There’s been a lot of questioning of the Kenny Pickett trade on two fronts: first, the Justin Fields trade quickly followed at what many saw was a lower price (it wasn’t) and, second, the Eagles trading out of the 3rd round in their pick swap for Pickett.
I’m not here to debate Pickett vs. Fields, but wanted to dive into what exactly the Eagles gave up when they sent their 3rd rounder at pick 98 to the Steelers in return for pick 120 in the 4th.
What are the Eagles losing moving down 22 spots in the draft? Not as much as you may think.
We overvalue picks: A look at expected draft values
We all love our mocks, myself included, picking our favorite guys through all seven rounds. And now, everybody is worrying that Jeremiah Trotter Jr is now going to be gone, turning into Cedric Gray. Or instead of our future nickel Kris Abrams-Draine, we will be looking at Cam Hart.
But when you look at the history of players taken by pick location, we are overvaluing these picks.
Expected player value degrades much quicker than you may think
Of course, picking high in the draft is expected to get you a very good player. But what most don’t realize is how quickly expected value in the draft falls.
Below shows the median player value taken by pick location (orange line). Look at how quickly it drops.
By pick 46, the median value of a player drops below the 50th percentile, meaning by the middle of the 2nd round, teams are expected to get a below-average player.
Let me put player percentiles and values into context with some example Eagles players:
Elite and very good – franchise and guys impactful on the field:
- 90th+ percentile: Jalen Hurts, Lane Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Sheldon Brown, and Trent Cole
- 80th+ percentile: Landon Dickerson, Miles Sanders, Jordan Hicks, Brandon Graham, Zach Ertz
Above average – solid starters, the guys every team needs:
- 60th+ percentile: Todd Herremans, Jalen Mills, Nelson Agholor, Nate Allen, Brent Celek
League average – typically average starters or backups, role players:
- 40th to 60th percentile: Isaac Seumalo, Kenny Gainwell, Jordan Matthews, Vinny Curry, Nate Gerry, Quez Watkins
Below average – depth players at best, draft misses at worst:
- 20th to 40th percentile: Winston Justice, Jack Driscoll, Jalen Reagor, Matt Pryor, Kevin Kolb, Andre Dillard
- Below 20th percentile: Josh Huff, Marcus Smith, Davion Taylor, Donnel Pumphrey, Shareef Miller
When we all argue online about why certain positions should be taken early, remember the above – teams have 1-2 picks a year that have good expected values. On top of the financial replacement value, this is why it is so important to prioritize premium positions early in the draft.
What’s the “average” player expected at picks 98 and 120?
Looking at the drafts since 2000, here are average player values drafted at both picks 98 and 120:
| Averages | Pick 98 | Pick 120 |
|---|---|---|
| Percentile value | 27th | 20th |
| Games played | 63.1 | 65.8 |
| Years started | 2.5 | 1.7 |
Again, to put these value percentiles into context, 27th percentile players for the Eagles have been Brandon Boykin (played 4 seasons, starting 9 games) and LB Andy Studebaker (released by the Eagles in rookie camp, went on to be a backup starting 9 games over 8 seasons). These are the “average” expected players taken at pick 98.
At pick 120, the average player matches Wendell Smallwood (played 6 seasons, 3 in Philly, with 968 career rushing yards) and Clay Harbor (7 seasons, starting 38 games and totaling 1,170 career receiving yards).
Not a big difference in player value. And not exactly game-changing players.
History of Eagles draft picks at these locations
If you look at the Eagles selections close to picks 98 and 120, you see that impact pros have been very rare. And if anything, they have done as well or better around 120.
Eagles selections between 90-105:
Out of 7 picks since 2010, only Rasul Douglas has been a good pro, and most of his success was after leaving Philly. Kelee Ringo is in here and way too early to tell, hopefully he pops as well.
| Year | Pick | Player | Value Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 90 | DB Curtis Marsh | 2 |
| 2013 | 98 | QB Matt Barkley | 12 |
| 2017 | 99 | DB Rasul Douglas | 55 |
| 2014 | 101 | DB Jaylen Watkins | 16 |
| 2020 | 103 | LB Davion Taylor | 9 |
| 2023 | 105 | DB Kelee Ringo | TBD |
| 2010 | 105 | DB Trevard Lindley | 3 |
Eagles selections between 116-127:
The Eagles have taken more players around pick 120, but again, impact players are rare. Avonte Maddox is the only good player here (if you question is low value percentile, it’s because he’s missed 35% of his pro playing time with injuries). K’Von, like Rasul above, may be having a better career after leaving Philly and Mack Hollins had one good year in Las Vegas.
| Year | Pick | Player | Value Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 116 | LB Casey Matthews | 21 |
| 2017 | 118 | WR Mack Hollins | 32 |
| 2011 | 120 | K Alex Henery | 20 |
| 2010 | 121 | LB Keenan Clayton | 7 |
| 2010 | 122 | QB Mke Kafka | 0 |
| 2012 | 123 | DB Brandon Boykin | 26 |
| 2021 | 123 | DB Zech McPhearson | 13 |
| 2010 | 125 | TE Clay Harbor | 18 |
| 2018 | 125 | DB Avonte Maddox | 43 |
| 2020 | 127 | SAF K’Von Wallace | 35 |
The Pickett trade was a good one
The Eagles get a backup QB, which they needed, for $4.6M over the next two seasons and only gave up the potential value difference between these picks.
I wasn’t very high on Kenny coming out and thought the Steelers way over-drafted him when they needed OL like they needed air, with Tyler Linderbaum screaming to be picked. But if Kenny has to come in, he’s going to go from the 2nd worst OL in the league to one of the best and from one receiving weapon to three (and hopefully a fourth if the Eagles do what I want and draft another receiver…)
At $2.3M per year, Kenny is a much better use of cap space than paying Marcus Mariota $5M last year.