This time of year, there is a lot of love for all of our guys. But as I’ve written before, a large percentage of the 1st round misses every year. Sometimes it’s out of their control with injuries or they are mis-used by their team. Maybe they were a projection that just didn’t develop. Some may have been older prospects that only succeeded because they were playing 18-19 year olds. And maybe they had risks ahead of the draft that were ignored.
Who could be misses this year and how should we think about risk – age, fit, projection, or other – with this year’s top-rated prospects?
How many 1st rounders are misses?
The charts below show the number of draft misses for the entire 1st round and top 10 picks (“misses” defined as a below 60th percentile player which is typically a top 55-65 player in the draft). The 1st round averages just over 11 misses and even 2018, the best year, had 8 misses.
And bad news for the Eagles, the hit rate isn’t much better at the top of the draft, averaging 2.6 top-10 picks being misses. 2013, the year the Eagles drafted Lane Johnson, was an especially bad year with only 3 good players taken and skews this a bit. But even with the past few years being good years, there are still 1-2 players in the top 10 that are misses every year.
Which positions have historically been the most difficult to hit on?
All positions aren’t created equally with cornerback at a 64% miss rate far and away being the position with the highest bust rate, followed by safety, pass rusher, and receiver. These, with the exception of safety, are also the most heavily drafted positions every year.
Interestingly, the less valued positions like TE, RB, and LB have better hit rates which is primarily because of how lightly they are drafted – if only 1 or 2 of a position is being taken in the 1st, you are drafting the top guys at that position instead of grabbing the 4th or 5th corner or receiver.
The misses are there this year… who could they be?
Below are the current projected 1st rounders using Grinding the Mocks and NFL Mock Draft Database rankings, which will be as accurate as they can be this close to the draft.
NFL Mock Draft Database rankings as of 4/3/23
Unless this is an all-time historically great class, there are 10-12 guys on this list that will be misses. Nobody knows who they will be and often misses are out of anybody’s control. But I’ll take my shot with reasoning and what we know about draft success.
If you are still reading, this is going to be the section that you likely hate. Heck, I hate it myself for putting a couple of names on the list below.
CB has the highest miss rate so I’ll start here:
Given the history with CBs, you could pick anybody here and do well with the odds.
- Kelee Ringo – An elite athlete straight-line, could his change of direction issues be a fatal flaw that is exposed by NFL receivers?
- Joey Porter Jr – Sure to anger a ton of people as we have a lot of PSU fans and there is a lot to like, but history isn’t great on 23 year olds at skill positions and in a world of more zone coverage, does he get asked to do what he isn’t great at?
- Cam Smith – Flashes the skills needed and has the mentality you want in a corner. But while he hasn’t missed much playing time, he has dealt with head injuries / concussions and a hamstring.
QBs are always good to pick as misses:
With QBs, you would be right more often than not just putting them all on a potential bust list.
- Will Levis – Not a controversial add here at all, he reminds me way too much of Carson Wentz with his pocket awareness and turnovers.
- Anthony Richardson – There is all the reason in the world to put AR on the list but I actually like him. He does some of the same very fixable things that cause accuracy issues and his mobility provides a really good value floor for teams. He’s a risk as every QB is but I would take the risk at the right pick.
On to defensive line:
- Bryan Bresee – Love the guy, I was just never wowed watching him. And a lot of misses are injury related and he has missed a lot of time.
- Myles Murphy – A guy I have never gotten they hype on, one of the lowest pressure rates, hasn’t tested, think there is quite a bit of risk here.
- Tyree Wilson – I absolutely LOVE Tyree, think he could be a menace in the NFL, and would draft him because of this upside. But there is risk here – he will be 23, was late breakout, and while extremely powerful, he lacks explosiveness.
Wide receivers:
Receiver is tough because when you look at past misses, there was usually some other reason (injuries, off-the-field, etc.).
- Quentin Johnston – People I respect have him as a likely bust but I am higher on him. He does disappear in games, but his agility for his size is crazy. I’d still take him but definitely a guy with a wider range of outcomes.
- Jordan Addison – Comped to DeVonta Smith (which I don’t see at all) and viewed as a low risk pick, but could physical, press coverage that frustrated him in college become a bigger issue in the NFL?
- Zay Flowers – I love Zay and with Tyree, another guy I would love to draft. But he will be 23 years old at the start of the season, is undersized, and has one of the lowest rates of NFL route usage (which is more correlated to NFL success than route diversity).
Tight ends:
TEs in the first round at all are rare and this year we have two projected, and it wouldn’t surprise many if a third went. I’ve probably pissed everybody off at this point, here’s where I anger my partner @PHLEagleNews:
- Dalton Kincaid – Kincaid is already 23, is really intriguing receiving but not sure he will survive inline which limits his usage. Daniel Kelly comps him to Dalton Schultz, a 4th rounder and 50th percentile player, which I think is a good comp.
Offensive line looks good:
I’m not picking anybody here. First, OL is one of the safest positions to draft and misses are usually injury related. Second, I like everybody on this list. There are some I wouldn’t take in the 1st but that is very different from being a miss. But if I had to pick here, it would be around playing one of these guys at the wrong position:
- Peter Skoronski – I am definitely in the “he’s a guard” camp – if that is correct, what if the drafting team leaves him at OT like a Teven Jenkins and he just doesn’t succeed there?
- Playing somebody out of position – What if somebody moves Anton to RT or Darnell Wright to LT and they struggle? I like these guys in the 1st but teams could mis-use them.
I’m not saying any or all of these names will be misses – several will be amazing pros. It’s just important to remember why players do miss and that some have a wider range of outcomes. Anthony Richardson could be so good or an absolute miss… teams know that and one of them will take a shot. Quentin Johnston and Tyree Wilson also fall into that category in my opinion.
I was writing this and coincidentally this tweet from @PickettsWrld (a great Steelers and draft account and overall good guy to follow) popped up which we all have to remember:
Just based on history, no matter how well teams scout, the misses are out there this year.
Thanks for reading and if you aren’t already, please follow us at @PhillyCvrCorner, @PhillyEagleNews, and @GregHartPA