Continuing my deep-dive into the Eagles off-season, this time a look at what they should do at RB: re-sign D’Andre Swift, continue with rentals, or dip back into the draft? A look at RB career length and what it means for free agency… and why I would probably look to the draft this year regardless of what they do in free agency.
Detroit unloaded a giant one-two punch on the positional value debate this past draft, shocking almost everybody (myself included) by taking a RB at pick 12 and an off-ball LB at 18. And with their next pick at 34, they took a TE – the only thing they were missing was an interior offensive linemen to take the four “lowest value” positions in the draft.
Detroit’s GM Brad Holmes defended the picks: “They’re football players, if you believe that they can have an impact for you on the football field, then you just go ahead and take them.”
And now they may be saying “we told you so”.
With 1,443 total yards, the 3rd highest explosive rush rate, and 6th most pass targets among RBs, Jahmyr Gibbs is the 3rd highest value player in the 2023 draft behind only CJ Stroud and Puka Nacua and a huge part of the Lions success this season.
An interesting comparison of Detroit and Philly’s draft philosophies
This comes right back to the Eagles running back situation.
Once Detroit drafted Jahmyr on top of just signing David Montgomery in free agency, previous 2nd round pick D’Andre Swift became expendable as he was entering a contract year.
Howie, the stalwart of positional value, picked up Swift during the draft on the cheap by taking advantage of a team un-wise in the ways, right?
The Lions prioritize premium positions more than you may expect (and the Eagles maybe less)
But do you know where the Eagles and Lions each rank in draft capital allocated to premium positions over the past three drafts?
- Eagles 12th in the league, 62.4% of draft capital
- Lions 13th, 61.5% of capital
Rankings that are surprising to most I am sure.
But the Eagles have invested a lot at OG/C which, no matter how much you love the trenches philosophy, is next to RB and below LB and TE as some of the cheapest positions to get in free agency.
In the same time, the Lions, yes, took a RB but also loaded up on the defensive line, receiver, and took Penei Sewell with their other top picks.
I’m not here to say draft a RB at pick 12 – playing Monday-morning quarterback, would the Lions have been better off taking Christian Gonzalez and Calijah Kancey in the 1st and then De’Von Achane later? Maybe. It’s what I would have done, but I’m also not in the NFC Championship game.
Why I find this an interesting conversation on positional value
I absolutely believe in positional value, it’s crazy not to – with the salary cap, you cannot think about just a player, the cost and cap implications are always important. But I also think it can be taken to an absolute.
Ultimately, you take good players and I think two things:
- Think about premium positions and investment over time, not absolute every year, every pick – Brad Holmes invests in premium positions at the same level as Philly over a multi-year period, but doesn’t have absolutes.
- Eventually the talent at a non-premium position outweighs premium positions – 2023 was an anomaly with two RBs taken really high, but typically the first two are taken between picks 25-40. In R2, teams can typically take the top player at a position vs. WR6 or EDGE7.
The case for drafting RBs – when they are most valuable
A lot has been written on the running back “age cliff”, and no matter what you think of it, RBs do begin to dropoff shortly after entering the league.
The majority of RB value is during their first 3 years in the league – so why not draft them?
Below are RBs entering the league since 2010 with at least 200 career carries and their yards per attempt and rush attempts per year. The shaded blue area is their 4-year rookie contract (R1 through R4) and then into their second contract (FA1 through FA4).
Some key points:
- RB second contracts average a 60% decrease in total yardage
- Only 16 out of 125 RBs increased their yardage after their rookie contract
- By year 5, 25% of RBs generate no yardage (injured or out of the league) and by year 6 that increases to 45%
- Almost half of young RBs rush for 500+ yards and a quarter go over 750 yards, but those numbers begin to decline in year 4 and are cut in half by year 5
So yes, it makes sense to draft RBs when you have them for the majority of their value. You don’t have to take them in R1, but they make sense to draft. For example, 2022’s top four RBs taken between picks R2-36 and R3-91 are 2nd, 6th, 16th, and 21st in the league in rushing this year.
Buyer beware with free agent RBs – make them low risk signings
While teams know the risk with RBs as they age, every year there are a couple of free agent deals that just go too long or have too much guaranteed money. Last year it was Leonard Fournette and this year it looks like it could be Miles Sanders.
Below shows the performance of the top free agent RBs before and after they signed their free agent contracts since 2010. Every RB signing for 2% or more of the salary cap is included, which is typically the top 2-3 guys each year (and today, only 12 RBs in the league have a 2% of the cap or higher contract).
