Expect a defensive “bull market” this year.
After last year where a crazy 23 picks in the 1st round went to the offense, this year will see a reversal as the top end of the premium positions are strongest on the defensive side (DT, EDGE , CB) while QB and OT, both typically heavily drafted in the 1st, look to be really weak.
And this has implications for the Eagles – what could be best value on day 1 and day 2, what positions align to needs, and what their best options could be. Here are my thoughts on five positions of interest:
If the Eagles want DL (and they will), it’s the perfect year for it
We should already expect the annual tradition of Micah Parsons shaking his head as another amazing prospect falls to Howie and it will most likely be on the DL.
Maybe it’s freak height-weight-speed EDGE Shemar Stewart or the 3-down disruptive DT Walter Nolen or chess piece Jalon Walker… we don’t know who yet, but bet on Micah not being happy. Again.
DT may be the best position on day 1 and it’s also good on day 2
With all “take BPA” caveats aside, this is where I go. It’s a long-term need, it’s getting so expensive, and it’s likely going to be the best player available.
DT is always a bit more “what you want” than other positions, but it’s a really strong class no matter what you are looking for.
If you want a pass rushing DT:
- Mason Graham can impact both passing and rushing
- Walter Nolen is not as far behind at DT2 as most think – he’s this year’s Byron Murphy II
- Omar Norman-Lott is projected mid day 2 and has a freakish 20% pressure rate, he holds up to doubles
- Derrick Harmon and TJ Sanders both are above 20% pass rush win rates which you don’t see often at DT
With the rebirth of the NFL run game, expect teams to grab two-gapping run-stopping DTs higher than past years and there are several good options:
- Kenneth Grant is only 21, handles doubles extremely well, and has a bit more pass rush upside
- Alfred Collins is going to be a consistent run defender in the league
- Tyleik Williams and Deone Walker are guys I’m a bit lower on but are really good day 2 options
The Eagles already have Jordan Davis but if other teams push some of these big-bodies up, it just means one of their pass rushing DTs or EDGEs drops closer to their pick.
The Eagles do NOT need to force an EDGE on day 1… day 2 may be way better value
I like the top end of this EDGE class but think there’s only a couple of guys that would go high in recent strong classes: Abdul Carter (16% pressure rate, 15% run stop rate) and James Pearce (22% pressure, 17% run stop) are the two.
The other projected day 1 EDGEs all are interesting but have concerns that raise R1 risk (and remember, EDGE has one of the higher 1st round bust rates):
- Mykel Williams and Nic Scourton have concerning college production numbers (both around 10% pressure rates) that haven’t generally translated to the NFL
- Jalon Walker is so impressive but rarely lined up as a pure EDGE – is he a LB or EDGE?
- Shemar Stewart is a physical freak but also lacks pass rush production
- Mike Green has the competition question
But on day 2, teams have great options with another 10-12 EDGEs projected. Some great options that stand out to me:
- Princely Umanmielen may land in R1 with his production numbers in the SEC
- Josaiah Stewart is way too overlooked (and one of my favorite guys in the entire class) because of his size but he has great film against future NFL OTs and also one of the few EDGEs that has shown he can drop into coverage
- Jack Sawyer is a high floor prospect that just consistently out-produces his on-paper traits
- JT Tuimoloau, while limited as a pass rusher, he’s probably more valuable with the re-birth of the NFL run game
- Donovan Ezeiruaku from just across the river in NJ, another guy that is probably going to out-perform his draft slot with both 14% pressure and run stop rates
- Jalen McLeod is a guy I have no idea why he isn’t on anybody’s radar, his height probably drops him but he makes more plays than anybody in this class (tackles on 7% of snaps) and, like Jalon Walker, can be moved around the defense
The type of EDGEs Fangio has wanted will be available on day 2 or later
I posted earlier on the EDGEs that Vic Fangio defenses have drafted and, while you have to be careful drawing too strong of a conclusion from 6 picks, there are four things that stood out:
- Most weren’t drafted high – All but one pick was near pick 100 or later
- Smaller, athletic EDGEs – The EDGEs tended smaller averaging 6’4″ and 247 pounds with sub-33″ arms, but all tested very well athletically
- Above average production – All but one had above average college pressure rates, even those taken late in the draft
- Ability to cover – Every one except the two 7th round picks had significant coverage snaps in college including Jalyx Hunt last draft
If you want to look for EDGEs that fit this profile this draft, look to Josaiah Stewart and Jalen McLeod (and Jalon Walker if he drops). Both Josaiah Stewart and Jalen McLeod are projected to be mid day 2 or later picks.
