I swore I wouldn’t write on Myles Garrett as I hate writing the same stuff out on every Eagles site, but a post by @fonzz on Bluesky (another great Eagles follow if you aren’t already) got me thinking. So here goes on how to think about the Myles Garrett to Philly rumors and why I am putting little faith in them.
Fitting Garrett under the cap with…
Yes, Howie-truthers always respond with “he will figure it out”, but there’s no magic to it – he just pushes money into the future. Could the Eagles fit Myles? Yes.
Myles consumes $20M of the $22M free 2025 cap space
Myles is due $20M in both 2025 and 2026. The issue is the Eagles have $22M in effective 2025 cap space after the expected moves (moving on from Darius Slay and Bradberry and Graham retiring).
And we haven’t signed Baun, Isaiah, or any other free agents and the Eagles will need more OL depth, another nickel, and another LB even with Baun.
I’ve gone through how Howie structures long-term contracts multiple times, assuming how Howie structures contracts for Baun and Rodgers, adding Myles puts the Eagles $5M over the cap in 2025.
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current effective cap (after projected departures) | $22M | $70M | $126M |
| Projected extensions (Davis, Nolan, Jurgens, Carter) | $9M | $34M | |
| LB Zack Baun | $4M | $7M | $10M |
| CB Isaiah Rodgers | $3M | $4M | $6M |
| EDGE Myles Garrett | $20M | $20M | |
| Updated effective cap space (adjusting for top 51 contracts) | ($5M) | $30M | $76M |
Just extend Myles…
Yep, they could. But he’s already 30 and you would be extending him at most definitely the same or higher AAV past his 32-year old age. Right when the extensions for Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter, and Nolen Smith will be hitting and growing.
A trade would cost the Eagles more than other teams…
I won’t even get into the issue of if trading several high picks for Garrett is worth it. I don’t think it is, but it’s opinion – Myles is a great player and I’m not taking that away from him.
The issue is you can’t just look at what people are throwing around as projected trade packages.
Even though we are talking about the Browns, other teams aren’t dumb. They will clearly de-value the Eagles trade assets vs. other teams because the expectation is the Eagles picks will be at the end of rounds for the foreseeable future. Nobody is talking about this but it is very real.
Opinions differ on what the Myles trade would cost, but I will assume a 1st and two 2nds which is the absolute floor (it’s likely higher). To put the issue for the Eagles in context, here are the draft values for equivalent picks for an “average” team (likely to pick in the middle of rounds) vs. the Eagles:
| Average Team (assume ~pick 16) | Eagles (assume ~pick 28) | |
|---|---|---|
| Draft pick valuation: | R1: 1,000 R2: 440 (each) | R1: 660 R2: 300 (each) |
| Total draft value points: | 1,880 | 1,260 |
That 620 point difference is basically worth pick 30, meaning the Eagles would need to offer two 1st plus two 2nds to equal an average team’s offer of one 1st and two 2nds.
The Eagles don’t leak…
Remember all those rumors about the Eagles trading for AJ Brown ahead of the 2022 draft? No…? The Eagles are one of the most secretive teams and rarely if ever leak what they are doing. Period.
Let’s lay out the reasons to believe or not believe the growing rumors around Myles Garrett and the Eagles:
Reasons in support of the rumors:
- Media outlets pushing an interesting story
- The Eagles actually leaked (not likely)
- Hey, maybe the price will be much lower than everybody expects
Reasons to not the believe the rumors:
- The Eagles don’t leak
- The rumors let out or push are almost always self-serving and mis-direction, what if this is to drive his price up?
- Being in discussions is sometimes to gain information, not for the actual trade
- All the realities above of the cap issues and draft capital cost of acquiring Myles
The reasons to believe are all hope and delusion.
I’m sure Howie is having a conversation with Andrew Berry, I think he talks on every potential trade target. But it is much more likely to gain information than anything else…
In 2021, the Eagles “showed interest” in Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance ahead of the draft, leading many to believe Howi was seriously looking to move up as questions swirled around Hurts. But the real reason? Howie was trying to understand the market for QBs ahead of their pick which he did masterfully…
The Browns side of the equation
I’ve softened on my view here a bit.
The Browns are already $31M over the cap in 2025 (effective cap space) and moving Myles before June 1 is another $16.5M hit to the cap, putting them $47M over the cap.
The only way they fix their situation is to restructure Deshaun as he has a $46M salary in 2025 – you could push almost all of that into a bonus and move a bunch of it into the future.
This makes absolutely no sense as they need to move on from Deshaun as soon as possible, but the one reason I have softened a tad on this is they gave him a fully guaranteed contract anyway, so they are paying it one way or another.
They are likely restructuring Deshaun without a Myles trade to get under the cap, but could be more aggressive here. There’s just little incentive for them to trade him prior to 6/1.
Could I be wrong? Sure. Do I like Myles as a player? Absolutely, he’s one of the best pass rushers in the league. Would I think it was a good use of cap and capital for the Eagles? No. Do I think it will happen? Hell no.
Fly Eagles fly as always!