If you have followed me for any time, you know one of my controversial-to-many takes is that teams in need of a punter should draft them. Player hit rates are so low late in the draft that using the opportunity to take the best punter is almost always better value than EDGE number 25.
And now it’s time to see who the top punters in this class are and who should be taking one.
Looking back at last year
Who I thought needed a punter last year
While I will always stand by the value of drafting punters, there has to be a need. Last year there were a few obvious teams that were going to add a punter and had GMs with a history of drafting specialists.
- The Patriots topped the list as a lock to draft one and took Bryce Baringer, first off the board at pick 191.
- The Rams and Bengals became obvious teams that were going to upgrade as they had punter issues and took guys in succession at picks 216 and 220 in the draft.
I also had Arizona, Green Bay, Houston, Washington, and of course, Philly on my list of teams that had reason to be in the mix to take a punter.
- Arizona and Green Bay avoided the draft, the Cards signing Blake Gillikin from New Orleans and Green Bay signing UDFA Daniel Whelan.
- Houston and Washington both wrongly rolled with what they had, with Houston now making the special teams splash of the off-season, signing legend Tommy Townsend and Washington continuing to Washington.
- And the Eagles, who I perpetually fool myself thinking they would draft one, instead grabbed Braden Mann part-way into the season and finally solved their punting issue.
It’s likely going to be a down year as not many teams need a punter
The recent punter bull market has produced 10 starting punters over the past two drafts. Add in 2022 pick Matt Araiza who is getting his delayed pro shot in KC, and that could be 11.
For a position with a long average career length, it’s crazy to have a third of the league set from just two draft classes. But this success is most likely going to soften the 2024 market as there just aren’t many teams that scream “need a punter”.
Only twice since 2000 have no punters been drafted – 2011 and 2017. Despite a lack of glaring needs in the league, somebody will probably still be drafted given the value. But if there’s a year that’s a risk of none getting selected, 2024 could be it.
Here’s how I think about the teams that could take one:
Teams seeking a Super Bowl with a punter problem:
This was the Ravens and Bills in 2022 and Bengals last year. But there isn’t as definite of a list this year as the good and ascending teams all look set:
- The Ravens, 49ers, Lions, and Eagles have their punters
- Add in Dallas who has their punter as they seek their elusive wildcard win
- Houston, ending the season as probably the best team that needed a punter, made the biggest specialist move of the off-season, signing Tommy Townsend
There are two teams that could fit here though:
 Kansas City Chiefs |
| Punt rank: ? The Chiefs look set as they immediately signed Matt Araiza after Townsend left, but will they just hand over the starting job to a guy that hasn’t kicked in a couple of years? Andy Reid and Brett Veach have no history of drafting specialists and doubt they start now especially with only no 6th round pick this year. But in a year where punters drop, they could look to UDFA and get a bargain. |
 Cincinnati Bengals |
| Punt rank: 32nd They just drafted Brad Robbins who is an interesting case that I wrote about in last year’s punter mock draft. Before his injury, in college Robbins projected well with a 4.37 hangtime and 47.6 yard average but after his injury both dropped (4.21 and 41.0). He unfortunately hasn’t bounced back to pre-injury levels in the NFL, averaging a 4.24 hangtime and 44.3 average distance, the lowest he’s been since 2020. I’m a bit surprised they didn’t do something in the offseason, but here we are. They have two picks in both the 6th and 7th rounds, making the Bengals a team with ammunition to get a punter once again. |
Teams spending too much on a punter:
It’s great if you have a good punter and are spending on them. But there’s no reason to spend a lot when you don’t have a top-of-the-league punter. And there’s a repeat offender in this category:
 Washington Commanders |
| Punt rank: 24th For the second year in a row, the Commanders top this list. Tress Way is a bottom-10 punter with a $3.75M cap hit in 2024, 3rd highest in the league. They have two picks in the 5th round (139 and 152) and one in the 7th (222). New GM Adam Peters has some history drafting punters, taking Mitch Wishnowsky in 2019 while he was VP of Player Personnel for the 49ers. |
Teams that could or should upgrade:
 Chicago Bears |
| Punt rank: 31st GM Ryan Poles has drafted a punter, the issue is it was two years ago and isn’t working. Trenton Gill, remains one of the lowest graded punters in the league and had the second most shanks in the league. Punters often take a year to get going but this is back-to-back years on a guy that didn’t even profile as a draftable punter. The Bears should be the lock this year to take a punter, but there’s a “but”… they have no picks after pick 122. They should see themselves as an ascending team looking to upgrade here, but will have to acquire a later pick or look to the UDFA market. |
 New Orleans Saints |
| Punt rank: 28th I don’t see the Saints as likely, but I have them here for two reasons. First, they may like Lou Hedley, but the 30-year old rookie hasn’t been good. And second, the Saints have a ton of late draft capital with 7 picks from 150 on. GM Mickey Loomis has drafted a punter, but it was all the way back in 2009 when the Saints drafted Thomas Morstead. They should draft a punter. |
And now, the 2024 Punter Mock Draft
A shocker to start!
