For my own mental health, I generally resist tweeting during a game but after an impressive opening drive against Miami, their three same-old-same-old play calls once they reached the red zone got me:
After the Hurts run vs. a heavy box for -2 yards, it was Gainwell (of course) for a yard and a designed Hurts draw on 3rd down from the 9 yard line. And the Eagles had to settle for a field goal again…
But this may have marked the low point for this red zone offense.
On their next four red zone drives, the Eagles scored four touchdowns, making week 7 their best red zone showing of the season. And maybe it began to answer the biggest question with the “if this team can put together a complete game…” pondering.
How bad has the Eagles red zone offense been?
Excluding end of game kneels, in 26 red zone drives this season, the Eagles have settled for a field goal attempt 10 times and scored a touchdown 14 times (with twice turning over on downs). Scoring only 63% of possible points, this is their lowest red zone success rate since at least 2015 and good for 20th in the league this year.
Even their 2020 team – a bottom four offense with Jack Driscoll, Nate Herbig, and Matt Pryor collectively starting 36 games on the line – was more successful in the red zone than this team.
Their two Super Bowl teams? Those teams made the most of their red zone trips, finishing top 3 in the league and scoring well above 70% of total possible points.
So, yeah, your eyes aren’t lying, the 2023 Eagles red zone offense has been bad. And it, along with more turnovers, is the primary reason every game has felt like such an effort to win.
Red zone predictability
The Eagles have been one of the most predictable play calling teams within the red zone this season.
The below shows for both red zone and non-red zone plays, how often teams pass when they are expected to pass (expected pass over 60%) and run when the are expected to run (expected pass less than 40%). Circle size is red zone success rate (larger circle is higher success).
Behind only the Browns and Colts, the Eagles are one of the teams that are most predictable (run in run situations, pass in pass situations) inside the red zone.
This Eagles team has been great taking what the defense gives it, but for some reason, this changes inside the 20.
Conceding, low success rate runs
Another “obvious to all of us” part of their red zone offense is running in really inexplicable situations. In the first drive against Miami, Hurts ran on 3rd and goal from the 9… right after Gainwell went for 1 yard on 2nd and 10.
Six times the Eagles have rushed on 3rd down with 8 or more yards to go with four of these being from inside the 10 yard line, basically conceding to take the field goal.
The Eagles rush in obvious passing situations in the red zone at the 8th highest rate in the league. Below shows how many times teams have rushed in obvious passing situations vs. their red zone scoring rate (an aside, but what the heck are the Giants doing this year…?).
Personnel choices and execution
Another thing that is obvious – designed Hurts runs and too much Gainwell, both of which have really been struggling this year.
The Eagles, who run the ball on 71% of red zone plays, primarily use Hurts and Gainwell inside the 20. I’m not quite as negative on Gainwell as most – last year he had a 41% success rate in the red zone and should have some positive reversion. But still, yeah, use D’Andre Swift more here as he is just a different level of rusher.
| Non-Red Zone | Red Zone | ||||||
| Rusher | Attempts | Success Rate | Avg Yds | League Rank Success Rate | Attempts | Success Rate | Avg Yds |
| D.Swift | 86 | 48.8% | 5.5 | 8 | 15 | 66.7% | 3.0 |
| J.Hurts | 49 | 61.2% | 4.8 | 12 | 25 | 36.0% | 1.6 |
| K.Gainwell | 33 | 36.4% | 3.7 | 68 | 16 | 18.8% | 2.2 |
| B.Scott | 3 | 33.3% | 7.4 | n/a | 1 | 0.0% | -7.0 |
Hurts’ numbers are worse than they appear and a bigger issue – take out the four Brotherly Shove touchdowns and Hurts has a 25% success rate and is averaging only 1.9 yards per run vs. a 68% success rate and 4.3 yard average last season. Maybe its partly due to his injury, but if that is the case, even more reason to choose differently (Swift).
On the passing side, there was early outrage on a Stoll target, but the issue is simply more on execution and lack of passing:
- Pass on only 29% of red zone plays – 20th in the NFL
- 50% red zone completion rate (13 of 26) – 20th in NFL
- 36% success rate – 19th in NFL
- -0.013 EPA/pass – 24th in NFL
Did their red zone offense turn a corner against Miami?
After the infuriating first drive with three straight runs, two into a heavy box, the Eagles looked like a totally different team on their next red zone drives.
Drive 2: D’Andre Swift dances around for 1 from the 20, then with Miami sending seven rushers, a screen to Dallas Goedert goes for 19 yards and a touchdown.
Drive 3: This was the reversed A.J. Brown touchdown where the Eagles were spotted on the 1 and Hurts pushed it in.
Drive 4: From the 14, Eagles throw on 1st down with a 5-yard pass to A.J. which he scores on after making two Dolphins miss tackles.
Drive 5: Starting from the 8, Gainwell with back to back runs for a touchdown.
It’s only a few drives, but Brian Johnson and the Eagles used more passing, no designed Hurts runs, and Gainwell had a couple good runs.
This roster is too good to stay one of the worst teams in the league in the red zone. Things that make no sense to be this bad rarely stay this bad through a full season – hopefully the improvements seen in the Miami game are here to stay.
Go Birds!
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All the play calling sucks, big time! We played to lose against Dallas, running the ball up the gut three times in a row when they had 3 timeouts left – DUH! How about trying to get a first down and win the game! Watching tonight vs the Chiefs, no adjustments at all for the pressure they’re bringing, where is the screen? The quick out? Line someone up in the slot and USE him! Hurts keeps dropping back waiting to something to develop down field and getting massive pressure.
Thanks for the comment. I am more positive on the play calling in total, but there are definitely times things don’t make sense. For me, when they are running the clock out, sometimes they have to throw – I get not wanting to stop the clock but I trust Jalen and team enough to convert there more often than not.