021:
DT may be the strongest position group this draft and they’ve shown some interest in Walter Nolen, Alfred Collins, and TJ Sanders. Nolen has some off-field concerns that they will figure out and I still think goes much higher, but this is a position that is extremely expensive to get outside the draft.
For those hopeful for a SAF, LB, or TE, I just really don’t see it here. Since Howie returned in 2016, the highest a non-premium position was taken was Dallas Goedert at pick 49 in 2018 – the other 12 picks were DL (4), OL (2), CB (3), WR (2), and QB (1).
And if you are saying “well, he never drafted a CB in R1 and then did last year”, the huge difference is Howie has always valued CB, he just didn’t get one in the draft… prior to drafting Quinyon and DeJean, the Eagles had a top 3 most expensive CB room in the league. And Baun I believe is an exception to his rule enabled by how cheap his secondary has gotten, not a shift in philosophy.
Day 2: Trenches (again) but maybe a TE or SAF
I really expect back-to-back line picks and whatever wasn’t taken in the 1st will be taken now. So if they go Donovan Jackson in the 1st, one of my favorites in this class is TJ Sanders who is projected anywhere from early 2nd to end of the 2nd – if he’s there, I think the Eagles take him as they have shown a lot of interest in him.
If they didn’t get OL in the 1st, I’m sure they take somebody on day 2 and guys like Marcus Mbow and Dylan Fairchild at guard or a developmental OT like Ozzy Trapilo or Charles Grant will be day 2 guys.
Safety would be a really smart pick, not only is it a need, but it’s been getting more expensive recently and it may be the best position (along with DT) for the Eagles to lower future cap hits with Reed up for free agency. Andrew Mukuba and Xavier Watts are two that would make sense although I think they may really have their eyes on Malachi Moore later.
EDGEs like Bradyn Swinson, Josaiah Stewart, and Femi Oladejo all fit what they want and will go near their next two picks.
And TE is going to be a pick somewhere in this draft. It’s a strong class with strength on day 2 with guys like Gunnar Helm, Mason Taylor, and Terrence Ferguson both of whom they have shown interest in.
Here’s a quick mock draft using the above and matching with players they have shown good interest in:
Just a couple more weeks till the draft… Go Birds!