The term “positional value” is thrown around a lot, often abused, and usually smack dab in the middle of online disagreements around linebackers, safeties, and running backs.
This will be a four-part mock draft series, working through the Eagles first four picks. It’s not really meant to be a mock draft, it’s more of a dive into how I am thinking about positions and how I’d use the draft picks. And it won’t be straight chalk of the premium positions you may expect.
I’m using consensus player rankings from Grinding the Mocks and NFL Mock Draft Database, not a simulator. I’ve had Drake Maye, Quinyon Mitchell, and Jared Verse all drop to 22 in sims which just isn’t very likely.
Round 1, Pick 18:
CB Nate Wiggins
Trade 1-22, 5-160, and a 2025 R5 for the Bengals 1-18 pick. Terrion Arnold and Quinyon Mitchell are both gone by pick 16 and the Eagles move ahead of the Rams, Steelers, and Dolphins who all could take a CB.
Every year, you always wait for Combine overreactions and Nate Wiggins’ weigh-in caused one of the biggest ones this year.
And, thank you very much, I will gladly take his drop. Here’s why:
Match-ups vs. top college receivers
Prospects can only play who they play so you don’t always get match-ups vs. future pros, but when you do, it’s by far one of the things I value most in watching film. And Wiggins’ film against Keon Coleman, Tez Walker, and Xavier Legette is some of the best.
For those worrying about Wiggins size and play strength, he held big and explosive receivers – Coleman is 6’3″ 213 pounds, Legette is 6’1″ 220 and 4.39 speed, and Tez Walker is 6’1″ 193 with 4.36 speed – to some of their worst collegiate games.
In his 2023 season, he allowed 18 catches on 41 targets for 176 total yards and a draft class best 44 passer rating allowed. And one of the most impressive stats are his longest receptions allowed. He gave up one long 43-yard reception to Tez Walker, but aside from that, his game by game long receptions allowed are 4, 5, 1, 11, 5, 10, and 18. He gave nothing up outside of that one catch.
Physicality, mentality, and upside
I often joke that I want a finger-wagging corner. But it’s not really a joke – corners need to have that mentality. And there probably isn’t a corner in this class that is a bigger trash talker or is consistently in receivers faces than Wiggins.
If you are concerned about his weight, watch his physicality in press coverage. And, at only 20 years old, he’s going to get better and probably fills out some (although he is always going to be lean).
Tackling the “tackling question”…
Since his weigh-in, concerns on his tackling have been all over. Is he Devon Witherspoon? No. But the concerns are way overblown.
In coverage, his 38 total YAC and 2.1 YAC per reception is second best since 2020, behind only Trent McDuffie. And his 4.2% missed tackle rate in coverage is near the top of this class, behind only Quinyon and Kamari Lassiter. You don’t put these numbers up being a bad tackler.
As a comparison, in this class Terrion Arnold allowed 6.1 YAC per reception, Rakestraw 5.6, Kool-Aid 4.4, Quinyon 2.5, and Kamari 2.6. Last draft, Devon Witherspoon allowed 3.2 and Joey Porter Jr. 3.4.
The below clip is from @BoltsDraftTalk and shows what you are consistently getting from Wiggins in coverage.
In run support, Wiggins can be better. But across the NFL CBs account for only 11% of tackles in the run game. Yes, you would love a CB to be great in run support, but they are there to take away the offense’s best WR first. Prioritizing a CB that is great in run support over coverage is like taking an EDGE because they can drop into coverage effectively every so often.
For everybody complaining about Nate’s tackling, did you also want Jaylon Johnson in free agency? Jaylon is one of the worst tacklers in the league. Did you like Asante Samuel Jr or Joey Porter Jr? Neither is a good tackler. Slay isn’t great. And maybe the league’s best corner, Sauce, isn’t good. Give me a list of lockdown corners that are great tacklers… it’s not a big list.
Quickness and fluidity
Wiggins is one of the only corners in this class that has fluidity of movement, quickness to close, and top-end speed.
Speed doesn’t guarantee success but it’s also really hard to find a top CB in the league without it. The top 25 CBs average a 4.43 forty time and a 1.55 10-yard split. And it’s incredibly rare for any top CB to have a 4.5 or greater forty or a 1.58 10-yard, which gives me concerns on guys like Ennis Rakestraw (4.54 and 1.59) and Kool-Aid McKinstry (who hasn’t tested but I’m not expecting top numbers).
Wiggins’ 4.29 forty and 1.49 10-yard show up on film and put him well above what defines the NFL’s top corners.
Why I’m drafting a cornerback:
Good luck trying to get one any other way
Top CBs rarely hit free agency and need to be found in the draft
In 2019, 25-year old Jalen Ramsey was traded for three picks including two 1st rounders. Just this week, the jewel of this year’s CB class, 24-year old Jaylon Johnson, was extended by Chicago ahead of free agency.
