Explaining Howie Roseman’s focus on the future cap

In my free agency preview, I was probably more bearish than most, having Howie bringing back only Zack Baun and Isaiah Rodgers while letting Milt, Sweat, and Becton all leave. I knew the looming extensions would weigh on this off-season, but Howie surprised even me a bit, so far bringing in nobody much above league minimum contracts.

But the overall reasoning still holds and it’s why there was never a chance of somebody like Milt returning. And while it seems to be more widely appreciated why decisions still a year or two away are impacting this off-season, I wanted to dive in a bit more to visualize the “problem” Howie is facing.

Every team in the league would trade places with the Eagles who have very good players, mostly young and signed for several years, at QB, both WR spots, RB, four OL positions, several on the DL, two young CBs, and LB. But while enviable, Howie has a problem trying to keep them all together and not get into a cap mess.

Below shows the Eagles core and how much of the cap they collectively consume. Offensive core players are in blue, defensive players in orange, and everybody else needs to fit in the grey:

The assumptions I’ve made are the following:

• The future cap grows 8.5% which is it’s recent average
• Players cap hits are what are currently on the books excluding any “non-real” years like Hurt’s $97M final year cap hit
• Extension numbers for the core guys are my numbers and will be wrong obviously, but they will be close

In 2025 the Eagles core consumes 44% of the cap and next year grows to just over 51%, both very manageable numbers.

But in 2027 as the Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith extensions hit and the other contracts continue to grow, the core hits almost 60% of the $328M cap.

And then, even assuming Baun and Saquon leave and Lane Johnson retires in 2028, the core approaches 70% of the cap for the 2028 season for just 11 players. The remaining $120-130M of free cap space may look like a lot but that means 40 cap-eligible players share that total.

Again, it’s a good problem to have but it shows why the Eagles weren’t going to sign a $25-30M multi-year contract like Milt’s or (ridiculously) trade for Myles Garrett.

Of course, all those contracts above won’t execute as shown but what’s likely on Howie’s mind as he stares at this beloved core headed for nearly 70% of the cap?

Maintain room for the core to stay together for a Super Bowl window

“If you said to me, in the next five years, we’re going to go to the playoffs four [times], we’re going to win one world championship, and then we’re going to have a horrible year, would I sign up for that? Yes.” – Howie Roseman

Howie has the riches of drafting incredibly well over the past 2-3 years and is going to try to keep this window open as a Super Bowl contender. And we see that today as he isn’t committing any major dollars externally and prioritizing the coming extensions of his key guys.

Collect more draft capital, not trading it away, to give him more shots at replacing guys

“When you draft well, you have young, cost-controlled players who allow you to keep your core together. If you don’t, you’re always chasing.” – Howie Roseman

The desire to trade away multiple high picks for Myles Garrett was wrong for several reasons, but one that most had exactly wrong in my opinion is the Eagles will want more, not less, draft capital over the next couple of years. And this is also why he is taking advantage of this off-season to add so many 2026 compensatory picks.

They have one of, if not the best, cores in the league and don’t need a superstar player to “keep the window open”… they already have a Super Bowl contending roster for the next several years and need to take as many shots on young, cheap draft hits coming in behind these guys.

Trading away picks for a high-priced contract, no matter how good the player is, would absolutely put them in a future salary cap mess.

Expect some restructures and also some tough decisions

“If you start paying guys for what they’ve done instead of what they’re going to do, you’re going to get yourself in trouble real quick.” – Howie Roseman

Howie is also not going to let a handful of players consume 70% of the cap. Guys like Hurts, Mailata, and Landon will surely get restructured and give some easy cap relief but there will also be some tougher decisions. Who could they be and when do their contracts allow movement?

Jordan Davis is an under-appreciated piece of the DL and most, including me, assume he gets extended. But with DT prices growing as fast as any other position, what if Howie looked to this incredibly strong DT draft class this year instead and avoided another future $25M AAV deal?

Reed Blankenship is a guy I don’t even have included above but is probably going to have a stronger market than most think. He may not be affordable after 2025.

AJ Brown is under contract through 2029 but will be 30 years old in 2027 and moving on from him then is $12M of savings and only $10M of dead cap.

Zack Baun is a guy I – and everybody – had as the top off-season priority and Howie delivered. But he’ll turn 29 years old near the end of 2025, could he be somebody traded before his 3-year deal is done if Howie has some young guys develop?

I always say that Howie drafts for needs 1-2 years out and a lot of this is focused not only on projected losses, but also on where he needs to invest to get position groups cheaper. What could be some interesting cap-focused picks in the upcoming drafts?

2025 Draft: Lessening the cost on defense

The Eagles are expected to take EDGE given the lack of depth there, but could Howie first prioritize a Jordan Davis or Reed Blankenship replacement, both position groups that are strong this year?

R1: DT Kenneth Grant
He’s projected ahead of the Eagles pick in the early or mid 20s, but what if the better pass-rushing DTs like Derrick Harmon and Walter Nolen go ahead of him, pushing him down? It’s such a great DT class and Grant would be an ideal and cheap replacement for Jordan Davis. If not Grant, a day 2 option would be Alfred Collins.

R2: EDGE Josaiah Stewart
If you follow me, you know there’s no way I’m making 2025 picks and not including Josaiah Stewart. Here I take the guy I think is the best Fangio fit in this class. Another option would be Bradyn Swinson who could be one of the best values in this class.

R3: SAF Kevin Winston Jr.
The Eagles probably need to grab another safety no matter what, but what if they take somebody with an eye towards replacing Reed in 2026? Winston tore his ACL early this year but would have been in conversation for one of the first SAFs taken.

2026 Draft: Getting ahead on key skill positions

Next year, could receiver and cornerback be priority positions to stay ahead of expensive and incredibly difficult to get skill positions? We have no idea where these guys will slot so don’t focus on the names as much as the picks:

R1: WR Carnell Tate / Jordyn Tyson
Two WRs projected to be late 1st round guys, both could be WR3s and future compliments to DeVonta Smith ahead of potentially moving on from AJ Brown after the 2027 season.

R2: CB Mansoor Delane / Elliott Washington
It’s obvious Kelee Ringo has his shot at CB2 this year but if he plays well, we already need to start thinking about replacing him as he’s only signed through 2026. The Eagles won’t be able to pay Quinyon, Cooper, and Kelee.

---

What a few cap-focused moves would do to the forward cap

Here’s what their updated cap structure would look like if they restructured Hurts, Mailata, and Landon, made some of the picks above to avoid just a few extensions (Jordan Davis, Kelee Ringo), and moved on from players when the time is right (Zack Baun, AJ Brown):

The core grows but peaks around a very manageable 50% of the cap in both 2027 and 2028.

Are these the moves that will happen? Probably not, but Howie’s going to be looking to make moves like this – while he seems aggressive with the cap, he isn’t going to let himself get boxed in to a mess.

How often do you see Howie getting force into unplanned, undesirable cap casualty moves? Never. When you look at his contracts, the guys that leave do so when the contract was set up for them to go.

Go Birds and thanks for reading.