I’ve talked about this several times in the past – consensus mock drafts for the Eagles are wrong so often because we don’t think like Howie. While there’s no cheat code to predicting Howie’s draft picks, he approaches the draft with the following:
- Positional value matters which means invest in positions that are expensive to get elsewhere
- Invest ahead of needs that are 1-2 years out – immediate needs are filled through trades and free agency
- Leave yourself in a position where you don’t HAVE to draft a specific position or player
So when we mock non-premium positions like Bijan Robinson in 2023 or Devin Lloyd in 2022 or yell for Kyle Hamilton over Jordan Davis, we’re missing Howie’s thinking, like it or not.
Looking back at past drafts
2017 – Mocks go after RBs, Howie takes a pass rusher
As the Eagles end 2016 with a mess at RB, releasing Ryan Mathews and left with Sproles and Wendell Smallwood, the top mocked picks for the Eagles were RBs Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey.
They instead take Derek Barnett and don’t figure out RB until after the draft with LeGarrette Blount signing in May and Jay Ajayi joining via an in-season trade.
Pass rusher made a ton of sense – they had lost starting Connor Barwin after the 2016 season and their projected 2017 starters were only signed through the 2017 season (Vinny Curry on the final year of his deal and newly signed Chris Long on a 1-year).
The Eagles are known to have had their eyes on CB Marshon Lattimore who went 3 picks ahead of them and CB also made a ton of sense – an unsettled position after losing both 2016 starters, they double-up on day 2 with Sydney Brown and Rasul Douglas.
2018 – Mocks again go after RBs, Howie builds back draft capital
The Eagles makeshift 2017 RB room is unsettled again as they lose LeGarrette Blount in free agency and Jay Ajayi is only signed through the 2018 season. We again look at running backs with Derrius Guice and Sony Michel being the most frequently mocked players.
The Eagles decide to trade out of the 1st round to regain draft capital they depleted in the trade-up for Carson Wentz.
2019 – Again a RB and now CBs show up in the mocks, Howie goes trenches
For the 3rd year in a row, the top mocked player is a RB with Josh Jacobs leading the way as Jay Ajayi tore his ACL during the 2018 season and the running back situation is again unsettled. Also showing up high in mocks are CBs DeAndre Baker and Byron Murphy.
But Howie goes trenches, trading up for Andre Dillard as we enter the perpetual “how much longer is Jason Peters going to play?”
Howie does finally go RB with Miles Sanders in the 2nd, using the pick from the 2018 trade down. He also takes WR JJAW as Agholor is expected to depart the following year and both 29-year old Alshon Jeffery and 33-year old DeSean Jackson miss significant time in 2018 and are nearing the end.
2020 – The year we all get it right and Howie gets it wrong
This is the one year where Howie put himself in a corner with absolutely needing to draft a position after missing on JJAW and hanging on too long to old guys DeSean and Alshon.
And it’s the year where fans wants and Howie’s needs aligned – the top three mocked players run the table with WRs Justin Jefferson, Henry Ruggs, and Tee Higgins. Howie famously whiffed on this pick with Jalen Reagor in a disastrous draft with the lone bright spot of bringing up Hurts.
2021 – A do-over draft and investing in the trenches
Mocks were all over the place, but generally targeting one of the top CBs Jaycee Horn or Patrick Surtain which was absolutely a current and emerging need. We also had a ton of interest in Kyle Pitts and one of the several good receivers coming out.
The interest in one of the CBs is allegedly feigned to hide Howie’s real target, DeVonta Smith. He needed to go back to the draft and get another WR after Reagor misses and wanting to see what they have with Hurts.
You see so much “if we would have taken Justin Jefferson we never would have taken DeVonta” and that’s probably true. And as much as I love DeVonta, it’s insane to think missing on Jefferson was a good thing.
On day 2, Howie goes OC and DT as they start preparing for a post-Kelce world and DT becomes an emerging need with Malik Jackson leaving and Fletch now 31 years old.
2022 – The trenches draft
Fan mocks miss badly with LBs Devin Lloyd and Nakobe Dean being the most popular picks. And LB was a need but Howie isn’t going to spend a high pick on LB where a top 5 free agent costs $5M a year over DT which costs $15M a year.
Jordan Davis is one of the least surprising picks in recent history as Howie did a poor job hiding interest in him. Looking ahead, DT was the biggest need for two reasons: the Eagles were planning to move on from Hargrave and Fletch was nearing the end and the scheme switch with Gannon’s arrival demanded a two-gapping DT.
On day 2, Howie again goes OC which surprised many after taking Landon Dickerson the year before, but OL still needed additional investment with Brooks done and Seumalo likely leaving the next year.
2023 – The trenches draft, the sequel
With two 1st round picks, mocks are dominated by CBs and RBs with CBs Devon Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez and RBs Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs far and away being the top mocked players.
But again, trenches dominate the draft which made all the sense in the world when you look ahead and the entire DL was at risk – Hargrave was not re-signed, Barnett was going to be let go the following year, and both Fletch and BG were nearing retirement.
