Come April, we might as well assume that we hear a name like Amarius Mims coming to Philly as Lane’s future successor. Or Washington’s Bralen Trice, investing ahead of EDGE losses expected over the next couple of years. Or Michigan’s Kris Jenkins, adding another interior defender to keep the rotation going. Or some other linemen.
But somebody is coming.
In Howie’s tenure, only in 2020 and 2018 when they had emptied the cupboard to trade up for Wentz did the Eagles not take one or more linemen in the first two days of the draft. And, even then, in both years they still drafted three linemen on day 3.
And it’s working. So in a notoriously copycat league, why aren’t more teams doing the same thing?
Pittsburgh: Philly’s opposite in so many ways
I don’t mean opposite in a bad way. I lived in Pittsburgh for years, am married to a Pittsburgher, and it is an amazing city with a beautiful downtown.
But I got into a few conversations on draft philosophy and team building this week related to the two teams I follow closest – first, my hometown Eagles and, second, my wife’s Steelers. I’ve always said the easiest way to understand the Steelers draft philosophy was to do the exact opposite of the Eagles.
Between 2018-2022, the Steelers used their 1st round picks on a running back, linebacker, two safeties (including the Minkah trade), and a quarterback. In the 2nd round were three receivers and a tight end. This is absolutely unfathomable in Philly.
Over a 5-year period, no trenches at all until the 3rd round, using picks on OT Chuks Okorafor (benched), DT DeMarvin Leal, and IOL Kendrick Green (released).
The Steelers haven’t drafted the line and instead are overspending on it with the 4th highest cap commitment to the offensive line. Just to get the 26th best line in the league:
- Okorafor is the 13th highest paid RT in the league at almost $10M AAV, is sitting behind Dan Moore who is giving up a 7% pressure rate, and Okorafor would be, at best, a backup tackle on a good team
- Both guards – James Daniels and ex-Eagles Isaac Seumalo – at over $8M per year are 8th highest paid at their positions, good players but overpaid
- Mason Cole is the 12th highest paid center at $6M just to give up the 4th most pressures
And this is what it gets them every week, around 40% of dropbacks…
The Steelers have now (rightly) fired OC Matt Canada and are left wondering well into his second season what they have in Kenny Pickett.
Kenny isn’t playing well but he isn’t even given a chance. And their prize 1st round running back Najee Harris – a good player but a premium pick that should have been used on Creed Humphrey or Landon Dickerson – is being outplayed by UDFA Jaylen Warren.
The Steelers brought in ex-Eagles front office man Andy Weidl as Assistant GM last year and with using two picks in the top 49 on the lines (OT Broderick Jones and DT Keeanu Benton), it looks like they are shifting draft philosophy.
I posted a mock this week that come April, if I were the Steelers, I’d do my best Howie impersonation, camp out in Athens, GA and when asked who I liked, respond “All of them”. And then take OT Amarius Mims and C Sedrick Van Pran.
If I was a GM and had a young QB, I’d draft offensive line and receivers until I either got fired or had a top 10 offense.
The trenches and winning…
This isn’t to pick on the Steelers as they aren’t alone. The Commanders, Titans, Cardinals, Rams, and Jets are just some of the teams that have terribly ignored or missed on building the lines.
Does it matter? Yep.
If you look at the top teams in the league, they almost all have top lines.
| Team | Trenches Grade | Trenches Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 77.2 | 1 | 90% |
| Lions | 74.3 | 4 | 80% |
| Ravens | 73.6 | 5 | 73% |
| Browns | 75.3 | 2 | 70% |
| Cowboys | 74.5 | 3 | 70% |
| Jaguars | 61.7 | 27 | 70% |
| Chiefs | 65.8 | 18 | 70% |
| Dolphins | 72.6 | 6 | 70% |
| 49ers | 70.7 | 8 | 70% |
Of the 9 teams that have a 70% or better win percentage, 7 have top 10 lines. The two other top-10 graded lines are the Bills (6-5) and Raiders (5-6). The only non-top 10 teams on the list are the Pat Mahomes-led Chiefs and the Jaguars.
…and losing
On the other end, there are 13 teams with a 40% or worse win percentage and the majority are bottom-of-the-league lines:
| Team | Trenches Grade | Trenches Rank | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 68.2 | 13 | 40% |
| Packers | 69.0 | 11 | 40% |
| Chargers | 64.3 | 22 | 40% |
| Rams | 64.4 | 21 | 40% |
| Jets | 64.1 | 23 | 40% |
| Buccaneers | 67.8 | 14 | 40% |
| Commanders | 68.8 | 12 | 36% |
| Titans | 62.7 | 25 | 30% |
| Bears | 57.7 | 30 | 27% |
| Giants | 54.6 | 32 | 27% |
| Patriots | 58.9 | 28 | 20% |
| Cardinals | 58.2 | 29 | 18% |
| Panthers | 57.2 | 31 | 10% |
9 of the bottom 13 teams in the league have 20th ranked or lower lines.
A lot goes into winning and my point isn’t that if teams just draft lines, they are headed to the Super Bowl. Teams still need to pick the right players and develop them – nobody has used more top picks on the lines than the Giants but they have nothing to show for it.
But aside from having a good quarterback, nothing is more highly related to winning than the lines. And it makes sense.
While it varies greatly across QBs, EPA averages around 0.5 lower per dropback when under pressure, completion percentage is 7% lower, and passer rating is 10 points lower.
The top running backs in the league in yards gained BEFORE first contact? You will see the Eagles, Lions, and Bills – all top run blocking teams – at the top with backs averaging around 2 yards before first contact.
On the defensive side, the inverse goes… top defensive lines smother rushing and cause havoc for the QB.
Yes, it happens to all of us and we will have to remember it again this April when “our guy” is sitting there on the board and Howie grabs another guard or defensive tackle. But he’s right and it shows over the long-run.
Every time I talk about the Eagles offensive line, I get “but we have Stoutland”. And we do. But we also have three high picks anchoring our line and 10 picks used in the past 7 years. And on the defensive side, we have 15 draft picks, 5 of them day 1 or day 2 picks, in the same period.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and your families. Thanks for reading and if you aren’t already, please follow us at @PhillyCvrCorner, @PhillyEagleNews, and @GregHartPA