This is the third post in what is really my view on positional value, free agency, and the draft with an Eagles 2024 mock draft mixed in. So far, I’ve taken the two most difficult positions to get outside of the draft:
Prior picks:
R1-18 (trade-up): CB Nate Wiggins
R2-35 (traded EDGE): WR Xavier Worthy
Round 2, Pick 50: LB Junior Colson
You’d think a positional value mock draft would stick to the premium positions, but no, I’m going with LB here.
It’s a popular pick in Philly, but I’m not pandering here. I’m taking LB because if they drop in this draft, it’s likely a more valuable position to take than the premium positions. Here’s why:
The Eagles should have made a bigger move in free agency
Unlike the last two positions I wrote on (CB and WR), LB is the best position to get in free agency.
- LBs hit free agency more than any other position, with 10 of the leagues top 15 LBs have been obtained via free agency
- At an average of $7.1M AAV in free agency, LB is the second cheapest position to get in free agency, behind only RB and right ahead of IOL and SAF as the cheapest positions.
I wrote previously in “Fixing the Eagles Linebacker Group” that the Eagles should be more aggressive this year, paying up a bit to lock in a multi-year guy like Blake Cashman. Cashman signed a 3-year deal with the Vikings for $7.5M AAV, a worthwhile deal.
The Eagles signed Devin White at $4M, a move I did not love but it’s still probably better than they had last year. The Eagles need a coverage linebacker and that’s what I’m going after here.
But if LBs drop in this draft, it could be a gift to the Eagles
For this mock draft series, I am using a mix of Grinding the Mocks and NFL Mock Draft Database to get consensus player rankings. And at the Eagles pick at 50, here are how many of each position is projected to have been taken so far:
| Position | Expected # of Players Taken by Pick 50 (2024) | Average # Players Taken by Pick 50 |
|---|---|---|
| WR | 10 | 7 |
| OT | 9 | 6 |
| CB | 7 | 8 |
| EDGE | 6 | 8 |
| QB | 6 | 4 |
| DT | 5 | 5 |
| IOL | 2 | 5 |
| SAF | 2 | 3 |
| LB | 1 | 4 |
| TE | 1 | 2 |
| RB | 0 | 3 |
Only Edgerrin Cooper at pick 45 is projected to have been drafted by the Eagles 2nd rounder, with WR, OT, and CB heavily drafted.
LB is going to be better value than premium positions if it drops
Yes, I know the concept of surplus value well, but after the first 30 or so picks, surplus value differs much less across positions. At some point you ask, “is LB2 a better player than CB8 or WR11?”
And the answer is almost always yes.
Below shows the expected player value when you are taking the first player at that position (the total height of the bar, with higher being more valuable). Unsurprisingly, the premium positions lead here. But the blue bar shows the historical expected value based on how many of each position has been drafted so far (picking WR11, OT10, CB8, etc.):
The non-premium positions now have higher expected value because they have been so lightly drafted compared to WR, CB, EDGE, and OT. Obviously, the pick has to be for the right player, but the point is you are increasing your chances of success.
The 2021 draft is a great example
The 2021 draft started typical, with LBs off the board in the middle of the 1st when Jamin Davis and Zaven Collins taken. But then LBs sat, with 32 picks being made with no LBs going. By pick 52, there were 8 EDGEs, 8 CBs, 7 WRs, and 5 OTs taken.
With the Browns on the clock and needs at pass rusher and receiver, they instead took LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah at R2-52, a great athlete who had fallen due to “tweener” concerns.
And right after that, the Chiefs who also had bigger needs at pass rusher and cornerback and did not have a 1st round pick that year, took LB Nick Bolton at R2-58. And the run continued with the Saints taking Pete Werner at R2-60.
Both the Browns and Chiefs gained tremendous value in the draft with these picks, wisely passing over the best available players at their premium positions of need. Here are the value percentiles for their picks vs. the top available “premium” players:
| Pick | Player | Value Percentile |
|---|---|---|
| 2-52 | LB Nick Bolton | 70 |
| 2-58 | LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | 66 |
| 2-57 | WR Tutu Atwell | 41 |
| 2-54 | EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo | 41 |
| 2-59 | WR Terrace Marshall | 33 |
| 2-61 | EDGE Boogie Basham | 26 |
| 3-71 | CB Aaron Robinson | 13 |
| 2-56 | WR Dwayne Eskridge | 12 |
In fact, over the next 20 picks after JOK was taken, the majority of the picks were bad picks with the LBs being some of the better value players taken – only TE Pat Freiermuth, IOL Creed Humphrey and Josh Myers, and SAF Andre Cisco were other picks of value. Notice they are all “non-premium” positions.
