All of Philly should be happy with the hiring of new OC Kellen Moore and the likely end of Nick’s stubborn “just let AJ and DeVonta win downfield” offense.
Kellen Moore’s offenses have been good but look what they’ve done against the top defenses
Kellen has had a top 10 offense three of five seasons, only missing in 2020 when Dak went down and, of course, this past season with the Chargers.
But what’s missed by many, and probably more importantly, is his offenses have put up really good numbers against the league’s top defenses. In Dallas, he had one of the best offenses against top 10 defenses every year except 2020.
| Team | Season | Offense PPG Rank | YPG vs. Top 10 Defenses (rank) | PPG vs. Top 10 Defenses (rank) | PPG Over Expected (rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 2019 | 6th | 432 (1st) | 26.6 (5th) | +3.4 (5th) |
| DAL | 2020 | 17th* | 372 (13th) | 25.2 (15th) | +1.4 (12th) |
| DAL | 2021 | 1st | 402 (2nd) | 28.3 (5th) | +5.1 (6th) |
| DAL | 2022 | 4th | 355 (10th) | 27.4 (4th) | +5.4 (4th) |
| LAC | 2023 | 20th** | 329 (18th) | 21.1 (19th) | +0.4 (16th) |
**2023 lost Herbert week 14
You may say “what about the playoff losses?” Sure, but now that he’s in Philly, he has Jalen Hurts…
“But what about the Chargers this year?”… They are better than you may think
Strength of schedule matters.
To account for the strength of defenses faced, “PPG Over Expected” above reflects how many points an offense scored (excludes special teams and defensive scoring) vs. the average a defense allowed – it is similar to adjusting for strength of schedule but adjusts specifically for the strength of an opposing defense.
Looking at PPG Over Expected, Kellen’s two “bad” seasons are a bit better than most think:
- 2020 Cowboys – in the 5 games Dak played, Kellen’s offense was 2nd in the league at +8.8 PPG over expected, averaging 489 yards and 32.8 PPG to start the season
- 2023 Chargers – through week 13 before Easton Stick came in at QB, the Chargers were 10th in the league at +1.6 PPG over expected
Everybody knows the Chargers were heavily injured in 2023 – they lost the 2nd most amount of playing time due to injuries including their QB, top WR, and top RB.
But what is missed is the difference in quality of opponent. In 2022 the Chargers had the 2nd easiest set of defenses and played only two top-10 defenses, the 49ers and Colts.
In 2023, they played the 2nd hardest set of defenses, playing nine top-10 defenses including the Ravens, Cowboys, Jets, and Chiefs twice.
For a team that only won 5 games, they went 4-3 against the top defenses with Justin Herbert.
Missing their QB and top offensive weapons for most of the season and playing more top defenses than all but one team, Kellen’s offense improved over their 2022 season.
“Well the Cowboys got better when he left”… Mmm, maybe not
The 2023 Cowboys were very good (until the playoffs once again), I’m not here to knock them down at all. And again, if you just look at overall offensive stats, the 2023 Cowboys were better than the prior year.
But the 2023 Cowboys had the easiest set of defenses to play in the league, only playing two top 10 defenses (and they were the Jets and the Patriots). In fact, this was the easiest set of defenses any team played since 2021, with opposing defenses allowing an expected 23.5 PPG.
Kellen’s 2022 Cowboys had a much tougher schedule – it was the 13th hardest in the league with seven top-10 defenses played.
Again, the 2023 Cowboys were very good and they scored points against nearly every team. But to say the offense got better after Kellen left isn’t as clear as most proclaim it to be.
And his teams rarely took care of him in the draft or free agency
Yes, he’s had good QBs in both stops and the Dallas teams had talent, so I am exaggerating here a bit.
But every March, Kellen Moore had to have been sitting there waiting for free agents that never came… and then in April, he waited for draft picks that never added weapons.
- 2019 – Yes, this was the good year, Dallas added CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard after letting Cole Beasley go in free agency
- 2020 – Nothing
- 2021 – Nothing
- 2022 – Another net loss year, losing Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson at receiver and longtime OL starters La’el Collins and Connor Williams, added Tyler Smith in the draft
- 2023 – Quentin Johnston
Coming to Philly, he is inheriting one of the better offensive lines, two top receivers, a top tight end, and Jalen Hurts. But it doesn’t mean we don’t have some holes and that we can’t welcome him better than his past teams have.
