First, a caveat on what follows. I don’t believe in solely looking at stats for players and is not what I am doing here. You have to watch the film. But college production does matter and it helps surface risk on prospects.
College pressure rate translates to the NFL
For pass rushers, generating pressure in college is a really good predictor of NFL success.
EDGEs that make it to the pros have an average college pressure rate just over 14% with the truly elite guys – the Bosas, the Watts, Maxx Crosby, Aidan Hutchinson, and Micah Parsons – generating pressure nearly every one-in-five pass rushes.
While generating pressures in college alone doesn’t guarantee NFL success, it’ is a huge ‘s hard to ignore the relation. Below shows EDGEs drafted since 2017 with their college pressure rates (x-axis) and their NFL grade (y-axis).
Prospects with better college production have tended to be better pros. There are, of course, exceptions but most have a reason. The Eagles own Josh Sweat had injury concerns and was a better run defended in college. Carl Granderson took 3-4 years to hit his potential in the NFL. Odafe Oweh had an injury-shortened final season at PSU but a 15% pressure rate the prior.
College production raises NFL hit rates
Unsurprisingly, elite college pass rushers go early in the draft and teams do well to draft them. Below are hit and miss rates for EDGEs drafted since 2017 by college pressure rate:
| College Pressure Rate | Draft Hit Rate | Draft Bust Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 20% or above (7% of drafted players) | 64% | 18% |
| 17-20% (14% of drafted players) | 39% | 30% |
| 14-17% (29% of drafted players) | 28% | 46% |
| Under 14% (50% of drafted players) | 14% | 44% |
EDGE has the 3rd lowest hit rate in the draft behind cornerbacks and wide receivers. But drafting these elite college pass rushers is as close to a sure thing as you can get in the draft.
College pass rushers above a 17% pressure rate are twice as likely to be good pros than not. But there aren’t many of these, just 3-6 each year in the draft.
…but “buyer beware” on low college production rates
But for those EDGEs with a 14% pressure rate or lower, only 1 in 8 turn out to be good pros with almost half being busts. And these aren’t day 3 picks.
With teams desperate for pass rushers due to how few actually hit free agency, even if you are willing to pay the $20M+ per year, EDGEs that didn’t produce in college get drafted high every year – every year, drafts average just over 1 in the 1st round and 3 on day 2. These are picks like Travon Walker (pick 1), K’Lavon Chaisson (pick 20), Myles Murphy (pick 28), Isaiah Foskey (pick 41), and Joseph Ossai (pick 69).
Some do turn out. Most don’t.
A look at the 2025 EDGE draft class
Every year as draft big boards are created and draft profiles are written, prospects are definitively labeled. Players are definitely a 1st round or top 10 pick… they comp to <insert pro bowler name>… and they are the answer to an immediate need as a starter leaves in free agency.
But all prospects, even the surest guys, have risk and a range of outcomes. And prospects should be viewed and talked about that way. That’s what I’m trying to do here – college production is an important ingredient not only to the evaluation, but to the risk discussion.
Below are where the top-100 projected EDGEs rank on college pressure rates (while we are talking about pressure, I’ve also included run stop rates as we have seen how a poor run defender at EDGE is an incredible liability).
| Consensus Pick # | Player | School | Pressure Rate | Run Stop Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Abdul Carter | PSU | 15.8% | 15.0% |
| 11 | James Pearce Jr | Tennessee | 22.3% | 17.0% |
| 14 | Nic Scourton | Texas A&M | 11.1% | 9.9% |
| 15 | Mykel Williams | UGA | 10.2% | 14.9% |
| 17 | Jalon Walker | UGA | 14.9% | 12.8% |
| 34 | JT Tuimoloau | Ohio St | 13.5% | 12.1% |
| 35 | Shemar Stewart | Texas A&M | 10.5% | 7.4% |
| 36 | Princely Umanmielen | Ole Miss | 17.5% | 17.6% |
| 38 | Landon Jackson | Arkansas | 10.7% | 11.9% |
| 47 | Jack Sawyer | Ohio St | 17.1% | 9.7% |
| 49 | LT Overton | Alabama | 14.2% | 9.8% |
| 54 | Mike Green | Marshall | 18.5% | 15.0% |
| 55 | Kyle Kennard | South Carolina | 13.0% | 8.3% |
| 59 | Donovan Ezeiruaku | Boston College | 12.4% | 12.6% |
| 66 | Bradyn Swinson | LSU | 17.4% | 11.0% |
| 80 | Ashton Gillotte | Louisville | 15.9% | 7.7% |
| 85 | Josaiah Stewart | Michigan | 16.3% | 17.0% |
| 91 | Patrick Payton | Florida St | 8.5% | 8.1% |
| 100 | Jared Ivey | Ole Miss | 11.3% | 8.2% |
Drafts average 5 above average or better pro EDGEs each year with the best years a few higher than that. The 2010 draft had 8 top EDGEs, including our own Brandon Graham. 2011 and 2015 had 7 headlined by Cam Jordan, Von Miller, Danielle Hunter, and Za’Darius Smith. But then 2020 only had 2, Chase Young and Alex Highsmith.
You don’t just draft the best producing college players – there are guys with high pressure rates above that I am lower on for various reasons like Princely Umanmielen and JT Tuimoloau. And guys with lower rates that I like, like Shemar Stewart.
Remember, as sure as everybody may be, of the 19 projected EDGEs in the top 100 EDGEs with five projected 1st rounders and nine 2nd rounders, it’s highly probable that a quarter of them, at best, turn out to be above average pros. And history shows us that those with lower college production just have higher risk.
EDGE remains the most popular (and always a favorite target for Howie) 1st round pick for the Eagles this year as Josh Sweat may leave in free agency, BG likely retires, Bryce Huff underperforms.
I’m going through EDGEs as more and more film becomes available and have some early favorites:
- Abdul Carter – the most complete EDGE rusher, but he will be long gone by the time the Eagles pick
- James Pearce – may be the best pass-rusher in this class but again, likely will be gone by their pick.
- Josaiah Stewart – reminds me of Nick Herbig, knocked for his size but it doesn’t show up on film and I don’t see him going anywhere near as late as 85. My only question is his bend.
- Shemar Stewart – a projection and higher variance pick and one I struggled with and re-watched several times, his movement at his size is special. A pick I could regret as I love giant pass rushers, he has a play or two every game that show his strength and length that just look silly.
If your favorite name is missing above, I either don’t have enough film (Mike Green) or I’m not as high on them as others (Mykel Williams, Nic Scourton, Princely Umanmielen).
I’m not as high on this EDGE class as most are. I think history will show it to be an average class and down from recent years. And for that reason, while EDGE is a need and the most popular pick for the Eagles, don’t be surprised if the best value when they are picking is at interior defensive line or (yes, another) corner or safety.
OMG! Greg is back!!!
Haha yes, at least some for the draft my friend. Hope all is well!
Another question: How did you determine that EDGEs who succeed in the NFL have an average college pressure rate of 14%? What was your thinking that led to this benchmark?
14% (I think 14.5% if I remember correctly) is the average college pressure rate for drafted EDGEs, not necessarily the average for successful pros. As you can see the variance is wide and statistically, it isn’t rigorous on the correlation, but there is clearly a “higher college production is better, lower has risk”. I don’t look at a pressure rate alone to make a decision, you have to watch and sometimes lower pressure rates are explained with doubles and higher are helped by getting pressure on a QB that held the ball too long or being unblocked (those both count as pressures). But a low pressure rate is absolutely a red flag.