It’s nice that we aren’t wondering if we have a franchise QB or not, wanting to trade everything for a declining Russ, or talking ourselves into Reagor finally being the guy… This year Eagles Twitter’s (myself included) biggest complaint is who the punter will be.
When the punter is your worry, the Eagles are in good shape.
This is the 4th season I have used a pre-season win projection model and the first year that I have (1) felt very consensus and (2) not loved the line with it at 11.5. But I have the Eagles modeled slightly worse than last year at just over 12 wins.
AV win projection model
I use an aggregated player Approximate Value (AV) model and it has either been lucky or good (or some of both) the past three seasons:
| Season | Vegas Line Wins | AV Model Predicted Win Total | Actual Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 9.5 | 4.1 (Under) | 4-11-1 |
| 2021 | 6.5 | 8.9 (Over) | 9-8-0 |
| 2022 | 9.5 | 10.7 (Over) | 14-3-0 |
I won’t go into too much detail on the model here but the key points are:
- Individual player value will vary year-to-year, but aggregating a team’s player value has a strong correlation to wins
- There are value ramps for young players and declines for older players (decay of play and injuries) which get modeled in
- Strength of schedule and “luck” adjustments are added in
Click to see a summary of prior year’s models
2020 – an aging roster and offseason loss of value
The 2020 Eagles were still coming off good years and had their apparent franchise QB, but the model had a lot of injury risk due to the players they had who all had a history of missing time and the age of the roster. Additionally, they lost more than they gained in the offseason with Malcolm, Agholor, and Darby leaving. I had Wentz providing way more value than his disastrous season actually delivered but the injury and age risk hurt pulled down the forecast a lot.
2021 – the value of a projected offensive weapon, Hurts’ floor, and a recovery in health
Expectations were rock bottom for the 2021 Eagles but Hurts had a really solid value value floor due to rushing value, the OL was going to be healthier after a disastrous 2020, and the addition of DeVonta added good value. Not much new value was modeled in for the defense but a younger roster projected more value and all this totaled a decent season and definitely better than the consensus.
2022 – young players grow and improving the roster at key positions
Expectations were much higher last season and I felt like a pessimist pre-season with them at around 11 wins, which turned out to be low, but I ended my summary with “But I can’t see the Eagles not winning the NFC East right now.” Adding A.J. Brown and C.J.G.J added good value at their two really weak areas, Bradberry was a plus, and young players like DeVonta and Hurts were projected to increase in value.
If you are interested in the detail behind the model and previous posts, you can find them here:
12.5 Wins for the 2023 Eagles
Expectations are again high and this is the first year where I am really close to the consensus line, but I think consensus is right.
They have arguably the deepest roster in the league
In a salary cap and free agency league that makes teams pick where they will be strong and weak, the Eagles are strong at most units and comically deep on the lines. Yes, linebacker remains an issue with little or no depth and so much comes down to Nakobe Dean and Zach Cunningham playing well and staying healthy. Yes there are weaknesses, but no team has a perfect roster and the Eagles are strong at most positions and definitely at the most important positions.
Hurts provides almost immeasurable value
Last year I said the thing to watch was Hurts’ efficiency throwing in the high volume 1-10 yard range. He greatly improved there but also was one of the best deep passers in the league. His mobility makes teams play 11-on-11 and makes the running backs better – they had one of the best rushing attacks in 20 years last season. And he was one of the most clutch QBs in the league, 3rd in the league in percentage of possible points scored and 2nd in explosive play rate at the end of halfs.
Their personnel changes are more upgrades than not
I try to not be overly optimistic on offseason adds and look to historical data to balance the view as it is easy to see the positives and ignore the negatives. It is really hard to keep a good team together but the Eagles not only largely did that, but in aggregate may have upgraded. Here are the key moves:
- Javon Hargrave to Jalen Carter – This is the biggest loss from an on-the-field perspective, but it was the right thing from a contract angle. As excited as I am for Carter, it is a lot to expect a rookie to replace Hargrave’s production as few rookies have done so. He could though. And because the Eagles have multiple pass rush threats, it makes it easier for Carter.