It’s a really bad year for the “draft Lane’s replacement” crowd
Lane has 2-3 years left likely, but every year that goes by, it makes more sense to take his replacement. But this is a really bad OL class, especially when you look for what the Eagles want in guys (athleticism, anchor, length).
So many prospects this year are likely interior guys due to length and movement limitations
Arm length matters – I posted recently that in the past 2 drafts, only 3 OTs are below a 34″ arm and also a 60th percentile (above average) player – Taliese Fuaga, Roger Rosengarten, and Darnell Wright. All good players, none you would say are franchise OTs yet.
Here are this year’s top 100 OT prospects – we obviously don’t have official measurements but at least 4 of the 14 have sub 34″ arms, another 5 just don’t have the lateral quickness the Eagles look for, and another 1-2 have concerning anchors on film (with flashbacks to Andre Dillard…)
| EDP | OT Prospect | Concerns |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Will Campbell | Length, movement |
| 9 | Kelvin Banks | Movement |
| 18 | Josh Simmons | |
| 26 | Aireontae Ersery | |
| 30 | Josh Conerly | Height, anchor |
| 32 | Cameron Williams | Movement |
| 35 | Jonah Savaiinaea | Movement |
| 39 | Wyatt Milum | Length |
| 49 | Armand Membou | Height |
| 55 | Emery Jones | Movement |
| 65 | Grey Zabel | Length |
| 66 | Marcus Mbow | Length |
| 95 | Charles Grant | Anchor |
| 98 | Anthony Belton | Movement |
If you really want a Lane replacement, there are probably 2-3 guys you should lock in on: Josh Simmons, Aireontae Ersery, and maybe Armand Membou (probably a guard due to height, but has the arm length and movement):
Let somebody else use their draft capital on a R1 TE
I’ll piss a lot of people off here…
The Penn State-Eagles fan connection is always strong but we need to let it go this year with the “trade up for Tyler Warren” movement. And this isn’t meant as hating on Warren or Colston Loveland, I like both, but most R1 TEs look like mistakes in retrospect.
- In 2021 ATL could have drafted R1 Ja’Marr Chase/Penei Sewell and R2 Freiermuth instead of R1 Kyle Pitts and R2 Richie Grant
- In 2019 DET went with TJ Hockenson over Brian Burns/Montez Sweat which were needs at a premium position
- In 2017 TB took OJ Howard over needs at EDGE, CB, and OT with guys like Tre’Davious White, Garrett Bolles, Ryan Ramczyk, and TJ Watt on the board
Of course there’s a bit of “hindsight is 20/20” here but most of these were also questioned at the time by those that know the positional value and hit rates on TEs. You are just much better served long-term taking a more expensive, harder to get, and higher hit rate position with premium picks.
And the bigger point is TE is one of the best position groups this year with guys like Harold Fannin (my favorite), Gunnar Helm (my pick for “best Eagles fit”), Mason Taylor, Oronde Gadsden and more on day 2.
If you need a CB, take one high
I’m greedy, I’d love another CB this year even after taking two last year. But the more I watched CBs, the lower I got on the class… there is talent and very good pros will come out of this class, but almost every guy has a “but”…
Top guys you feel (mostly) good about
The list of guys that profile as R1 CBs and don’t have some question mark is a small list this year:
- Will Johnson is probably the cleanest prospect – he has the fluid movements and is a much better man CB than most give him, but I worry about his durability – he’s had no major injuries but has missed a lot of time dinged up.
