Why the “Howie Doesn’t Draft CBs in the 1st Round” View Could be Wrong

We all know the accepted draft truths on Howie:

• He doesn’t draft running backs, linebackers, or safeties high
• Just bet on “the trenches!”
• And Howie has never drafted a 1st round corner

No, he never has. But just because he hasn’t doesn’t mean he won’t. Just like he dispelled “the Eagles don’t value running backs” by signing Saquon Barkley, I think this too will fall.

There are positions that Howie hasn’t drafted in the 1st because he generally doesn’t value them that high. CB isn’t one of them.

Howie (rightly) doesn’t value RBs, LBs, or SAFs high because they are all comparatively easy and cheap to get in free agency or later in the draft. But the difference with CB is he absolutely values the position.

Just look at what they have spent on CBs. In 2020 they traded for Darius Slay and immediately made him the 4th highest paid CB in the league. The past 3 years, the Eagles have been in the top-10 in the league, including 4th most last season, in amount of cap spent on CBs.

And, we all mock interior OL to them in the 1st because “the trenches”, but Howie has only taken one guard in the 1st (the fireman in 2011) and that wasn’t even Howie’s draft, that was Reid’s. Guards and centers he drafts heavily on day 2.

Sometimes I think I might be president of the “Draft a Corner” movement as I’ve wanted Howie to invest in a top CB the past three drafts.

But it’s hard to argue with Howie’s picks, especially when you look at which CBs were available at their picks.

Here are the Eagles picks since Howie took back control in 2016 along with the best available CBs based on consensus pre-draft ranking (I’m not cherry-picking surprise later round guys like Tariq Woolen or Jaylon Johnson that everybody passed on in the 1st). The numbers are the player value percentile (higher number is better):

Ignore 2016 as they were all-in on a QB that year, but look at the consensus “best available” CBs available these years. Who would you actually want at CB?

In 2019, as big of a miss as Andre Dillard turned out to be, pre-draft #27 ranked prospect Deandre Baker was worse. He started 17 games over 3 years, allowing a career 128 passer-rating, and is out of the league.

In 2020, the Eagles were never looking at CB but just for kicks, the best available corners were two 20th percentile guys in Igbinoghene and Gladney. Again, amazingly worse than even the Eagles bad pick or Reagor.

2021 was the same – Newsome would have been a decent pick, but nowhere near DeVonta.

There are a few years you could question, though, specifically 2017, 2022, and 2023.

Let’s look at them:

2017: The year they may have missed out on their corner

I asked TheHonestNFL on the Eagle’s willingness to take a CB and he said there have been several Howie would have drafted, including Marshon Lattimore in 2017. Lattimore went three picks ahead of the Eagles pick, who then took Derek Barnett.

Looking back it’s easy to say they could have then taken Marlon Humphrey who went at 16 and turned out to be a much better pro (90th percentile player), but pre-draft consensus had Barnett as a higher ranked player. Add in that the Eagles were expecting to lose pass rushers Chris Long, Vinny Curry, and Connor Barwin and going EDGE made sense.

2022: Seeking a specific piece, this is the year to possibly criticize

After bringing in a Fangio-style defense, I think everybody knew the Eagles were going to take their run-stuffing, two-gapping NT in the 1st. And on the board for the Chiefs – the top team in the league in draft value over expected since 2020 – was my pre-draft crush Trent McDuffie. I really liked the Davis pick, we all did, but I wanted McDuffie that year.

2023: Good CBs were available but Howie made the right picks

With two picks last year, the first one was a no-brainer as Jalen Carter miraculously fell to them. I loved Christian Gonzalez, but you take Carter there.

At their second pick at 30, the Eagles again had luck as Nolan Smith fell to them. The Eagles did visit heavily with CBs pre-draft, meeting with Emmanuel Forbes, Deonte Banks, Kelee Ringo, and Joey Porter Jr, and you could make a case for Porter who turned out to be one of the league’s better CBs. But, again, the Eagles pick made sense.