So, let’s draft some guys for Kellen Moore:
The Kellen Moore Eagles Mock Draft
First, the draft’s biggest ballhawk to get the offense back on the field
R1: SAF Tyler Nubin, Minnesota
“What I thought this was an offensive mock for Kellen Moore?!” you may be saying. Yep it is a mock for Kellen. Or maybe “this is too high for a safety and the Eagles would never?” Eh, whatever. Most likely could trade back here some but not going to over-model this.
What better help for an offense than to give them the ball back. And often. Here we get Kellen (and a two-fer by helping Vic Fangio) the biggest ball-hawk in this class.
- 1 out of every 4 times he was targeted this season, he took the ball away with 5 interceptions on the season
- And it’s not just one season – he has 13 career interceptions on just 87 target, a ridiculous 15% interception rate
- He has almost as many interceptions and PBUs (26) as receptions allowed (30)
- Add in 2 forced fumbles and he’s going to be a menace
Dumb teams throw at Tyler Nubin. Don’t be a dumb team.
Center, guard, spot tackle? I don’t know but we want Barton
R2: OL Graham Barton, Duke
This one would require a trade-up most likely and I’d do it. He is still one of the cleanest guys to me on film. Where does he play? Many think he could be the best center in this class and will be playing center at the Senior Bowl. And he could play guard.
Regardless, he is a highly athletic technician and nasty finisher to continue ensuring this offensive line remains one of the best in the league.
- Has a nasty streak in finishing, 17 big time blocks in 2022, 5 more than anybody else
- One of the top graded linemen in 2023 despite playing injured some of the year, he had elite grades in 2022 as the only OL with 80+ grades against the run and pass
While we aren’t returning to a run-heavy offense, we are adding the best all-around RB in this class
R2: RB Trey Benson, Florida St
Right now the Eagles don’t even have a starting RB, and even if D’Andre Swift returns, they need to get a longer-term answer. Trey Benson is probably the most complete back in this class and fits what Kellen has had with Pollard and Akeler.
- One of the highest explosive play rates in recent drafts, he has the 2nd highest career rate (11.7%) of 15+ yard runs, ahead of RBs last year like Achane, Bijan, and Jahmyr, behind only Ravens injured rookie phenom Keaton Mitchell
- Asset in the pass game, he has the 2nd best yards per route run in this class and – important for this offense – is a plus blocker
- Limits negative plays – tied for 1st in this class with percentage of positive rushes when there is a blown block
- Speed… an underrated aspect of his game, Benson has been clocked over 22 mph and is tied with Bucky Irving for most times over 21 mph this season
Trey Benson is a solid receiving option out of the backfield. He frequently lined up outside or in the slot, similar to how the Chargers use Austin Ekeler.
— BOLTS Draft Talk (@BoltsDraftTalk) December 8, 2023
Film showed receptions on back shoulder fades & deep catches off wheel routes.
Check out this screen and fun broken tackle. pic.twitter.com/WPTNp4AsFF
A man-coverage beating slot receiver
R3: WR Malik Washington, Virginia
David (@PHLEagleNews) has been telling me about Malik for months and he has started to pop in Shrine Bowl practices (Malik, not David…)
Kellen has had one thing in both his stops that the Eagles don’t have right now – a good slot receiver. CeeDee and Keenan Allen are two of the best in the league out of the slot. And the best receivers in this class at that areMalik Nabers, Xavier Legette, and Malik Washington.
- Heavy slot usage with 84% of targets coming out of the slot, with a silly 93 catches on 116 targets (class best 80%) for 1,127 yards, only graded behind Malik Nabers
- His twitch and route running defeats man coverage with a best-in-this-class 81% reception percentage (40 receptions on 49 targets for 463 yards and an 86% contested catch rate)
- While I value and want a WR that can beat man coverage as that translates to the NFL, Malik is equally dangerous if you zone him as he finds gaps incredibly well (again, only Nabers graded better than him)
Welcome to Philly Kellen Moore, unlike your past stops, we want to give you even more talent.
A draft almost all on offense won’t happen, especially with long-term upgrades needed on defense. And the intent of this post isn’t to say this should be the draft, but it shows players that make sense.