R6-188: Chicago Bears – Austin McNamara, Texas Tech
I won’t over-stress on the actual move, but the Bears, lacking any picks late in the draft, end up with a pick at 188 from an earlier trade with Houston.
Every year there’s a shock to consensus on the first punter off the board – 2023 was Bryce Baringer and 2022 was my top punter Jordan Stout. This year continues with the Bears taking Texas Tech’s Austin McNamara over Ray Guy Award winner Tory Taylor.
Every year I insanely chart every punt for the top punting prospects and McNamara is my top punter. Here’s why:
Age: McNamara just turned 23 years old, giving the Bears a potential long-term answer at punter. Many don’t know that Tory Taylor, as good as he is, will turn 27 during training camp.
Hangtime: McNamara has a pro-level hangtime at 4.25 seconds, best in this class. Since 2020, the top drafted punters have averaged almost 4.27 seconds of hangtime.
Short-field punting: I’ve written before on the value of punts and the most valuable ones are when you pin the opponent deep – punts pinned inside the 10 yardline are worth almost a full point more than touchbacks. And nobody has been better here than McNamara:
- 71% of his short-field punts were downed inside the 10 yard line (5 of 7) with another downed at the 12, double anybody else.
- Gained 80% of yards (how close you start the receiving team to their own goal line compared to where the punt was from) when punting from a short-field, best in this class.
I have to pause here as most won’t realize how insane the above is – in recent years, only short-field assassin Adam Korsak was better.
Open-field (long) punting: The Bears punt from short-fields at one of the lowest rates in the league, but McNamara provides incredible open-field punting value as well, including an uncanny ability to still pin opponents deep from distance.
- 47 yard average on open field punts
- Put 38% (18 of 48 punts) inside the 20 and an amazing 23% inside the 10, best in this class
Limiting returns: Returns aren’t solely on the punter, but they can do a lot to influence it, especially by forcing fair catches. And McNamara was the best in this class there:
- Only 20% of his punts were even attempted to be returned
- Forced fair catches on 49% of his punts – only Sterling Hofricther, Ben Griffiths, and Tommy Townsend have higher rates since 2020
- Allowed 88 total return yards this season, an 8.0 YPR average
Punting from your own end zone is never easy and averages are always down there, but watch McNamara send this ball to a different time zone.
R6-194: Cincinnati Bengals – Ryan Rehkow, BYU
The Saints pass on a punter at 190 and the Bengals use their first pick in the 6th to right last year’s miss. And they get the biggest leg in this class. Here’s why:
Big leg: The 6’4″ 235 pound Rehkow is big with a big leg. Nobody has more long punts than he does this year, with half of his open-field punts (31 of 62) going over 50 yards and 9 over 60.
Pinning deep: Rehkow’s big leg puts him behind only McNamara in this class with 40% of punts inside the 20 yardline and 18% inside the 10.
Hangtime: Rehkow, like McNamara, has a pro-ready hangtime, averaging 4.15 seconds. He’s been at least 4.12 seconds all four years of his college career, spanning 176 career punts.
