An Eagles Positional Value Mock Draft: A Trade and Locking in #SuperOffense

This is the second post in what is really my view on positional value, free agency, and the draft with an Eagles 2024 mock draft mixed in.

Prior picks:
R1-18: CB Nate Wiggins

In the first post, I made the case on why you must look to the draft for a CB. Few good CB options ever hit the open market and when they do, they are expensive and usually older guys at risk of decline. If you missed it, go check it out here:

And now in the 2nd round, I’m using a pick returned from trading Josh Sweat to realize what we (half-jokingly) refer to online as #superoffense.

Trade: Josh Sweat to the Cardinals for their 2024 R2-35 pick (forecasting trades is nearly impossible, maybe Josh doesn’t return this much, if not trade up with a later or future pick to make this work)

After taking one of the hardest positions to get outside of the draft in round 1, I’m going to take the actual hardest position to get (affordably) outside of the draft.

Wide receiver.

This offense would be deadly with speed like Xavier Worthy’s

The Eagles offense is very good but two things:

• It’s missing top-end speed
• It isn’t resilient to an injury to Goedert or DeVonta or AJ

Can you imagine this offense with Saquon, DeVonta, AJ, Goedert, and now somebody that forces the defense to keep safety help deep, makes it hard for CBs to play press, and if you do play Worthy off, he can do this to you:

The excitement I have for Kellen Moore is that he has shown he will take what the defense gives him way more than the Sirianni offense did.

And just think what adding Saquon and Worthy to this offense makes it – the defense always has a bad choice, they can’t stack the box and cover deep and cover five weapons plus Hurts at the same time.

He models his game after DeSean Jackson

Not saying he will be DeSean but there are similarities. We know Worthy is fast. Here are his testing numbers vs. DeSean – similar except Xavier is faster and a bit more explosive.

And DeSean had some of the best ball tracking in the history of the game and, while it will be hard for somebody to repeat that, Xavier may have the best ball-tracking skills in this class.

And Worthy’s better than his stats say

Worthy dominated as a freshman, which few do, but hasn’t progressed since then.

I had somebody ask me about Xavier’s deep receiving which is a good question – if you look at his stats, they aren’t that great – 6 receptions on 23 targets for 234 yards and a concerning 10.2 Y/RR, last in this class.

But his QB, Quinn Ewers, has a ridiculously bad 36.2% deep passing on-target percentage. To put that in perspective, the average QB for the top 100 WRs in this class had a near-50% on-target percentage. Jayden Daniels is near 70%, JJ McCarthy is 58%, and Bo Nix is 57%. Kyle McCord, Spencer Rattler, Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, and Jalen Milroe are all over 50%. One of the lowest is Micheal Penix Jr and he’s 47%.

The only NFL QB I could find close to this was Sam Howell who had a 39% on target percentage his senior year at UNC (an is continuing how poorly he is with Washington).

Ewers continually either missed Xavier or turned yards of separation into a contested catch as Derrick Bell points out below. That isn’t happening in the NFL.

Top receivers only come from the draft or trades

For CB, between 25-30% of the league’s top players hit free agency. But for receiver, it’s basically none. Instead, it’s mid-level guys in free agency that get paid like top guys or expensive trades.

Of the top 10 WRs, 7 came from the draft and 3 were from trades (AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams) – none of the top 10 WRs were obtained via free agency.

If you expand to the top 25 WRs, only 1 hit free agency (Mike Evans this year), with 18 coming from the draft (counting extensions) and 6 via trades.

And trades for receivers are very expensive

Of the 6 top WRs that were obtained via trade (one, Amari Cooper, was traded twice), every single one cost at least a 1st round pick and most cost a lot more and they all came with a big contract as part of the trade or shortly after.

Year	Top WR	Trade Compensation
2018	Amari Cooper	R1
2020	Stefon Diggs	R1, R5, R6, future R4
2020	Amari Cooper*	R5
2022	AJ Brown	R1, R3
2022	Davante Adams	R1, R2
2022	Tyreek Hill	R1, R2, R4, future R4, future R6
2023	DJ Moore	Part of CAR move-up for Bryce Young, DJ Moore ended up the equivalent value of trading R1-18

* Amari Cooper’s second trade to the Browns is the only exception here because the Cowboys were forced to dump him with everybody knowing he was going to be released.