Howie doubles up as Jalen Carter unexpectedly falls to their first pick and Nolan Smith, who they may have taken with their first pick, falls to their second pick.
2024 – Finally ending the “Howie won’t draft CBs in the 1st” trope
I wrote before the draft last year that the “Howie won’t draft a CB in the 1st round” was wrong – he clearly valued the position and would have taken Marshon Lattimore in 2017, but the CB drafts didn’t play out for him.
Last year cornerback was screaming as the area that needed investment if you looked out 1-2 years. And fans saw it too, getting it right by mocking CBs heavily to the Eagles.
EDGE was also a need but they signed Bryce Huff in free agency and then used a 3rd rounder on Jalyx Hunt. If CBs hadn’t dropped last year, Howie may have gone EDGE as he showed interest in Chop Robinson and Latu.
Ranking the 2025 draft priorities
As good of shape that the roster is in right now, there are several positions that pop up as upcoming needs when you look out 1-2 years. These are the key players that will either leave (and need to be replaced) or be extended (making that position more expensive):
If you had to bet, bet on DL in the 1st
1a. Defensive Tackle
Almost everybody is expecting EDGE which makes sense (except for a few of the “draft Lane” replacement holdouts – more on that in a minute). But you have to look at several things:
- Yes the Eagles are losing Josh Sweat and questions remain on Bryce Huff, but DT is actually closer to needing investment – they could lose 2-3 DTs over the next few years, including Milt this off-season
- There’s no “good news” if they somehow keep these DTs because it means they did it at around $22-24M a year (the going price for Milt and Davis level DTs)
- You just need more DTs than EDGEs – the Eagles usually roster an extra DT and there are more snaps at DT
DT looks to be a really strong class this year and will likely be better value late in the 1st with the top of the EDGE class already gone (and EDGE looks like its value this year is its depth, not top-end talent).
More on the future cap situation here “A look ahead at the Eagles cap, looming decisions, and what it could mean for the draft“
1b. EDGE
Despite picks each of the last two years, right now they are losing guys as fast as they are adding them with Sweat no doubt leaving this year, BG probably retiring, and Bryce Huff only signed through 2026 (he could be moved on from after 2025 and how long he is here depends on his play, but given he’s only the 17th highest paid EDGE, expect him to be here).
Count on an EDGE int he draft, I just think the value is going to be much better on day 2 this year unless the Eagles want to move up.
It’s not as crazy as it sounds…
2. Cornerback
Would Howie take a CB over a DL they loved? No, not this year. But picking late in the 1st, a CB could be the best player available if DL gets drafted heavily. And unless you are convinced Ringo or Ricks are a starter, the Eagles still very much need another outside CB with Slay likely gone and Rodgers possibly pricing out of Philly in free agency.
The board would have to fall just right (or wrong)
3. Offensive Tackle
The Eagles will know Lane’s timing way better than we will, but if he is leaning towards being done in 2 years, while still not ideal to draft this early it now puts OT in play more than last year. The issue is this OT class is undeniably bad with most of the R1 tackles being guard prospects and few having the length and movement the Eagles will want. There are two that are R1 OTs in my opinion (Kelvin Banks and Josh Simmons) and both will likely go early.
If DL is taken early, the couple of R1 CBs are gone, and somehow Josh Simmons drops, it wouldn’t totally surprise me to see Howie take him and let him develop, especially since the Eagles R1 pick this year will be low.
Day 2 and 3 draft priorities
Tight End
Goedert will most likely leave after next season, Calcaterra hits free agency but chances are he can be brought back fairly cheaply. But I put this one as a higher chance just because of how good this TE class is – there should be several guys on day 2 that would be value.
Safety
Reed Blankenship hits free agency after next season and most overlook that he could get paid more than Philly is willing or able to pay him. And CJGJ is signed through 2026 but could be moved on from after next season. They have Sydney Brown but he has trouble staying on the field. It’s a need but it’s a lean safety class where there’s going to be a lot of competition for handful of top-100 guys.
Interior Offensive Line
They could use depth at OG but again, it’s really not a good OL class. And as much as Howie is known for “the trenches”, don’t confuse tackle with interior guys where positional value doesn’t warrant high picks – besides the fireman, he has not used a R1 pick on an interior guy and open market prices don’t justify it. I could see a Tate Ratledge or Miles Frazier-type pick mid-draft.
Running Back
This is a sleeper pick and it comes down to two things: do they re-sign Kenny Gainwell and does the quality of this RB class drop somebody in their lap they like? Saquon is only really committed to through next season and what if a guy like Devin Neal or Treyveon Henderson is available in R3 or later? It takes some load off Saquon next year and gives you a back for a couple of years once Saquon is likely done here.
Wide Receiver
The Eagles need a WR3 and as much as I would justify a top WR pick, it won’t happen. They just used a 3rd round pick in a trade for Jahan Dotson and two day 3 picks on Johnny Wilson and Ainias Smith – Howie likely continues to take value shots at WR for the next year or two.