A lot of prospect clips you will see are well blocked, uncontested runs which are great, but tell you little about the back himself. But if you’ve read my stuff for a while, you will know I look for two things in running backs:
- Elusiveness – an ability to create on their own through forced missed tackles and yards after contact
- Explosiveness – generating big runs
When you look at the top NFL running backs this year and how they fared in college, they all stand out in elusiveness and explosiveness.
The top NFL running backs all stood out in college on elusiveness and explosiveness
When you look at the top running backs in the NFL, they almost without exception all were top college RBs in elusiveness and explosiveness – they are some of the most translatable traits from college to pro.
At the bottom of the article I have a chart on this data in case you want to dig in more.
And the past two years (articles here and here) I highlighted in the past two drafts that stood out on both elusiveness and explosiveness include Dameon Pierce, Tyler Allgeier, Jahmyr Gibbs, De’Von Achane, Zach Charbonnet, and Tank Bigsby.
It’s obviously not a guarantee to be a good pro, but very few pros didn’t also show these traits in college.
The guys to go get
Let’s look at the 2024 guys who also stand out and look to be top pros. If you are a prospect and can’t create on your own, chances of college success translating to the NFL are low.
I’ve left out the guys that are expected to return to school including Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson (but will one of the top backs in this class if he does enter the draft), Texas’ Jonathon Brooks, and Clemson’s Will Shipley.
Jaylen Wright, Tennessee – 2nd round
This year’s most explosive and dangerous runner and, in a league where speed is becoming currency, I’m planting my stake that he’s one of the best backs to get in April
Measurables: 5’11” 210 lbs
Explosive rush rate: 26% (1st)
Missed / broken tackle rate: 31% (5th)
% of yards after contact: 59% (14th)
We see how weapons like Jahmyr Gibbs, Keaton Mitchell, and De’Von Achane are impacting offenses and Jaylen Wright is the guy in this class that may be able to do the same. He doesn’t have the receiving resume as Gibbs, but he brings the same game-breaking ability in a slightly bigger build (5’11” 210 lbs) and, believe it or not, possibly a bit faster.
- Patient runner behind blocks with elite, video-game like acceleration that threatens to break any run
- Good contact balance and ability to slip tackles with one of the best missed tackle rates in the last two classes
- Receiving value is a projection, with only 34 career targets and only 6 in front of the line of scrimmage, but has the open-field ability
- Plus pass blocker, greatly improved in 2023
Wright was in a three-back rotation at Tennessee and registered dominant games against some of the best SEC run defenses: 11/120 vs Kentucky, 9/90 vs. UGA, and 19/136 vs. Texas A&M. And he routinely racked up big runs with runs of 82, 75, 52, and 42 this year.
Still under-the-radar as he just recently declared for the draft, I know I am way higher on him than consensus. But Jaylen could be special.
Trey Benson, Florida State – 3rd round
Benson is the most prototypical, all-round back in this class – a back that is good at everything but may not have the explosive upside as some others in this class
Measurables: 6’1″ 223 lbs
Explosive rush rate: 15% (12th)
Missed / broken tackle rate: 28% (9th)
% of yards after contact: 61% (13th)
With his blend of size, pass catching, and rushing value, he best fits the “prototypical back” label in this class. Teams will get a very solid back but probably not an explosive offensive weapon due to his good but not great elusiveness.
- Watching him, I liked him better as a pass-catcher than a rusher which isn’t a criticism of his rushing
- Very good in open space where he can get up to speed, doesn’t quite have the same short-area quickness and elusiveness as others
- Good contact balance and shows an ability to run through tackles
- Quick, he has hit 21+ mph five times this season
Bucky Irving, Oregon – 3rd round
Probably the most dangerous open-field runner in this class and his receiving upside makes him a perfect offensive weapon
Measurables: 5’10” 195 lbs
Explosive rush rate: 18% (4th)
Missed / broken tackle rate: 37% (2nd)
% of yards after contact: 62% (12th)
A smaller back but underrated ability.
- Playmaker in the open field where his speed and agility make him incredibly hard to bring down
- Ability to get to speed quickly, five times this season he has hit 21+ mph on a run, tied with Benson for best in the NCAA
- Rarely goes down easily despite his size, his 62% of yards after contact is usually only seen in bigger backs
- Reliable with 1 fumble in 461 career attempts
- Not a strong pass blocker
Audric Estime, Notre Dame – 3rd round
A big back whose running style is like the small, shifty guys – he has surprising speed and ability to generate big plays
Measurables: 5’11” 227 lbs
Explosive rush rate: 18% (3rd)
Missed / broken tackle rate: 29% (6th)
% of yards after contact: 67% (7th)
If Jaylen Wright and Bucky Irving bring the lightning, Audric may bring the entire storm. Don’t let people label him as just an old-school, bruising back with his size:
- His first cut agility and toughness to bring down make negative runs a rarity
- 67% of yards after contact is 2nd best in this class
- He runs like a smaller back, going around or (literally) over defenders
- 22 runs over 15 yards are most in this class and his 18% explosive rush rate is the highest you will see at his size
Later round options
Devin Neal, Kansas – 6th round
A guy I really like, adds value in the passing game and a very effective runner in space, but has limitations. He lacks top-end speed and while he can slip tackles, he goes down on first contact, you aren’t going to see him break many tackles.
UPDATE: Devin just announced after this published that he is returning to Kansas in 2024
Isaiah Davis, South Dakota State – 7th round
Racked up big numbers with 23% of attempts going over 10 yards and has some attractive traits but he also was able to feast on lesser competition. His on-field speed and short-area quickness doesn’t pop consistently.
Thoughts on other top prospects
Marshawn Lloyd, USC
Exciting traits with an 21% explosive rush and 41% missed tackle forced rates with one giant “but”… he has a really concerning 8 career fumbles including 3 in 2023 (2.8% fumble rate). Like DeWayne McBride last draft, I’ll never put guys with a multi-year fumble history on a draftable list.
Braelon Allen, Wisconsin
Expected to be one of the top handful of running backs drafted, he, like Marshawn, has a concerning fumble history with 4 in 2023 and 9 in his career. Another bigger back, he differs from Audric as you won’t see the same explosiveness. One of the youngest guys in this class at only 19 years old, you are banking on continued growth.
Blake Corum, Michigan
One of my favorite guys last year, he hasn’t been the same after the kneed injury – his explosive rush rate fell from 14% to 9% and his missed tackle rate collapsed from 29% to 10%. Add in that he will turn 24 during his rookie season and, unfortunately, he may have limited tread left.
Ray Davis, Kentucky
Will break some tackles but doesn’t have top end speed and his production was inconsistent, racking up a lot of his value against weaker run defense teams. Already 24, he will turn 25 during his rookie season.
Click here to see the data on the past NFL RBs and the 2024 RB prospects
To simplify the chart below, the top right quadrant is where you want to be, showing both an ability to force missed tackles and create explosive rushes. Only one RB – the Chiefs Isaiah Pacheco – is among top 20 backs that is an exception.
And here are the 2024 RB prospects on the same chart to show who may, or may not, perform:
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