Two concerns for me though that keep him from being drafted first:
Elevation: Kicking for BYU at 4,649 feet of elevation helps as balls travel further. He had almost exactly the same number of punts at elevation (33) vs. not (35) and his splits show he benefited. At elevation he averaged 3.6 yards further (7% better) and 0.17 added seconds of hangtime (4% better) on open field punts. Ryan Stonehouse also kicked at elevation in college and overcame it, but it is something to note.
Returns: Rehkow had some bad luck and bad coverage that may artificially push his return numbers up – his 12.7 yards per return is worst in this class and he had four punts returned over 20 yards including 33, 74, and 88 yards. But he has allowed 40% of his punts to be returned and only forced a fair catch on 25%, both worst in this class. It’s an area to get better at.
UDFA: Kansas City Chiefs – Tory Taylor, Iowa
The Chiefs just signed Matt Araiza but they aren’t going to just hand over punting duties to a guy that hasn’t kicked in a few years. And they don’t look far, snatching up Iowa punter Tory Taylor from just five hours up the highway.
You ask “How do you have Ray Guy Award winner Tory Taylor not getting drafted?” Look at the recent Ray Guy winners, the award is more a kiss-of-death than a predictor of NFL success: the last four winners are Adam Korsak, Araiza, Pressley Harvin, and Max Duffy – three never punted in the league and the other just lost his starting job. You have to go back to 2018 when Eagle Braden Mann won it to find any pro success.
Here’s why Taylor could surprisingly fall:
Age: Taylor turns 27 years old in July. Since 2000, 49 punters have been drafted and just one was over 24 years old – 27-year old Mitch Wishnowsky in 2020. Punter is a position teams hope to get longevity out of and drafting a 27-year old shortens their careers quite a bit.
Hangtime: And while he is so good, one issue is he doesn’t have a great hangtime, averaging just 4.0 seconds. The top pros over the past 5 drafts have averaged a 4.27 second hangtime to go with a 46 yard average. Only Matt Araiza, Pressley Harvin, and Bryce Baringer have been drafted with a 4.0 second or lower average hangtime.
But there’s still a lot to like with Taylor and it’s an upside signing for the Chiefs:
Short-field punting: Nobody has better directional placement than Taylor. 43% of his short-field punts were pinned inside the 20 and 13% inside the 10, include a class-best 6 punts inside the 5 yardline.
If you want to learn more about punting, do me a favor and check out my friend Isaac Parks’ channel who I’ve learned a ton about punting from. Here’s his video on the complexities of Tory Taylor which is an amazing video on the art of punting:
I chart every punt of the top guys but when you watch Isaac’s breakdown of Taylor, it makes me feel like he’s painting the Sistine Chapel ceiling and I’m eating crayons in the corner. This is 23 minutes worth of punting analysis, techniques, placement, his methodology, and the complexity and variability of Tory Taylor.
UDFA: Washington Commanders – Jack Browning, San Diego State
The Commanders most likely stick with Tress Way, but I will have them bringing in competition because they really should. SDSU’s Browning took over for Matt Araiza and made a name for himself:
Hangtime: There are only 3 punters with NFL-ready hangtimes in this class and with McNamara and Rehkow, Browning is the third with a 4.12 average.
Limiting Returns: Browning has given up little, averaging 4.4 yards per return with only 57 total return yards allowed, best in this class. Only 24% of his punts attempted returns, second behind only McNamara.
Kicking: Browning is the one guy in this class that also kicks, with 99 career kickoffs and 53 field goal attempts. He has one of the better average starting field positions on kick offs at the 24.6 yardline, which would have been 5th best in the NFL. His field goal accuracy is a question from distance, only at 58% from 40 or more.
And that’s it. Two drafted punters and another couple signed in the UDFA period.
If you want to see more on these guys and a couple of others, Isaac has his great video on draftable punters here. We differ on the top guy which may be foolishness on my part, but I’m sticking with McNamara.