To answer it, yes, we have absolutely become spoiled with the recent receiver classes. And we are probably overvaluing this class as it comes back to Earth (or in stats speak, it reverts to the mean…)
Every year, it is pretty consistent that there are right around 50 players in the draft that are “above average”. These are defined as 60th percentile or above players – players like Kyzir White, Courtland Sutton, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and Kenny Golladay. Teams always hope for the superstars with top picks, but these are players that are the minimum expectation of a top pick.
And receivers each draft have historically made up around five of these top 50 players. Until 2019.
The 2019-2022 receiver bull market
Over a 4-year period starting in 2019, teams feasted on receivers at the top of the draft. Since 2019, 28 receivers have been 60th percentile players with 17 of them being 80th percentile players.
We saw Justin Jefferson come out and smash the rookie receiving record which he got to hold for one year until Ja’Marr Chase broke it the next year. Add in DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, D.K. Metcalf, and on and on as top receivers that came into the league.
Below shows the top receivers drafted between 2019-2022 by their value:
And it was almost like fishing with hand grenades – of the 19 first rounders selected, 11 – or almost 60% – were 80th percentile or better with a few more that will probably get added to the list like Jameson Williams and Treylon Burks.
There were really only three busts – Henry Ruggs, N’Keal Harry, and unfortunately our own Jalen Reagor. It was really hard to miss on a WR recently.
The 2010-2018 receiver drafts weren’t nearly as good
This type of hit rate is unheard of. From 2010 to 2018, 32 receivers were taken in the 1st round with “only” 10 – or just over 30% – of them being 80th percentile players. This includes players like Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, Julio Jones, and OBJ.
And 15 of the 32 first rounders from 2010-2018 were complete misses – players like Kevin White and Josh Doctson and Justin Blackmon. This period saw half the superstar rate and almost three times the miss rate as the 2019-2022 period.
Where receivers historically have been around 5 of the top 50 players, they almost doubled that amount in recent years.
Will the 2023 class continue the bull market?
Below are the WRs in this class that all have expected draft positions (EDPs) within the top 100 two weeks before the draft:
| Player | EDP | Height | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 14 | 6005 | 196 |
| Quentin Johnston | 19 | 6026 | 208 |
| Jordan Addison | 22 | 5111 | 173 |
| Zay Flowers | 23 | 5092 | 182 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 37 | 6001 | 176 |
| Josh Downs | 44 | 5086 | 171 |
| Cedric Tillman | 64 | 6033 | 213 |
| Marvin Mims | 73 | 5107 | 183 |
| Rashee Rice | 74 | 6005 | 204 |
| Tyler Scott | 78 | 5097 | 177 |
| Tank Dell | 79 | 5083 | 165 |
| AT Perry | 88 | 6034 | 198 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 93 | 6016 | 220 |
I included their heights and weights because this is a small class – three are 5’9″ or below and five are below 180 pounds. There is a lot to like with Zay Flowers and Tank Dell and Josh Downs but they are outliers that don’t have a lot of NFL comps that have hit.
Below shows this – the first chart shows all receivers drafted by height and weight with the top 60th percentile players in red and players below 60th percentile in blue. The next chart shows only the top 60th percentile players.
Top receivers below 5’10” and 180 pounds are rare.
- Of 23 WRs under 5’10”, there is only 1 that is a top 60th percentile player – Baltimore’s Marquise Brown, drafted with the 25th pick in 2019 (84th percentile)
- Of 25 WRs 180 pounds or under, there are 7 receivers that are top 60th percentile – Marquise Brown again, DeVonta Smith, Emmanuel Sanders, Ted Ginn Jr., John Brown, DeSean Jackson, and Darnell Mooney
- On average, WRs under 5’10” are 32nd percentile players in the NFL
- WRs under 180 pounds are 38th percentile players on average
Below is the full breakdown of receivers by height and round since 2018, showing the number drafted and their NFL value percentile:
There is a clear dividing line at 5’10”. Shorter than that, few are drafted – 23 of 285, or 8% of all WRs drafted – and fewer actually succeed.
Conversely, almost a third (81 of 263) of WRs 5’10” or above are 60th percentile players or better. And drafting these receivers high has paid off – day 1 and day 2 receivers 5’10” or over have averaged 64th percentile in the NFL.
2023 may look more like the 2017 WR class
So back to the original question – have we become spoiled on receivers with the past few drafts? And what could 2023 look like?
My opinion? I think we are likely to see a return to a year like 2017. That year saw:
- A lighter receiver draft class at the top with only three taken in the 1st (Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross) and another three in the 2nd (Zay Jones, Curtis Samuel, Juju)
- 6 WRs in the top 50 players with half of them not being top drafted guys (Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, and Kenny Golladay)
- A greater number of shorter prospects in that class, with 3 players at 5’8″, none of which were top value players
It’s always risky predicting receiver may not be drafted heavily given the premium put on the position and rising free agency costs. And numbers like height and weight aren’t death sentences for players – it isn’t long ago many were saying DeVonta couldn’t survive in the NFL. But there is a reason there aren’t a lot of these outliers in the league.
There is so much to like on the guys in this class, but it is nowhere near the type of class we have seen recently and there are risks with each. We could all look back on these guys as “of course that pick didn’t work out because of…”:
- Addison is taller but slight and has had trouble with press
- Zay is smaller and catch radius shows up as an issue
- Downs and Dell are both really small and there isn’t a top player drafted the last 5 years their size that has done well, so you are expecting them to be a big outlier
- And a lot of the bigger guys like Tillman, Rice, and Mingo are interesting but have issues separating that could hold them back (I will forever remain scarred from JJAW on WRs that don’t separate)
- AT Perry, Tillman, Zay, and Rashee are all 23 years old and Dell will turn 24 during his rookie season – the history of 23 and over receivers isn’t great
Who would I take in this class?
There are always risks with any pick, but the range of outcomes is greater on more of these guys this year than in past years. Who do I like?
The top-10 worthy guy: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The only guy worthy of a top 10-pick in this class compared to past years. We are all going to look dumb passing on him when Wilson and Olave and Stroud all say he was the best receiver there…
The guy that will be the best from outside R1: Marvin Mims
Broke out young, has the size and speed, is tough, 2nd best YAC/rec in this class, a top-10 Y/RR. He’s a guy I would take much higher than where most have him and think he will be a top-32 player from this class. People think I’m crazy but he’s my WR2. Everybody posts the clip where he caught the pass off the CB’s back, but this is one of my favorites – his route crispness looks like JSN’s at times.
The forgotten guy: Tyler Scott
A guy not enough are talking about, he has borderline size but his speed and route running are great and could end up one of the best value picks if he does go R3. Continuing the theme, here’s a clip where he shows nasty route-running with a great outside fake to gain separation:
My risky-but-I-don’t-care pick: Quentin Johnston
One that I may regret… A lot of people I respect question Johnston and the comps to Kevin White are rampant. His agility numbers weren’t good but when I watch, I see surprising route cripsness for his size. He brings crazy YAC value and is good against zone. Even against UGA when he had a catch for 3 yards, I thought he looked much better than people gave him credit for (with Duggan under pressure a silly 55% of snaps):
We can set a reminder and check back to see how right or wrong all of this is – I’m sure I will be wrong somewhere. But it isn’t wise to totally ignore history on what translates to the NFL.
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