Last year I did a full off-season mock, taking a look at the Eagles salary cap situation, upcoming roster decisions, and what they likely would do in free agency and the draft and it was one of the most enjoyable things I have written. So this year, even though I’ve backed away from writing, I wanted to take another look here.
Salary cap outlook 2025-27
While the Eagles look to have decent free cap space, they are 19th in the league next year and then drop to the bottom of the league by 2027.
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected free cap space | $30.3M | $73.1M | $92.3M |
| # players under contract | 46 | 35 | 27 |
| League rank | 19th | 27th | 32nd |
Includes: this offseason BG retires, Sweat and Becton leave, and Braberry is released. Also, Slay is released (which is something I’m not sure happens and wonder if they give him a new 1-year deal). In 2026 Goedert leaves and in 2027 Lane retires.
They 2026-27 numbers may sound like a lot, but the Eagles are near the bottom of the league and you have to account for a full 51-man roster for cap purposes which will eat into this.
None of this should be surprising as Howie’s cap management is well known – sign his guys early, push a lot of the contract cost into the future, and lead the league in both future committed dollars and dead cap.
Roster construction: the good…
But they feel great about the roster and they should – it’s constructed really well right now:
- Young, cheap guys at key positions: They have the 5th youngest roster in the league with youth at key spots like Quinyon, DeJean, Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Milton Williams, Nolan Smith, Cam Jurgens, and Nakobe
- Long-term pieces signed below market: Hurts, DeVonta, Mailata are all massive deals at the most expensive positions
- Expensive guys that are producing: AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, Slay, CJGJ, Saquon have big deals but are all still very good
…the (very little) bad…
The only way Howie gets into trouble with his cap approach is with bad deals, and even then, he would need multiple bad deals at the same time to create enough of a salary cap hole.
Right now, it’s hard to pick out many bad deals.
- James Bradberry‘s was absolutely a bad deal but damage is limited to the 2024 season – with a post 6/1 designation this off-season, it’s a $3M dead cap hit and actually frees up $4.7M of 2025 cap space.
- Many will list Bryce Huff‘s deal as a mistake but it isn’t as bad from a cap perspective – Philly can move on from it after next season and he’s only the 17th highest paid EDGE right now, right with Harold Landry (a fair comp) and $7M/year under Montez Sweat’s recent deal (Huff is better)
Every team signs bad deals and Howie isn’t immune here but as long as players are contributing and any bad deals are limited, Howie’s aggressiveness pushing cap out helps the roster.
… and a looming “issue”
Looming “reality” is probably a better way to put it than “issue”.
There’s no “bad” to having a young, cost-controlled roster where you have your QB, multiple offensive weapons, and talent across the defense. But one thing to look at is how many position groups and players the Eagles are projected to be near the top of the league in spending on.
Below shows where the Eagles rank in AAV committed by position group since 2019. Couple of things:
- They’ve (unsurprisingly) always spent on OL
- DL was also heavily spent on until just last year given recent draft investments
- QB, RB, WR, and the secondary are also now high cost areas (but CB will come down)
The 2025-27 numbers will obviously change, but Philly has more committed future dollars than any other team. And when the names committed to are Hurts, Mailata, DeVonta, AJ, Landon, and Lane, you can see how the story won’t change much – they may (will) restructure, but that doesn’t reduce the investment.
Teams can’t spend everywhere and there will be some difficult decisions that go along with these big investments. Every time Howie has spent in many areas, difficult decisions followed:
- In 2022, Philly added Haason Reddick and AJ Brown and were now spending high at four positions groups (WR, OL, DL, and CB/SAF) and had to let TJ Edwards and Miles Sanders walk
- In 2023, when the Eagles extended Hurts and now had money committed to QB, WR, OL, and CB/SAF they let Javon Hargrave walk, dropping their DL spend from 1st in the league to 12th
- And of course last year with money committed to QB, WR, OL, and now RB with the Saquon signing, the Eagles got rid of Reddick, dropping their DL spend from 12th in the league to 29th
The fanbase generally loses their collective mind when Howie avoids the big free agents and guys like Reddick and Hargrave are let go, but it’s just a reality of roster spending.
Sweat will leave this year, but even with that move, the DL is going to get expensive meaning something will need to break again.
Planning ahead for key DL extensions
One thing I hate more than almost anything is the “cap isn’t real” trope. You can push money out, but the cap is very, very real and Howie is probably the best in the league at planning the cap out several years in advance.
On the DL, Milton Williams hits this off-season, Jordan Davis in 2026, and both Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith in 2027 (including their 5th year options).
