I don’t like the immediate “Grading every draft pick” articles for a couple of reasons. First, the draft is hard and nobody knows how these players will pan out. Second, it always feels like criticizing the kids when we should be nothing but extremely happy for them on the biggest night of their lives so far.
But my favorite thing to think about, get into conversations on with all of you and others, and write about is the philosophy and approach to team-building – the draft, free agency, salary cap, and what GMs value and prioritize.
We won’t know if these players will pan out, but we can evaluate the organizational philosophy that is on display with these picks. So let’s go – here are three teams that I take issues with:
Dallas: A fragile organizational philosophy
R1-12: OG Tyler Booker
I didn’t like this pick which most agree with, but putting aside whether you like Booker or not or if he turns into a good player or not, this pick is maybe the best example of the fragile team-building approach of Jerry Jones.
What do I mean by this?
The Cowboys have been a good (regular season) team for most of the past decade, really only having a bad year in 2020 when Dak went down and an 8-8 year in 2019. But the two things to know about Dallas are: they have drafted well and they don’t spend on free agents.
Jerry had a run of very good drafts…
Since 2016, Dallas has been one of the best drafting teams (4th best in the league in value over expected). Below shows their actual draft value (blue bars with the lighter blue being playing time adjusted value) vs. expected draft value based on their draft capital (orange line)
In this stretch, they had some really impactful picks at important positions, including getting s starting QB in R4, two top-of-their-position guys in Micah and CeeDee, and several starters later in the draft including guys like DaRon Bland, Osa Odighizuwa, and Tony Pollard.
And Jerry doesn’t spend in free agency…
Jerry Jones is last in the league in free agency spending over any period you look at – 3 year, 5 year, 10 year. In the past 5-years, Dallas has averaged spending a TOTAL of $25.1M AAV per year (Howie is at $44.9M as a comparison).
Since 2020, Jerry has signed ZERO Tier 1 free agents (5% or above of the cap) and only TWO Tier 2 free agents (2.5-5.0% of the cap). The only other GM close is Joe Hortiz from the Chargers who has only been in role since last year.
Why is this important?
As I wrote in my positional value article, maximizing the cap value of your picks does matter. They needed OL but they also needed a WR, DL, and CB which are all way more valuable positions. Based on historical value, you are getting around $16M of value for a guard at pick 12, way below the $26M for an EDGE, $22M for a DT, and $28M for a WR.
Jerry should have signed his OG in free agency and could have signed Patrick Mekari, Mekhi Becton, Kevin Zeitler, or James Daniels for $8-12M per year, way less than the value of pick 12. But Jerry doesn’t spend in free agency.
And when you don’t spend, you HAVE to continue to draft well because there’s no other way to keep the roster afloat. And they did for years. But no team drafts perfectly all the time.
Atlanta: Bad teams do dumb things
R1-26: EDGE James Pearce
Where to start with the Falcons… year after year they shred draft capital and set cap space on fire…
Of the four 1st rounds picks he has made, two were on a RB and TE, both at pick 8. Since Fontenot was hired in 2021, ATL is 4th worst in the league on contract value gained in the draft, under-performing expected value by 10% and it’s because they drafted non-premium positions high.
Which brings us to last year when he signed Kirk Cousins to a 4-year, $180M free agent contract with $100M guaranteed… and then drafted a 24-year old QB in the 1st round… and then decided to keep Cousins this year and pay his roster bonus…
They have the highest draft miss rate over this period at 19% and the 5th lowest draft value vs. expected…
And this year… Jalon Walker was a great pick but then they trade their 2nd and next year’s 1st to the Rams to move back into the 1st round to take James Pearce. No matter how you value it, it’s an overpay:
- ATL gave up 2.5 to 3x the draft capital value depending on which value chart you like, the equivalent of an extra mid-R1 pick
- ATL lost $3.8M of expected contract value (OTC trade value calculator)
Even for a good player, this is a massive overpay. But beyond that, there were significant off-field concerns on Pearce concerning his work ethic and desire to play… maybe those are true, maybe they aren’t, but in a deep DL class, the Falcons traded up to take on more risk at a position with the highest bust rate in the draft.
Minnesota: Keeping it afloat with free agency
R1-24: OL Donovan Jackson
It may sound crazy that I’m listing Minnesota here as the Vikings went 14-3 record in 2024 and have talent on their roster, but they have some looming issues:
- The oldest roster in the league
- One of the worst future cap positions, $34M over the cap in 2026 and bottom 3 in the league in both 2026 and 2027
- The lowest amount of draft capital in the 2025 draft with only 4 picks (picks 24, 97, 139, and 187)
They have the worst draft performance in the NFL since Kwesi took the job in 2022, a staggering 44% below expected draft value. If you scroll through their draft picks over his tenure, it’s a lot of red with really only two hits – Jordan Addison and Christian Darrisaw out of their 34 picks.
Kwesi is the opposite of Jerry Jones as the league’s 4th top free agency spender, averaging a massive $77M AAV per year to bring in key pieces like Jonathan Greenard ($19M AAV), Byron Murphy ($18M), Will Fries ($17M). He’s signed more Tier 1 free agents (7) than any other team in the year averaging over $28M AAV on each.
I actually really like Donovan Jackson as a player but Kwesi cannot keep depending on free agency and needs to draft well. And with only 4 picks this year, Kwesi should have traded down and picked up extra capital.
Again, they have a ton of talent and a lot comes down to what they have with JJ McCarthy, but Kwesi has had four consecutive really poor drafts and you just cannot sustain that way.