There were two throws against Dallas that really stuck with me.
First, on the opening drive, the Eagles show their aggressiveness, going for it on 4th down for the second time on that drive. On 4th and 3 at the Dallas 27 – well within Jake Elliott‘s range – Jalen Hurts with DeVonta separating at the sticks instead hits Dallas Goedert on a 12-yard pass for a toe-tap conversion on the sideline.
Later, with the Eagles down 3 to the Cowboys after the half, Philly came out in the 3rd quarter and methodically drove to the Dallas 29 yardline. This time Hurts stood in the pocket on 1st down and put a perfect, un-defendable pass to DeVonta Smith against the sideline in the endzone to put the Eagles ahead for good.
Sitting there, eating Tums like most of Philly, I couldn’t wait to look at the advanced stats on these two passes because I knew both would stand out. And they did.
Goedert’s potentially game-changing 4th down reception
EPA +3.117 and CPOE +52.5%
The pass to Goedert was Hurts’ 6th most valuable non-scoring throw as measured by EPA this season (touchdowns will almost always have a higher EPA than non-scoring plays because they, well, score). And as great as advanced stats are, EPA doesn’t really capture the importance of that play.
Either the Eagles convert and continue a drive (which led to a touchdown on the next play) or squander an opportunity and hand the ball back to their primary divisional threat. In a game we knew was going to be a dogfight, we saw what missed opportunities meant as the Cowboys failing to convert at the goaline probably lost them the game.
And, more importantly, this play shows the confidence that Sirianni has in the team, going against what we all hear every commentator say about “you gotta take the points here”. Small advantages make a difference over the season and the Eagles aggressiveness is winning them games.
DeVonta’s improbable touchdown reception
EPA +2.699 and CPOE +69.5%
Once I saw this throw, I knew this was going to have a really low expected completion, and it did. Depending on which stat you like, this pass had between a 17% expected completion rate (NextGen stats) and 30% (CPOE). NextGen’s stat uses tracking data above publicly available data, probably making it more accurate.
Regardless, this pass was really unlikely to be completed. It was the highest CPOE pass of that game and 6th best in week 9. In fact, out of over 10,000 passes this season, this throw had the 76th best completion percentage over expected.
Then I took a deeper look into Hurts…
I knew both of these passes in particular were going to stand out in the Dallas game. But I also knew these aren’t outliers for Hurts, especially this season.
Hurts has the highest rate of top 1 percentile CPOE passes since 2000
I started digging into this year and found Hurts has the most top 1 percentile CPOE passes this year with 10 at the midpoint. Sam Howell is next closest with only 6. And last year, only Josh Allen had more with 12 but did so in twice as many pass attempts.
Then I went back to 2015 and, same, Hurts has the top rate. And then I went back to 2000 and, yep, Hurts at 2.4% has the highest percentage of top CPOE throws of any QB with at least 700 career pass attempts.
And the gap between him and the rest of the crowd is sizable as shown above.
Hurts is on pace to be one of the best ever at “important” throws
And if you look at the “most important” throws, the ones that are both highly valuable and have a tough expected completion rate – like the two from the Dallas game above – Hurts is on pace to be one of the best ever.
Below shows the top 20 QBs on how passes they have that were both top 5th percentile EPA and top 5th percentile CPOE completions (limited to QBs with at least 2,000 career attempts except I included Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Tua Tagovailoa to show their current pace). Hurts is second to Russ with 4.21% of his throws being important throws.
| Rank | QB | Attempts | Top EPA+CPOE Percentile Passes | Top EPA+CPOE Percentile Pass Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R.Wilson | 5643 | 268 | 4.75% |
| 2 | J.Hurts | 1379 | 58 | 4.21% |
| 3 | A.Rodgers | 8182 | 312 | 3.81% |
| 4 | P.Rivers | 8240 | 288 | 3.50% |
| 5 | T.Romo | 4419 | 142 | 3.21% |
| 6 | J.Cutler | 4900 | 157 | 3.20% |
| 7 | N.Foles | 2241 | 71 | 3.17% |
| 8 | J.Allen | 3036 | 94 | 3.10% |
| 9 | A.Luck | 3554 | 109 | 3.07% |
| 10 | L.Jackson | 1960 | 60 | 3.06% |
| 11 | D.Watson | 2106 | 63 | 2.99% |
| 12 | P.Manning | 5676 | 169 | 2.98% |
| 13 | B.Roethlisberger | 8392 | 248 | 2.96% |
| 14 | K.Cousins | 5170 | 151 | 2.92% |
| 15 | P.Mahomes | 3677 | 106 | 2.88% |
| 16 | D.Prescott | 3688 | 104 | 2.82% |
| 17 | J.Winston | 2790 | 78 | 2.80% |
| 18 | C.Palmer | 5373 | 150 | 2.79% |
| 19 | T.Tagovailoa | 1340 | 37 | 2.76% |
| 20 | J.Herbert | 2224 | 61 | 2.74% |
It’s amazing not only how far Hurts has come, but the confidence the team and all of us have in him.
Another play that stuck out in the Dallas game was in their second-to-last drive of the game when a lot of us thought they were just going to burn 6 minutes off the clock and end the game. On 3rd and 3, Hurts attempted a 23 yard pass to A.J. Brown that was off target, forcing the Eagles to punt and give the ball back to Dallas in what could have been their winning drive.
We all criticized that pass attempt – myself included. And at that point in the game, a pass with a 40% expected completion percentage wasn’t the right play. But Hurts hits these passes at a really high rate and, in aggregate, the Eagles are better off for it.