I was (luckily) in the car for the entirety of the Eagles-Cardinals debacle and only listening to it streaming. But on the last “real” Eagles drive after recovering the onside kick, with a chance to burn the clock and go back up a touchdown, the Eagles did what it seems like they have done all year…
“Holding… number 68… 10-yard penalty… repeat 1st down…”
With just over 4 minutes left in the game, Jordan Mailata backs the Eagles up to 1st-and-20 in what would then become the season-defining disastrous series.
This holding call made me dig into Eagles penalty data because it seemed like they have a terrible, no good, damaging penalty at the worst time every game this year. And, you know what? They basically do.
In a late-season stretch this terrible, if you are still reading this far about penalties, I either thank you for reading or wonder if you need help like I do. Or both.
First, what’s the reality with penalties across the league?
If there is one group under more scrutiny than the Eagles coaching staff right now, it is NFL referees. They’ve had a terrible year with weekly egregious missed or incorrect calls. I’m not debating that or even going to try to dig into it as over a full season, I believe this evens out.
We’ve seen other fan bases whine about Lane’s false start step (which isn’t a penalty, go look it up if you disagree) or Slay with a tug on a receiver. And Eagles fans aren’t immune from the complaining either – Kelee Ringo’s pass interference is the most recent one, earlier season missed holds on Jalen Carter, and others.
But as I dug into penalty data, a few surprising things popped out:
1. Penalties are down across the league
Contrary to what most may think, penalties have been trending down for years. The 2023 season is on track to average 11.6 penalties and 96.5 yards of penalties per game, both down over 16% since 2015.
Relatively steady for years, you see below most of this decrease has occurred since the 2020 Covid season where called penalties collapsed 20% alone. In 2021, penalties rebounded a little but never got back to where they were before.
2. Defense, not offense, is seeing more of the drop in called penalties
Again contrary to what most probably believe in today’s “more offense” league, penalties called on defenses have fallen 22%, twice the decline that offense has seen. It’s similar if you look at penalty yardage – defense is seeing 20% fewer penalty yardage vs. offense’s 15% drop.
3. Maybe unsurprisingly, defensive pass interference and offensive offsides are getting called while offensive pass interference isn’t
Eagles fans, you aren’t crazy if you think DPI and offensive offsides are called on a lot. It isn’t just the Eagles, while most penalties are being called less, these are the two penalties that stand out for increases.
- DPI is up 13% since 2015 and 24% since last year
- Offensive offsides is up 8% since 2015, 13% since last year
Teams are even using underthrown deep balls that generate DPI at a high rate. On the other side, offensive pass interference – which is becoming like holding where it could be called on almost every play – is down 37% since 2015.
4. Finally, bringing some balance… holding cowardly QBs to account
They aren’t calling receivers pushing off, but they are finally calling more intentional groundings. While still a small fraction of total penalties, intentional grounding calls are up 62% since 2015 and 43% since just last year. With a game still to go, this year’s 55 intentional groundings are already by far the most of any season since at least 2015 and nearly double most seasons.
This one makes me happier than anything else here as it has long been the penalty I thought was way under-called. Favorable rules allowing QBs outside the pocket to throw the ball away are well intentioned to protect QBs but I, for one, hope this trend continues. I’m with Hasson Reddick – pass rushers should be rewarded here.
5. And surprisingly, personal fouls are down across the board
Another one I think most fans would think are way up, personal fouls of all sorts (roughing, taunting, low blocks, and the famed horse collar tackle from the Bills game) are actually down across the board.
- Total personal fouls are down 23% since 2015 with most of the drop since 2020
- Offensive personal fouls are down 37% and defensive personal fouls down 17%
Even with (or maybe because of) recent rule changes like getting flagged for hitting QBs low or landing on them with your weight, these big 15-yarders are down more than any other penalty. While sometimes frustrating to fans as so many of these are grey area calls where you question what a defender could have done differently, if fewer dangerous hits are happening, that’s a good thing.
Click here for detail on changes in frequency of different offensive and defensive penalties over the years
Offensive penalties are dominated by offsides and holding / blocking penalties, accounting for a third of total penalties. You will see the big uptick on offensive offsides calls this year.