But it’s easier to draft receivers

No position is easy, I’m not saying anybody can grab a top WR on day two. But unlike CB where the top guys are heavily dominated with early picks, you can get great receivers deeper in the draft.

• Half of the top 10 WRs came from outside the 1st round, with 3 on day two and 2 on day three.
• It’s even more if you expand to the top 25 WRs with 55% coming from outside the 1st round – 10 came from day two and another 4 from day three

Puka, Tyreek, Stefon Diggs, and Amon-Ra St Brown are the late picks everybody remembers, but more importantly are the day two guys – AJ Brown, Davante Adams, DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, Keenan Allen, Deebo, Michael Pittman, Nico Collins, and last year’s Rashee Rice.

It’s crazy to pass on a receiver with how good this class is

You just can’t pass on a receiver in this class. It’s talented at the top end with three guys – MHJ, Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze – that are WR1s most other years. But it is also deep.

Since 2000, the most receivers taken in the 1st round is 7 in 2004. Seven other times 6 WRs have been taken, including most recently 2020 and 2022. I’d be shocked if this year doesn’t beat those marks.

Receivers will be drafted heavily, but a lot of teams still need QBs and tackles which are also strong classes this year. And cornerbacks are always drafted heavily no matter the class.

There are going to be really good receivers available later than they normally are just because of how good this class is. For a lot of teams, even if they don’t need a WR, it is likely going to be BPA when they are on the clock.

The Eagles are going to need a WR soon

Many think because we have AJ and DeVonta, receiver isn’t a need. And it isn’t an immediate need. But…

As much as we love AJ Brown, he is only probably here 2 more years due to both age and cost. Look at where contracts are set up with “outs” for an idea of what could happen – AJ’s has an out after the 2024 season where he has a cap savings even with a pre-June 1 trade or release. In 2026, he will be 29 years old with a $41M cap hit in 2026, with $36M of that hit being avoidable cost. $41M in 2026 is never going to happen. Sure, he may be restructured or extended, but again, he will be 27 this summer and 29 at the end of this deal.

During this time, DeVonta is going to get paid. His 5th year option in 2025 will be picked up at around $15M but I don’t see how his extension doesn’t have a $30M AAV when WRs like Calvin Ridley and Michael Pittman are getting $23M a year. Remember, he and his agent are going to be negotiating for what his AAV is going to be from 2026 through 2030, not what it should be in 2024. We already have a $30M WR (Tyreek), a $28M one (Davante Adams), and a $27M one (Cooper Kupp).

Keeping both AJ and DeVonta is likely going to consume $70M of cap on an AAV basis from 2026 on. Yes, the cap will grow but the Eagles are committing 13% of their cap to WRs in 2024. Keeping both would almost double it, going to 23% of the 2026 cap (assuming an 8% annual cap growth). That’s not happening.

The Eagles need to start preparing for a post-AJ world and there’s no guarantee you are just going to hit on a pick when you need to, as we saw with JJAW and Reagor. With this WR class, it makes sense to take a shot now when you may have 1st round talents dropping into the 2nd.

You can make a strong case for a lot of positions here and as the draft goes on, “positional value” becomes less and less important. But I’m not trying to just regurgitate standard “positional value” points.

Positions I’d take here:

• Pass rusher or defensive tackle – By far, the positions you would also want to get here. Players like Darius Robinson, Chris Braswell, and Braden Fiske are here and would be great picks.
• Offensive line – Tackles like Kingsley Suamataia and Kiran Amegadjie are here.
• Safety – Normally probably not a position I’d take here, but if you really thought Tyler Nubin is good enough, he’s an option.

Positions I’m not taking here:

• Linebacker – Just not this high as I am not sure there is a LB worthy of a high R2 pick.
• Running back – Not with signing Saquon.