I’ve looked into age trends in the draft in the past but a recent discussion with @PhillyWannaBGM on BlueSky (follow him if you don’t already, not sure there is a better film / scheme follow for Eagles fans) got me to do an update as Covid has distorted the draft in so many ways, with player age being one of the biggest.
Draft picks have been getting younger (until Covid)
Below shows the average age of draft picks for the entire draft, top 3 rounds, and 1st round only. Here’s what to take away from it:
- The average age of players in the draft has been decreasing since 2000
- The age drop accelerated after 2012 when the rookie wage scale was introduced as players wanted to get to the 2nd contract as young / soon as possible as that is where they made real money
- The youth movement is even greater earlier in the draft with R1 almost a full year younger than the overall draft average
- Covid reversed this trend dramatically, particularly in later rounds, as players were given another year of eligibility
- The rise of NIL may also be contributing to recent changes as R1 picks continued to get older in 2024 while the rest of the draft looks to be returning to prior trends
The early rounds are dominated with younger players…
There will be some selection bias in here – better players will enter the draft earlier and better players will be drafted earlier. But the overall trend holds – the early draft is dominated by younger players:
- The 1st round is younger, averaging almost 26 picks aged 22 or younger, 5 picks aged 23, and barely over 1 pick a year aged 24 or older
- The 2nd round is similar to the 1st, with a bit more 23 year olds but still very few 24 year or older players
- Across the top 100 picks, the draft averages only 6.6 players taken aged 24 or older
- Later rounds balance out with fewer and fewer 22 year olds
…even after Covid
It’s a different story post Covid, right? Not at the top of the draft. Overall there are more older players in the draft as kids stayed in school longer, but they are generally landing later in the draft:
- Since 2021 the 1st round is still very young, averaging only 1.5 players 24 years or older
- The 2nd round is the same, averaging 2.3 players 24 or older
- In the top 100 picks it finally starts increasing with 8.5 older players taken
And younger players have consistently outperformed older players
Looking at the past 10 drafts, younger players outperform older players in the NFL at every position group. Below shows player value in the draft (using Pro Football Reference’s AV) normalized by their draft capital to ensure we are properly weighting players. For each position group, value is broken apart by age (24 and older prospects, 23 and younger, and 22 and younger).
- At every position, younger players had better NFL careers than older players
- The younger players are the more valuable – 23 and younger players dramatically better than 24 plus, but 22 and younger was even better than the 23 and younger
- The worst positions to draft older were QB (36% worse for 24 year olds), WR (29% worse), RB (24%), and EDGE (17%)
- The least affected positions were IOL (only 5% lower value), surprisingly CB (9%), LB (9%), and DT (10%)
How I think about prospect age
If you follow me online, you will see me (half) jokingly dismiss older prospects, and while being 23 or 24 doesn’t mean a player won’t be good, there are real things to consider:
- Some older players were “late breakouts”, meaning their good college years were when they were competing against guys 4-5 or even 6 years younger than them
- Their post draft development is more limited than younger guys
- And teams may have them for shorter spans than younger players
Late breakout is usually my biggest issue. Some recent 24-year olds like Braden Fiske, Keion White, and Will McDonald all are good pros but all were also very good college players for 3-4 years, playing very well when they were 20 and 21.
Other guys taken that were late breakouts were Phidarian Mathis, Luke Schoonmaker, and Jeff Gladney, none of which have had good pro careers yet. Age guarantees nothing as there are late breakouts that succeed and young guys that don’t, but it is something to consider.
What could it mean for the 2025 draft?
While all ages aren’t out yet for the 2025 class, here are ages of some prominent prospects at the draft:
| Age at Draft | Players |
|---|---|
| 23 years old | CB Shavon Revel CB Trey Amos CB Jahdae Barron EDGE Kyle Kennard EDGE Princely Umanmielen EDGE Jordan Burch EDGE Jared Ivey DT JJ Pegues DT Aeneas Peebles IOL Grey Zabel IOL Wyatt Milum DT Alfred Collins DT Omarr Norman-Lott SAF Xavier Watts WR Jayden Higgins WR Xavier Restrepo WR Savion Williams WR Tre Harris QB Shedeur Sanders RB Cam Skattebo |
| 24 years old | DT Darius Alexander SAF Sebastian Castro CB Darien Porter IOL Tate Ratledge QB Dillon Gabriel |
| 25 years old | LB Demetrius Knight |
A few to call out:
Darius Alexander – This is how the whole discussion started on a BlueSky post. A popular Eagles pick and a Senior Bowl standout, he’s a guy I, and many, like. His age isn’t officially out but appears to be 24 and turning 25 during the rookie season. And he has some late breakout to him, popping in his 2023 and 2024 seasons at Toledo. I still like him a lot but think R1 buzz is a bit high.
Trey Amos – He will be 23 March 3rd, so he’s on the younger side of the “old guys” list and a guy that seemed to only get noticed this year at Ole Miss. But he had a good junior season at Alabama and then a couple good years prior at LA Lafayette. He’s still a R1 corner for me.
Omarr Norman-Lott is a guy I wrote about in a recent DT article, he’s been very popular recently and there’s a lot to like. But he’s a guy I feel hype has gotten a bit ahead of – his 30% pass rush win rate gets quoted a lot, but he only played 17 snaps a game this year. And at 23 years old, he’s a classic late breakout. There’s some risk here.
Darien Porter – An interesting guy due to his height and speed combination, he’s not only late breakout but he really hasn’t even played until 2024… he has 24 career targets at corner prior to his senior season and only another 17 targets in 2024. Question with Darien is less age and just body of work.
If you like guys like Princely Umanmielen, Jahdae Barron, Jared Ivey, Xavier Watts, Grey Zabel, and Tre Harris before, go ahead and continue liking them as they all strong together several good seasons.