On the defensive side, penalties are more mixed with personal fouls, pass interference, offsides, and holding / blocking being the leading penalty types.
Now on to the Eagles…
If you hate seeing flags on every other play, all of the above should make you happy. But if you are an Eagles fan (which I assume most are here), the good news ends there.
Eagles defensive penalties are up 40% since last year
Remember above where I said defenses are seeing the most benefit from fewer penalty calls? Not the Eagles. Defensive penalties are up over 40% since last year driven by pass interference (14 DPIs, most in the league) and defensive offsides (13 calls, 4th most).
The Eagles secondary, with an aging Bradberry and a lot of young guys who were known to be grabby coming out of college, have 3 corners in the top 13 most penalized CBs in the league (including Ringo and Jobe at 1st and 4th).
| Rank | Cornerback | Team | Penalty Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelee Ringo | PHI | 4.35% |
| 2 | Brandin Echols | NYJ | 4.26% |
| 3 | L’Jarius Sneed | KC | 3.83% |
| 4 | Josh Jobe | PHI | 3.59% |
| 5 | Tre Avery | TEN | 3.32% |
| 6 | Joey Porter Jr. | PIT | 3.22% |
| 7 | Jack Jones | LV | 2.85% |
| 8 | Tre Brown | SEA | 2.71% |
| 9 | Cor’Dale Flott | NYG | 2.68% |
| 10 | Desmond King II | HST | 2.67% |
| 11 | Charvarius Ward | SF | 2.54% |
| 12 | CJ Henderson | CAR | 2.53% |
| 13 | Eli Ricks | PHI | 2.46% |
| 14 | Deonte Banks | NYG | 2.42% |
| 15 | Jaylon Jones | CHI | 2.38% |
| 16 | Damarri Mathis | DEN | 2.37% |
| 17 | Deane Leonard | LAC | 2.36% |
| 18 | Jayron Kearse | DAL | 2.33% |
| 19 | Derion Kendrick | LA | 2.20% |
| 20 | Benjamin St-Juste | WAS | 2.18% |
The offensive line – and Kelce’s hand – are also way up
Over half (24) of their offensive penalties are offsides, false starts, and neutral zone infractions, well above league average and 4th most in the league. Kelce has 6 and Landon has 2 where they were mistakenly identified as Kelce’s hand.
But it’s not the quantity of penalties, it’s how impactful they are
A penalty isn’t a penalty as shown by the Mailata holding at the top. You have to look at where they happen within the context of the game and when you do, the Eagles are one of the worst in the league and historically bad.
Win percentage added (WPA) measures how much a play affects a team’s chance to win a game and factors in score, time remaining, down and field position. The Eagles have lost 3.34 WPA due to penalties this year which you could think of as 3.3 games worth of wins. This is 3rd worst this year behind the Titans and Chargers and the worst for the Eagles since at least 2015.
I posted this following chart earlier in the week which includes both damage from penalties and turnovers. The top right are teams that have lost a lot of win percentage from both penalties and turnovers, which is where the Eagles are as up there with Cleveland as one of the worst teams this season (grey circles are past season which shows the 2023 Eagles are one of the top handful of worst teams here).
Two recent losses show these key penalties. The Mailata holding against Arizona lowered the Eagles chance of winning by 5%. Bradberry’s 4th quarter pass interference against Seattle that allowed them to pull within 4 points lowered win percentage by 12%.
But what’s worse (or better, depending on how you look at it) is the Eagles have been twice bailed out by Jake Elliott:
- Washington Hurts grounding – The bad call on Hurts for intentional grounding in overtime vs. the Commanders was the most damaging (-24% win percentage), pushing them out of field goal range on 3rd-and-17. A DeVonta catch and run and Jake Elliott 54-yarder bailed them out.
- Double offsides against the Bills – The two Kelce false starts on the final drive against the Bills are two of the most damaging penalties this year, but again, Philly gets bailed out by Jake Elliott with his 59-yarder in terrible weather to send the game to overtime.
With a worse or even league-average kicker, the Eagles very easily have two more losses where penalties on late game-changing drives were difference-makers.
All of this matches what we see and what this team is. This is just an undisciplined team and in a really disappointing year, these penalties are just one more thing they are doing to hurt themselves.
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