It’s not hard to see the risk of signing free agent RBs…
Again, some key stats that don’t paint a great picture:
- Average yardage dropped almost 50% on the new deal, from 794 yards per year to 426
- Usage also dropped by the same amount, with these top free agent RBs averaging 98 carries per season with their new teams, down from 180 prior to their deal
- Only 7 of 49 top free agent RBs improved their output with their new team and only 12 were even at 80% of their pre-free agent performance
Yes, there are guys like Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Aaron Jones that are well worth their contracts, but they are by far the exception.
What should the Eagles do?
This is where the positional value debate gets interesting:
RBs are a non-premium position because it’s a passing league and they don’t last… because of surplus value, you shouldn’t spend top draft capital on RBs… as a non-premium position, typically you are better off looking in free agency… but because RBs don’t last long, signing them in free agency is either highly risky or a short-term option… so maybe the best place to get them is in the draft when you have them (1) cheap and (2) for the majority of their most productive years.
This is the debate facing the Eagles (and every team), and there’s only a couple of ways to go:
- Go the free agency route, hope for luck, but know that you most likely are making a mistake (Eagles 2015)
- Live in the one-year, low-risk running back model (Eagles 2016-2018, 2023)
- Draft one (Eagles 2009, 2019)
The case to re-sign D’Andre Swift
3-year, $16.0M contract with $8M guaranteed
In my Eagles full off-season mock, I said I would re-sign D’Andre Swift if you could do a 3-year, $16.0M deal. RB deals typically have around half the contract guaranteed meaning you need to get a year-and-a-half out of him at market value.
I think that’s well worth it – here’s why:
- 25 years old with only 700 career carries
- Over 1,300 combined yards this year
- Not showing signs of decline
- Underutilized receiving upside
But his price could be higher – Sportrac is now forecasting his deal to be 4-years, $22.7M because of the David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, and James Conner comps. But if that’s his market, it starts becoming risky with probably $11-12M guaranteed.
Continue to live in the rental market
After a few down years, some big names are hitting free agency this year. But the Eagles will, and should, avoid this top end.
Here are some of the top RB free agent options I wouldn’t be interested in:
Expensive / showing signs of decline: Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Austin Ekeler
Too expensive: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry
Injury concerns: AJ Dillon (history of RBs returning from Achilles tears is not good – Marlon Mack, Cam Akers, Mikel Leshoure)
Generally limiting to younger free agents, there are three maybe interesting options:
- Zack Moss: My favorite on the list, he finally got an opportunity in Indy and showed he is an NFL RB, but he’ll sit again with Jonathan Taylor returning. He’d be comparable to what we had with Swift plus better blocking.
- Devin Singletary: Unlikely he leaves Houston, but he would be a solid option although one of the worst pass blockers in this group.
- AJ Dillon: If you are one that wants a big back, he’s your guy… has been really consistent and productive but could be starting to show signs of decline as yards after contact and explosive rate are both down this year.
| Free Agent | Age | Rushing Yds / Avg | Rush Yds After Contact | Missed Tackle Rate | Receptions / Yds | Blocking Grade | Proj Contract (Yrs/Total) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D’Andre Swift | 25.0 | 1083 (4.5) | 2.44 | 20% | 43/246 | 48.9 | 4/$22M |
| AJ Dillon | 25.7 | 613 (3.4) | 2.69 | 12% | 22/223 | 56.0 | 2/$8M |
| Zack Moss | 26.1 | 793 (4.3) | 2.79 | 22% | 27/192 | 60.4 | 2/$9M |
| JK Dobbins *2022 stats | 25.1 | 582 (5.5) | 3.04 | 18% | 11/85 | 59.0 | 2/$4M |
| Derrick Henry | 30.0 | 1167 (4.2) | 3.32 | 20% | 28/214 | 79.5 | 2/$20M |
| Saquon Barkley | 26.9 | 962 (3.9) | 2.91 | 11% | 41/280 | 76.6 | 2/$22M |
| Josh Jacobs | 25.9 | 805 (3.5) | 2.35 | 4% | 37/296 | 50.9 | 4/$43M |
| Tony Pollard | 26.7 | 1061 (4.0) | 2.86 | 8% | 62/340 | 70.6 | 3/$20M |
| Austin Ekeler | 28.7 | 632 (3.5) | 2.63 | 4% | 51/436 | 29.3 | 3/$22M |
| Devin Singletary | 26.3 | 985 (4.1) | 2.88 | 11% | 38/245 | 34.3 | 3/$13M |
Or should Howie return to the draft?
Yes, this is what I would do. Even if they re-sign D’Andre on a shorter deal, taking a back makes sense.