I wrote last year in “Why Our Mock Drafts Miss So Often – Howie’s History on Positional Value and Investing Ahead of Needs” that, like 2017, if you looked ahead a year, they knew they had upcoming needs at pass rusher:

Now we are counting on Nolan.

I don’t put a ton of stock in rumors immediately ahead of the draft, but Philly is rumored to be poking around for Seattle’s pick at 16. If this is true, to me it means the Eagles could be moving up for CB or OL.

Here are the teams from 17 to 21 and what they are likely to take – both OL and CB have a chance at runs here:

Pick	Team	Likely Positions
17		CB, WR
18		OT, DT
19		EDGE, CB
20		WR, OL, CB
21		IOL, EDGE, CB

I have said throughout the draft season that I thought pass rusher was the Eagles most likely pick but two things:

They signed Bryce Huff to a multi-year deal and still could extend Sweat. With Nolan set to play more, they have a good rotation here.

And I actually think EDGE is better value on day two. Dallas Turner and Jared Verse are projected to go in the top 12, which then brings you to:

• Laiatu Latu – I love him but will turn 24 this season and has medical concerns
• Chop Robinson – I personally don’t love him in the 1st round and not that high
• Darius Robinson – Interesting but somebody that isn’t a pure EDGE

On day two, you start getting guys like Chris Braswell, Marshawn Kneeland (who they have shown interest in), Adisa Isaac (again, have shown interest), Bralen Trice, and Jonah Elliss which are all better value in my opinion.

A CB the Eagles will love

If you follow me, you know I love Clemson’s Nate Wiggins and he will be there in this range. And the Eagles supposedly have shown a lot of interest in the uber-versatile Cooper DeJean.

But Terrion Arnold is going to be a guy that the Eagles love. And I could see him being their target if they do move up.

Besides being a top CB, he brings incredible intangibles and leadership that they always value. At the Combine, he spoke about his drive (and mentions current Eagle Eli Ricks):

I write it down every day. Eli Ricks, that’s my brother. But I mean, when I got benched and replaced by him, it motivated me. I write it down every day and I refuse to ever let that happen again.”

And while this is a deep CB class, it doesn’t have a lot of inside-outside versatility, which Terrion does:

When I’m on the field, I feel like I can play any position. Especially in the secondary, when I line up in the slot, I know I’m kinda like an outside linebacker. I have to feel the run, set edges, take on blocks, and I have to cover.

But we just re-signed Avonte and may be set at CB

Maybe the Eagles think they are set, but I don’t think so, and I don’t think they think it either. Especially at outside corner.

• Slay is locked but will be gone after this season just because of his cap hit
• JBJ should be gone this year and I think still likely will be as I don’t see him being one of the top 6 or 7 CBs
• Kelee will get his shot and showed enough, although I still have some worries that his change of direction limitations could be exposed
• Rodgers is an exciting add but on a one year deal and is still not re-instated
• Ricks and Jobe are not starters – you cannot find a good starter in the league with their athletic profiles

They have a ton of other guys, but they are all nickels or depth:

• Avonte was signed but I wonder if he is partly here as safety depth more than anything
• Tyler Hall was brought in, but he’s barely played
• And then you have Zech, Mario Goodrich, and Tiawan Mullen which I doubt any make the roster

There truthfully isn’t a guy above that would prevent you from drafting a great player you really liked.

And look at this past free agency – there wasn’t one CB you would want. Next year you have Surtain and Horn hitting free agency, but if history holds, they will either be extended (likely) or traded and never hit free agency.

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The Eagles still absolutely need at least one outside CB for 2025 and either get it in the draft, hope they get multiple of these young guys to hit, or have to re-sign Rodgers (assuming he is still good).

I may be kidding myself again, but in past years I wanted a CB but didn’t think it was likely. This year, I actually think CB is a highly likely pick. Terrion Arnold, Cooper DeJean, Quinyon Mitchell, or Nate Wiggins should all be serious considerations this year.

We shall see in a few weeks.