“But it’s a bad LB class…”
Maybe. But pre-draft forecasts are often wrong, with “strong” classes often disappointing a bit and “weak” classes ending up better than was expected. Drafts average 5 above average linebackers.
Below shows pre-draft LB expectations vs. actuals since 2016. The orange line shows the expected quality of a LB class using the number of LBs in the pre-draft top-50. The blue bars show the actual number of elite and above average LBs by player value.
Looking back, the 2017, 2019, and 2023 were draft classes where LB was widely projected to be weak position groups. 2017 ended up being a weak class, but 2019 surprised as one of the stronger classes with Devin White, Quincy Williams, and 6 other above average LBs. Time will tell on the 2023 class but UDFA Ivan Pace Jr. looks to be good and Jack Campbell shows upside.
Since 2015, some of the best LBs have been the guys that have slipped into the 2nd round: Shaq Leonard, Jahlani Tavai, Eric Kendricks, Willie Gay, Deion Jones, Nick Bolton, and JOK.
Why Junior Colson: A special player and fit to the Eagles
I know it takes little convincing Philly fans to draft a LB, but hopefully this positional draft series gives you more reasoning on why it’s the likely the most valuable pick here. And from the prior two picks where I took CB and WR, why LB is not the value in the 1st round.
Edgerrin Cooper would have required the Eagles higher pick which just isn’t the right use of higher picks. You may want Payton Wilson or Cedric Gray or Trotter, and if you have one of the them graded higher, that is fine. I’m choosing Junior Colson and here’s why.
A bigger LB with the most coverage experience
The league is moving to smaller LBs so they can cover, and Colson is a rarity at 6’2″ and 238 lbs. Being 5-7 pounds heavier than the others in this class and 10 pounds more than Nakobe, he brings stopping power. His 17 career missed tackles and 4.2% missed tackle rate is crazy low – most others have as many missed tackles in just this past season.
But he is one of the better, and most experienced, coverage LBs in this class. Over 3 years, he has been in coverage for 1,006 snaps, over half his playing time, and has 98 career targets. With a 2023 83.4 coverage grade, he’s right up there at the top of this class and past top LB propsects.
For comparison, Edgerrin over four years has 728 coverage snaps, Trotter 676, and Payton 1,070 but over five seasons. Colson has been in coverage a ton, which is what the Eagles need.
An incredible story and a guy you are getting a ton of intangibles with
If you don’t know Colson’s story, it’s a great story. Growing up in Haiti, his father died and his will stipulated that Junior was to go into an orphanage where he stayed for two years. After the 2010 Haitian earthquake, an American, Melanie Colson, traveled to Haiti to assist. One stop was at Junior’s orphanage where they connected and she decided to adopt him, returning him to Tennessee to live where he picked up football and shined.
And he’s the type of player Philly – and any team – will love. Known for his work ethic, he was named Michigan’s “Toughest Player” this season. He broke his hand during a drive and stayed in, telling Mike Barrett he wasn’t coming out. At the end of the season, he was playing with a cast and shoulder wrap.
Thoughts on other options
Purely from a positional and surplus value perspective, you can take almost any position here. But here are my other options, in priority order:
- Offensive line – This is sweet spot for IOL in the draft and guys like Cooper Beebe and Christian Haynes would be great picks, as well as OT Kiran Amegadjie
- Safety – Another position of relative value, Javon Bullard could be interesting here
- Defensive line – It’s probably a top heavy pass rusher class, Marshawn Kneeland, Adisa Isaac, and Jonah Elliss are available
- Running Back – If we didn’t sign Saquon, I’d seriously be looking at Trey Benson or Jaylen Wright here
- Cornerback – Already taken a guy high, it’s a deep class this year, but it’s more slot CBs than outside guys now in the 2nd
- Tight End – A position I’d love to take as I think a post-Goedert era needs to be planned for, but I just don’t love this class and it’s historically been a low-value position to draft high
- Wide receiver – Took a WR with the last pick but this would be a great option given this class with Ricky Pearsall, Malachi Corley, Ja’Lynn Polk, and others