Outside of QB, cornerback is the hardest position to get on the open market. If you look at the top 10 graded CBs, you see they come from the draft and teams rarely let good CBs go:
- 7 were obtained in the draft (5 still on their rookie contracts and 2 retained with an extension)
- Of the 7 drafted, 6 were taken in the 1st round and 1 in the 2nd round
- Only 3 hit free agency (Charvarius Ward, DJ Reed, and Kendall Fuller)
If you expand to the top 25 CBs, the story is largely the same:
- 18 were via the draft (11 still on rookie deal and 7 retained through an extension) with 9 taken in the 1st round and 3 on day 2
- Only 7 were obtained in free agency (the three above plus Mike Hilton, Rasul Douglas, Steven Nelson, and Jonathan Jones)
And when CBs hit free agency, it’s expensive with a ton of risk
CB is ranked 6th in free agency contract costs behind quarterbacks, receivers, pass rushers, and offensive and defensive tackles. But if you adjust for both age and player value, CB is the 2nd most expensive position, behind only EDGE.
Click to see age-adjusted free agent costs
Below shows average costs for free agents that are age 27 or under and a top player (defined as a 7+ AV per year player) – CB is only behind pass rushers:
| Position | Free Agent AAV |
|---|---|
| EDGE | 14,453,810 |
| CB | 13,500,000 |
| OT | 13,154,600 |
| SAF | 11,627,500 |
| WR | 9,912,501 |
| LB | 9,910,714 |
| IOL | 9,492,500 |
| DT | 9,050,000 |
| RB | 6,252,083 |
And every year, one of the top free agent CBs immediately hits the age cliff. In 2021, Washington signed 28-year old William Jackson to a 3-year $45M deal, only to fall off and get traded away. In 2022, everybody wanted JC Jackson who turned into an $82M free agent catastrophe. And last year, our own James Bradberry.
Just look at the not-good free agency options
Re-signing Bradberry was a mistake and there’s no defending it, but to defend Howie maybe a bit, what better options did the Eagles have? The top free agent CBs everybody wanted last year were the almost-33 year old Patrick Peterson, 28-year old Cam Sutton with a 102 passer rating allowed, and Byron Murphy and his 122 passer rating.
It’s the same story every year.
There are only a four CBs that weren’t 29 or 30 years old that turned out to be good signings: Charvarius Ward and DJ Reed in 2022, Mike Hilton in 2021, and Kendall Fuller in 2020. That’s 4 out of 239 CBs signed in free agency since 2020.
And it’s played out the same this off-season:
- Jaylon Johnson never hits the market, extended by Chicago to a 4-year, $76M deal
- L’Jarius Sneed is tagged at $19.8M and probably getting traded but at 27 years old, he’s going to want a deal that could become risky on age
- And a bunch of older guys either in decline or likely to decline in this next deal – Adore Jackson is 28, Kendall Fuller and Chidobe Awuzie are 29, Kenny Moore II is 30, Stephon Gilmore is 31, and Steven Nelson is 33
Who are the Eagles going to sign? Who is even remotely a multi-year solution?
The Eagles fit and need
Isaiah Rodgers is on a one-year deal and, if he plays well, is going to get expensive. We hope Kelee hits, but it’s dangerous to bet on either Ricks or Jobe – neither has shown the athletic profile to start.
“But is there room for Wiggins to play?” you may ask. First, you can’t have too many corners. And second, what if Wiggins comes in and the Eagles believe they have an immediate starter during camp? It’s not crazy to trade or release Slay which frees up $3M of 2024 cap space.
For a position with such big age risk, you can only get young CBs in the draft or by trading a fortune for a guy like Jalen Ramsey that a team doesn’t want to pay (and even those only come around every so often). And if you are looking to the draft, you better be looking high.
Which is what I am doing. Welcome to Philly Nate Wiggins.
Thoughts on other positions here
Corner is really the right position to take here, but which other positions make sense to me? And which don’t?
Positions I’d take here:
- Pass rusher – What I still think is most likely to be the pick, but Turner, Verse, and Latu were all gone (but stay tuned…)
- Receiver – Troy Franklin and Ladd McConkey are both available and I’d love either in the 1st
Positions I’m not taking here:
- Defensive tackle – Only if the board fell right (or wrong, depending on your perspective). Byron Murphy II is the only DT I’d take here and he is projected pick 16.
- Offensive tackle – I’ve written so much on this, it’s a premium position but just no for the Eagles this year. Like Byron Murphy, maybe Fautanu if the board fell a certain way.
- Linebacker, safety, and running back – They are all cheap and plentiful in free agency and don’t have R1 guys this year.
- Guards / centers – Always a priority for Philly, but they are the second worst position by surplus value as they are typically easy to get and comparatively cheap in free agency. I’m not drafting any of these guys over potentially a top CB.
Coming next, the 2nd round.