- CJGJ / Epps to Reed / Edmunds / Sydney Brown – CGJG was great for us and it would have been nice to have him back. But so much of CJGJ’s value came from turnovers which are notoriously unstable and he missed 10 games over the past two seasons. The Eagles drafted Sydney and signed Edmunds, and Reed showed what he can do – the Eagles likely upgraded here and they actually model an improvement here.
- Miles Sanders to D’Andre Swift / Rashaad Penny – Miles was very good for us and had his best season in 2022. But Swift and Penny both generate more yards after contact and more missed tackles. And Swift is a receiving upgrade. While efficiency is lower throwing to RBs than WRs no matter how good the back is, the Eagles needed to improve here and did.
- Seumalo to Cam Jurgens – Isaac was another that would have been good to keep but they couldn’t prioritize his contract. With high draft picks the past two years on the interior, you have to trust this won’t be a downgrade.
- Gannon to Desai – Not all upgrades are on the field and I cannot forget Desai. I wasn’t as negative on Gannon as most but he clearly had weaknesses that got exposed. If Desai brings more route disruption, concealment in coverage and pass rush, and aggressiveness, you should expect an improvement here.
The risks: injuries and a tougher schedule
I always have a list of what could go wrong as there are countless things. But I’m pressed to find big question marks outside of normal risks. If they suffer injuries at key positions it will hurt – they were the 3rd healthiest team last season and 5th healthiest over the past two and that won’t keep up.
The difficulty of their schedule is overrated, it is middle of the league but last year they had one of the easier schedules, so it is right to project an extra game or two they lose this year.
At just over 12 wins, I almost feel more pessimistic than the consensus and if I did bet (I don’t), I don’t love the Eagles win line at 11.5. But I’m going with the model again – it will eventually be wrong, maybe this year as the league is so difficult, but it is hard to find concerns.
At least once they find their punter.
Fly Eagles fly!
Thanks for reading and make sure to follow us at @PHLEagleNews, @greghartpa, and @PhillyCvrCorner
Great analysis thank you guys for this ! The sample is pretty small but it seems accurate. Did you do it for the rest of the league to see if it holds up well ?
Hey Thomas, thanks! I did it for the entire league a couple of years ago, last year was select teams and this year just the Eagles and have played with a few other teams but not formalized. It is actually a pretty laborious process to get rosters set and value adjustments. When I did the whole league, it turned out decent with some wins (I had the Eagles picking 13, 15, and 18 that year with the MIA, NO, and their own pick) and misses (had ARI at 4.9 wins but think I was early on that more than wrong, had DAL lower as I expected worse from Dak post leg injury, and PIT as they outperformed in close games). Here are the 2021 projections.
https://phillycovercorner.com/2021/09/2021-win-predictions-afc/
https://phillycovercorner.com/2021/09/2021-win-projections-nfc/
One team I really like this year is ATL – may not win the south but they have so much going for them – added way more than they lost in the offseason, I am a Ridder fan, suffered from terrible play-calling, and lot of youth to project with an uptick.
So I have a question about your 2020 season prediction – why was your model so down on the Eagles (correctly) vs consensus that season?
Hey Ben, apologies for the delay, I didn’t get an email notification on this comment. I did include a small blurb on it in an expandable section above but will give more detail here:
– 8 players had age adjustments (Kelce, Lane, Desean, Alshon, Ertz, BG, Fletch, Slay, and McLeod). There is a historical drop off at certain age tiers due to either lower production or injury. Not all will see a drop off but the model penalizes older rosters a bit
– Adding on to that, starters that have been injured in the past (Desean, Alshon, and Lane in 2019) carry a lower value
– I had Wentz modeled still strong and he obviously blew up in 2020 so was off on that but the above
– Their OL modeled pretty low on value – even though we were so optimistic on Mailata, it was his first time starting and they lost Brooks prior to the season.
– Comparatively, only a handful of players modeled with high value – Wentz, Kelce, Miles, Barnett (yeah, I know), Fletch and Jenkins (although safeties never model with a lot of value)
Hope this helps. It surprised me, but it is a year where a lot of age/injury risk played out. I have had other teams where it didn’t.