Super Bowl 57
In Super Bowl 57, Mahomes’ passing numbers were 21-of-27 for 182 yards. His longest completion of the night was for 22 yards, and that came in the first quarter.
Patrick only attempted one pass for 20 or more yards, and that fell incomplete.
What Mahomes was good at, was extending plays by moving in and out of the pocket, despite playing with a sprained ankle.
To those observing the game during the first half, it appeared as if Mahomes and the Chiefs were struggling, but what they were dealing with was a lack of opportunities.
The Eagle’s defense and their feared pass rush were struggling.
Mahomes was pressured on 35.5% of his dropbacks.
This number was higher than their season average of 32.1%, and playing against a quarterback like Mahomes, it shouldn’t have been.
The Eagles generated their historic sack numbers, in part, to playing against many QBs who do not get rid of the ball quickly.
During the regular season, the Eagles sacked the QB 33.3% of the time when applying pressure. That number was almost 5% higher than the second-place team.
The Birds sent pressure 10 times in the Super Bowl. By their league-average stats, that should have resulted in 3 sacks.
They had zero!
Mahomes is the best in the NFL at avoiding sacks while being pressured.
Since he came into the league, he has only been sacked 11.2% of the time he is pressured.
Nobody else in the league is under 15% during this same timeframe.
So while the Chiefs did lack opportunities in the first half, Andy Reid and company still made adjustments to the passing game, despite Mahomes not having taken a sack.
Mahomes averaged getting rid of the ball in 2.93 seconds in the first half.
He lowered that to 2.46 seconds in the second.
Hindsight is 20–20, but maybe Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon shouldn’t have challenged the best QB in the league at handling pressure, by sending more pressure.
But I digress.
vs. Wentz
When the sacks are coming in bunches, look no further than the QB that the defense is sacking!
The Eagles sacked Carson Wentz nine times in a single game during the season. Sacking Wentz accounted for 12% of their sacks on the season for all 18 games in just 4 quarters.
The defense accomplished this by totaling 7 of those 9 sacks without sending pressure. That tied for the most sacks during the regular season while only utilizing a 4 man front since 2020.
In the first half, Carson lost 40 yards on 6 sacks. He only had 24 passing yards completing 3 of 10 attempts. He went into halftime with a net loss of 16 yards. And losing 24–0.
He was sacked 2 more times in the second half, losing an additional 18 yards.
So, in short, sending pressure vs Wentz is good (and most of the time not even necessary), while pressuring Mahomes equals bad.
Oftentimes, a sack is as much a QB stat as it is a pass rushers.
Stats, the more you know!
Individual and team sacks are fun stats, and they have been since the league started keeping track of them in 1982, but they should not be the barometer by which a defense’s success is measured versus a QB.
The pressure rate generated is a much better indicator of the havoc a defensive player is causing. It is a less volatile stat and when used, tells the tale of a player’s improvement year over year as well.
Sacks above or below expectation is a great chart/stat to follow as well.
2016 Bandon Graham
The Eagles need to look no further than one of their own pressure rate leaders as to why judging a player by their sack totals isn’t reliable.
Brandon Graham finished the 2016 season with 5.5 sacks but was ranked the 9th-best player in football by PFF heading into the 2017 season.
Their ranking caused a lot of head-scratching, but PFF rated Graham on his more than just QB sacks. Despite ranking 18th in sacks amongst edge rushers, PFF based their evaluation on the totality of the disruption and pressure he was applying to the QB.
BG was 2nd overall with 83 pressures and only 3 behind the leader, Oliver Vernon, who had a whopping 156 more pass-rushing attempts.
Graham didn’t have any games where he recorded multiple sacks, but he had nine games where he was credited with 5 or more pressures.
In week 8 he had 11 pressures versus the Cowboys, who were thought by most to have the best offensive line in football that year.
So while his Super Bowl-winning breakout 2017 season, in which he had 9.5 sacks, seemed to surprise some. It was right on par with those paying attention to his 2016 pressure rate.
Nolan Smith
A lot of fans didn’t see the value of a player like Nolan Smith during the 2023 draft process due to him having lower sack totals than some of the other edge rushers.
But his pressure rates are elite, as was every athletic score outside of his height and weight.
There is a lot more to defensive players than looking at the stats on the back of a football card.
Explosion grade on the Relative Athletic Scoring system is usually what translates to power. A player’s vertical and broad, specifically.
When you look at Nolan’s above, and even 2023 7th-rd pick Moro Ojomo’s
and compare it to the Eagle’s first-round pick, Derek Barnett, in 2017
You will find that the Eagles’ believe in those as an indicator as well.
New Stats?
If the league wanted to include sacks as a real barometer for a defensive player’s value, there would need to be metrics broken down into at least 5 categories.
Examples:
A 5-point sack would be the best sack. This would be a 1 vs 1 win for a clean sack vs a high-quality opponent.
A 4-point sack, a 1–1 win vs an average to below avg lineman.
A 3-point sack. One where the scheme, or an error on the defense leaves the defender unblocked. Basically no skill or win vs a defender, just a free shot the player took advantage of. You still get credit for getting there, because it is very hard to get a mobile QB down, especially one who has check-downs. Free shot or not.
A 2-point sack is a coverage sack. Same as above, but the QB has fewer options and has to rely solely on his escapability to avoid the sack.
Lastly, the 1-point sack. A sack you get due to facing a QB who will not get rid of the ball. You get the sack, but the QB should and could have thrown the ball away, and should never have held onto the ball for 4+ seconds. Had they done either, the sack would never have happened.
It’s a little convoluted and or confusing for the casual fan.
I have seen dozens of fan sites use different metrics to calculate what they believe to be a true sack rate.
Something like what I laid out above, done by someone much smarter than me, should come up with an evaluation that gets widely accepted.
Until they do, the pressure rate is the best predictor of future success.
The below link is a great place to start if this is a subject you would like to learn more about.
https://trenchwarfare.substack.com
Stat Glossary:
ASR– adjusted sack rate
This stat goes one step further than the pressure rate and evaluates how often defenders actually get to the QB. And
PR– pressure rate and pressure rate %.
This describes how often a defender is able to get into the backfield and have an unabated path to the quarterback.
Per the sites that use this stat, plays in which a defender has no real chance to reach the QB (e.g. screens, RPOs, extremely quick passes) aren’t included as pass-rush opportunities. Removing those gives a better idea of which players are truly the best at pressuring and protecting the quarterback.
PRA– On the flip side, this is the lineman pressure-allowed rate.
This stat calculates an offensive lineman’s tendency to be beaten and allow a defender to get into the backfield and have an unobstructed path to the quarterback.
AS-A- Adjusted sacks allowed
This measures a lineman’s tendency to allow rushers to reach the passer.