- Benjamin Morrison is my CB1 and if his hip clears, you take him very high – but the hip has to clear.
- Trey Amos is a guy I wouldn’t be surprised if he went CB2 as he really doesn’t have a knock – he’s a really good man CB with the athletic profile you need.
Top guys with a question
There are other top-ranked CBs but they all have risks:
- Jahdae Barron is a guy you love, has versatility in the secondary, but probably doesn’t have the long speed to play outside
- Azareye’h Thomas I really like, think he is a better CB with the play in front of him but another guy where long speed may be a question
- Shavon Revel I have here because everybody has him in R1… I don’t, he has physical traits but is 23, tore his ACL, and is a high variance prospect who gives up a TON of big plays
I worry about NFL traits on day 2
Last year I went back and looked at successful NFL corners (especially outside CBs) and it is incredibly rare to find any that are above a 4.45 40 and 1.55 10-yard split. By incredibly rare, I mean almost none, limited to Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, and Jaylon Johnson among the top 25 CBs.
We will obviously get numbers at the Combine but day 2 of the draft this year looks to be full of guys with questionable speed that has historically not translated well.
Day 2 guys expected to be 4.5 or higher and whose long speed concerns shows up on film:
- Maxwell Hairston (he may clear on speed, but it’s questionable)
- Zy Alexander
- Denzel Burke
- Jemari Harris
If you need a CB and you miss out in R1, what do you do?
- Some good nickel options with Cobee Bryant and Jacob Parrish
- Darien Porter has traits but will be 24 years old and is SO green with only has 41 career targets at CB after converting from WR
- Dorian Strong may be the one of the better options but he’s one of the most penalized CBs and doesn’t get his head turned consistently
It could be a really good year to trade down
There are few things worse than being hyped for the draft, waiting all night, and then the Eagles trade out of the 1st round like they did in 2018. But this could be a good year to do that again for a few reasons:
The value in this draft, especially for what the Eagles will likely be looking for, is day 2 depth
DT and EDGE are very good on day 2, TE and SAF make more sense from a positional value perspective on day 2, and if they want a development OL, the value is much better later in the draft – right now, I have two offensive linemen that would have gone in the 1st the past couple of years.
There could be QB-needy teams looking to move back into the 1st round
You never know what will happen with QBs as teams always overdraft them. But with only two R1-graded QBs and the best free agent option being Sam Darnold, a lot of teams are going to be left standing when the music stops.
Here are the teams that definitely need a QB this off-season:
| Team | R1 Pick | R2 Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | 1 | 35 |
| Cleveland Browns | 2 | 33 |
| New York Giants | 3 | 34 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6 | 37 |
| New York Jets | 7 | 42 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 21 | 52 |
Somebody will sign Darnold, I think (or hope) the Steelers re-sign Fields, and Russ Wilson goes somewhere but at 36 he also isn’t going to stop a team from drafting a guy.
If Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders really are the two QBs worthy of a top pick, they likely go in the top 2 or 3 picks, leaving two teams without a good free agent or top draft option.
It will get interesting as the 2nd round comes around again if one of them likes Jalen Milroe or Kyle McCord or Quinn Ewers – jumping back into the 1st ahead of others and gaining the 5th year option makes a ton of sense after (correctly) taking BPA in the 1st.
I still think defensive line, particularly DT, is the most likely pick but with the Eagles picking late in the 1st, it is one of the least predictable draft years in a while.
Late 1st or early 2nd, positional value isn’t quite as strong and it opens up positions like TE and SAF, two upcoming needs that Howie has avoided high. And, if this is a weaker class which it seems to be, don’t be surprised (or angry) if Howie trades down for more valuable future capital.
Go Birds. Two more wins.