What Howie’s extensions generally look like
If you look at Howie’s contract extensions, it’s interesting to look at where Howie has the cap hit land. The last two rookie extensions were DeVonta Smtih (including a 5th year option) and Landon Dickerson and the cap hits were spread out almost exactly the same:
| Player | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dickerson 4yr / $84M | $6.5M | $10.2M | $14.0M | $18.0M | $35.0M (void) |
| DeVonta 4 yr / $91M(includes 5th yr option) | $7.5M | $10.7M | $14.8M | $20.0M | $35.8M (void) |
| % of cap hit | 8% | 12% | 16-17% | 21-22% | 39-42% |
We know EDGE is expensive but it probably shocks many to recognize that DT prices have caught up to EDGE. Here are the average top-10 contracts for DT and EDGE over the past 5 years:
| 2020 | 2024 | % growth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE | $17.6M | $22.2M | +26% |
| DT | $13.1M | $22.1M | +69% |
Let’s look at what these DL extensions could cost and look like from a cap perspective using Howie’s general contract structure as a guide.
| Proj Extension | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Williams | 3yr / $65M | $5.2M | $7.8M | $11.1M | $14.3M (dead cap) | |
| Jordan Davis | 3yr / $60M | $16.0M (5th yr option) | $4.8M | $7.2M | $10.2M | |
| Jalen Carter | 3yr / $110M | $11.0M (5th yr option) | $16.6M | $23.5M | ||
| Nolan Smith | 3yr / $85M | $8.2M (5th yr option) | $12.4M | $17.5M | ||
| $8.2M | $23.8M | $35.1M | $50.4M | $51.2M |
You can see how 2027-28 start to become an issue if you try to sign everybody as Jalen’s new deal overlaps with Milt’s and Davis’ extensions.
Signing everybody on the DL adds around $35M in 2027 and around $50M in 2027-28. Above, the Eagles are projected to have $73M free in 2026 and $92M in 2027 but before you get too excited, they still need to account for 16 added players in 2026 and 24 in 2027 to get to the 51 top players that count towards the cap.
So the Eagles have two options:
- Sign all their guys, love their current core, and fill in the rest of the roster with cheaper guys
- Make a tough decision or two and start investing for the cap
Who gets extended / re-signed?
No-brainers: Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith
Even though Jalen Carter will set the market at DT, there’s no way Howie doesn’t extend him in 2026 before he hits the last year of his rookie deal (if you think my $37M AAV is crazy, Chris Jones is 30 years old and just signed at almost $32M a year). Nolan Smith will be extended early as well.
Where it gets interesting: Milton Williams, Jordan Davis
Before the Eagles get to Carter and Nolan, they are going to have to make decisions on both Milt and Jordan Davis. It sounds crazy to question either, but in Milt’s case it’s very unlike Howie to not extend his guys before the end of the deal. And for Davis, as important as he is to this scheme, you have to ask if you can replace that skillset cheaper.
Milt is probably going need to be limited to a 2-year commitment which is below market for DTs, as they have all been 4 years recently. And Milt may take a 2-year as it lets him get paid again soon.
I am definitely in the “Jordan Davis is under-appreciated” camp and am on record that I would try to get a deal with Milt done, but it is going to be hard to keep both.
Regardless, the Eagles probably need to invest again to bring the cost of the DL down.
What this could mean for the draft
Even with six DL picks over the past three drafts including three 1st rounders and a 3rd rounder, I’d bank on yet another pick this year. I just don’t know if it’s going to be DT or EDGE.
I’ve never seen as much consensus on which position the Eagles should take in the draft as I have this year – every mock draft aggregator, (almost) every fan, every media outlet is locked into EDGE given Sweat’s likely departure and Huff disappointing in his first year.
The top mocked players right now are any and every EDGE – Landon Jackson, J.T. Tuimoloau, Jalon Walker, James Pearce, Shemar Stewart, LT Overton, Mykel Williams all lead mocks – along with TE Tyler Warren, because it’s an annual tradition to mock a non-premium position that Howie will not draft.
And I wouldn’t be surprised or upset if it was EDGE. Pass rusher is always a good pick – it’s a position that is really, really hard to get anywhere but the draft. But DT makes a lot more sense than most fans give it right now:
- DT is projected to be one of the strongest position groups this draft
- DT could be the best value when they pick late in the 1st with 5-6 EDGEs projected to be taken vs. only 2-3 DTs
- Howie drafts 1-2 years out, not for immediate needs which elevates DT every bit as high as EDGE
The board could look like this when the Eagles are on the clock – who do you take?
| EDGE | DT | |
|---|---|---|
| Off the board | Abdul Carter James Pearce Nic Scourton Jalon Walker Mykel Williams Shemar Stewart | Mason Graham Kenneth Grant |
| Best available | Landon Jackson Mike Green J.T. Tuimoloau | Walter Nolen Derrick Harmon Deone Walker |
My next post will be my 1st round targets which I have been building out – I’ll let you know who I am targeting there.