Howie had the benefit of inheriting LeSean McCoy when he joined the Eagles. But after returning to Chip’s mess, he’d cobbled together one-year rentals for a few years until he took Miles Sanders in 2019 at pick 53. The Eagles have Gainwell for another year, probably pick up another cheap veteran, but it’s time to break out of the one-year rentals.
I’ve written on this several times, but the things I care about – and what I think best projects to the NFL – are the following:
- Ability to create on their own, best reflected by yards after contact and missed tackle rate
- A threat on offense, showing an explosive rush rate
- Blocking because the Eagles require / need their RBs to block
And this year there are two that check all of the above and should also be reasonable draft capital, both currently projected in R4 but I expect to go a bit higher:
Audric Estime, Notre Dame – Round 2-3
If you follow me you probably already know, but my top target in this draft is Notre Dame’s Audric Estime. I normally prefer smaller, explosive guys but Audric is special:
- 5’11” and 227 lbs and runs like a small back
- Rare explosiveness and initial burst at his size, he may not put up a top 40 time, but I think he is going to surprise with a (more important) 10-yard split
- Limits negative plays, he by far leads college football RBs in total EPA on rush attempts (+41 per SIS Sports)
- Plus blocker
- Well-graded, but under utilized, pass catcher
- Only 20 years old
Jaylen Wright, Tennessee – Round 3-4
I cannot understand why there isn’t more hype on Jaylen – in a league where speed and explosiveness is becoming currency, he’s the guy driving around in a Bentley.
- 5’11 210 lbs, he’s bigger than most people think
- Video game like acceleration and his top-end speed is real, hitting 22.2 mph this year
- Underrated contact balance with a higher yards after contact than Bijan, Charbonnet, and Roschon last year
- Explosive rush rate is the best in the past two classes, a guy that will be a threat any time he touches the ball
- Big games against the best run defenses in the SEC (1/120 vs Kentucky, 9/90 vs. UGA, and 19/136 vs. Texas A&M)
- Another plus pass blocker
This RB class is viewed as a down class with a lot of guys returning to school. But there will be good backs and there are a few other guys that should be interesting. Quick thoughts on the ones I like:
- Bucky Irving – Probably the most dangerous open-field runner in this class, I am hesitant to take anybody that isn’t a great pass blocker with what the Eagles expect of their RBs, but he would be fun as a secondary guy.
- Trey Benson – Another all-around solid back and another top-speed guy, he has good contact balance, plus receiving value, and can block.
- Jonathan Brooks – A complete back, the only issue is the torn ACL. Even though surgeries have gotten a lot better, RBs usually don’t return, at least not quickly, to their pre-injury levels (see Breece Hall and Javonte Williams).
- Blake Watson – One of the smaller backs in this class, he has good explosiveness and one of the better pass catchers. His age is undisclosed but may be an older prospect.
If there are other backs in this class you are interested in, below are the top projected guys and their numbers:
| Prospect | School | Rushing Yds / Avg | Rush Yds After Contact | Missed Tackle Rate | Explosive Rate | Receptions / Yds | Blocking Grade | Proj Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audric Estime | Notre Dame | 1341 (6.4) | 4.27 | 31% | 18% | 17/142 | 63.0 | 4 |
| Jaylen Wright | Tennessee | 1010 (7.4) | 4.35 | 32% | 26% | 22/141 | 73.1 | 4 |
| Bucky Irving | Oregon | 1192 (6.4) | 3.99 | 37% | 18% | 55/395 | 23.1 | 4 |
| Jonathan Brooks | Texas | 1135 (6.1) | 3.91 | 34% | 13% | 25/286 | 75.2 | 2 |
| Trey Benson | Florida St | 905 (5.8) | 3.53 | 29% | 15% | 20/227 | 69.7 | 3 |
| Ray Davis | Kentucky | 1131 (5.7) | 3.81 | 26% | 16% | 32/324 | 40.2 | 4 |
| Blake Corum | Michigan | 1245 (4.8) | 2.42 | 12% | 9% | 16/117 | 54.3 | 3 |
| Blake Watson | Memphis | 1151 (6.0) | 3.74 | 26% | 17% | 53/483 | 47.4 | 7 |
| Marshawn Lloyd | USC | 816 (7.1) | 3.97 | 41% | 21% | 13/232 | 28.9 | 4 |
| Braelon Allen | Wisconsin | 982 (5.4) | 3.77 | 27% | 13% | 28/131 | 31.1 | 4 |
| Will Shipley | Clemson | 840 (5.0) | 2.92 | 16% | 18% | 31/231 | 24.9 | 4 |
Thanks for reading and if you aren’t already, please follow us at:
X: @PhillyCvrCorner, @PhillyEagleNews, and @GregHartPA
Threads: PhillyCoverCorner