When you look back on the most frequently mocked players to the Eagles, it’s comically inaccurate year after year. And it’s happening again this year with Bijan and Jahmyr as two of the most frequently mocked round 1 players and recently, Brian Branch at 10 increasing with the ongoing CJGJ drama.
None of these picks are happening, not because they aren’t good players, but because they are awful surplus value decisions. And Howie understands this and is right about it.
I’ve spent so much time looking at both the Eagles and overall league draft trends and while Howie continues to evolve, his drafts make much more sense if you realize he:
- Invests for needs 1-2 years out, not the upcoming season
- Values draft capital and amount of picks, not only for the total amount but for the flexibility it provides in allowing a move up
- Doesn’t waver from his positional value – with 12 round 1 picks he has only taken OL, DL, WR, and QB. And his commitment to the trenches is real, averaging 1.1 players on the lines in rounds 1-3 and over 3 players on the lines each draft
Drafting for 1-2 years out
Below shows each draft since 2017 with the top players mocked to the Eagles, who they actually took with high picks (round 1-3), and which key players / starters they were projected to lose on offense and defense.
Besides 2020 when it was obvious Howie was taking a receiver, the top mocked players haven’t really been close. With 9 of the 23 top mocked players since 2017 being RBs and LBs, we should know better.
But look back at each draft and what they were expecting to lose in the next year or two:
2017 – DE as the emerging need
Eagles draft DE Derek Barnett ahead of likely losing two DEs the next year. Chris Long was on a 1-year deal and recently extended Vinny Curry was expected to be released in 2018 due to his deal structure. On day 2, Howie does draft for need with back-to-back CB picks, neither of which worked out in Philly.
2018 – Investing in 12 personnel and ahead of OT needs:
Another year where fans loved the RBs and, ironically, this was the one year Philly didn’t have a need at RB. We didn’t have major losses projected as Howie (mistakenly) kept the band together after the Super Bowl. They did release Brent Celek but with Zach Ertz, the pick of Dallas Goedert allowed Philly to run the highest amount of 12 personnel (36%, twice the league average). With day 3 picks, Howie takes two swings on an emerging need at tackle and invests again at DE with Josh Sweat.
2019 – Again investing ahead of needs at OT and WR
Howie gets ahead of a need when they moved up to take OT Andre Dillard: “We have a Hall of Fame left tackle (Jason Peters), and again, he’s got a great opportunity to come in and learn from Jason and at some point in time get an opportunity to play”. On day 2 Howie attempts to get ahead of WR needs with the JJ. Arcega-Whiteside pick and surprisingly takes RB Miles Sanders to fill a need.
2020 – WR as both an urgent and emerging need
The year everybody got the position right and Howie got the player wrong when they took WR Jalen Reagor. With JJAW a miss, WR is an immediate need as they were losing Nelson Agholor and knew both Alshon Jeffrey and Desean Jackson were likely to leave after the season. Armed with 10 total picks, Howie takes two additional WRs on day 3.
2021 – Attempt #3 at WR and investing in the line
DeVonta Smith was the third swing at WR as Reagor and JJAW were misses. And the Eagles begin thinking about life after Jason Kelce when they take Landon Dickerson.
2022 – Investing in the scheme and ahead of needs
Like RB, fans loved LBs in 2022 which Howie just doesn’t do. Jordan Davis was primarily giving the new coaching staff one of the missing pieces for the new defensive structure. But the Eagles were also preparing for one or both of Hargrave and Cox to leave over the next year. And with Brandon Brooks retiring and Landon moving over to LG, the Eagles again prepare for Kelce’s retirement with Cam Jurgens.
What are the upcoming needs ahead of the 2023 draft?
Free agency last week saw mocks swinging with every move the Eagles made. CB is by far the most mocked position to the Eagles this year, but when Bradberry re-signed, Twitter was full of “CB is no longer the pick at 10″… then news of Slay’s release and CB is back… and when Slay is un-released, CB is again removed.
The day-to-day swings of free agency week aren’t going to change Howie’s draft plans. But looking ahead to 2024 and 2025 probably helps more:
| Offense | Defense | |
| 2024 | OC Jason Kelce? WR Quez Watkins WR Greg Ward OG Sua Opeta | DT Fletcher Cox DE Brandon Graham DE Derek Barnett CB Darius Slay (release?) |
| 2025 | OG Landon Dickerson WR AJ Brown (restructure?) RB Kenneth Gainwell TE Jack Stoll | EDGE Haason Reddick DE Josh Sweat CB Avonte Maddox CB Zech McPhearson DT Milton Williams DT Marlon Tuipulotu |
What this means for the 2023 draft
1. DL is going to be their top priority, especially DE/EDGE:
They may currently need more bodies at DT, but EDGE is a bigger need over a 1-2 year period, especially when you consider how much more expensive it is in both free agency and the draft. Yes, they have Reddick, Sweat, BG, and Barnett. But next year, BG is aging and Barnett is a free agent. And in 2025, both Sweat and Reddick hit free agency.
2. Cornerback is still a need, but I don’t expect investment high:
I am not sure Howie was ever looking at the top end of the corner market this year, but we shouldn’t look at Bradberry and Slay staying or signing Greedy as impacting draft approach at all. Slay will likely be released in 2024, Greedy is on a one-year, and both Avonte and Zech are free agents in 2024. Howie has been collecting a ton of cheap-but-upside guys and I expect 2023 to be about seeing if one can emerge and adding a mid-round CB. Hope I’m wrong here as I’d love a top, young corner, but I just don’t think a CB at 10 was the most likely pick.
3. When Howie has need a starter on the OL, he drafts high :
Despite the Eagles being viewed as a heavy trenches team, historically they are below league average in OL investment, mostly because they have had the luxury of long-term, pro-Bowl level players for most of the past decade. But that is changing.
Recent investments in Landon and Cam filled the Brooks and Kelce projected vacancies, but now with Seumalo leaving, does Driscoll move to RG? And if he does, who is their swing tackle? Lane has missed 19 games over the past 4 seasons and there is no way Julian Good-Jones and Jarrid Williams will be the plan as first off the bench. Howie has filled in with lower picks but when he needs a starter, he uses a premium pick. Maybe they are comfortable with Driscoll and continue with lower picks for depth, but I’m not sure they commit to that.
4. WR is a sneaky need:
Howie has never gone back-to-back years without drafting a WR. Maybe last year counts as taking one with the A.J. Brown trade but regardless, Howie brought both JJAW and Reagor in a year ahead of planned departures. No position group on this team except QB has a bigger risk of drop-off with an injury than WR. And, WR3 could be upgraded today but will also be a need next year.
5. Expect one or more trade downs as this is back-to-back years with limited picks:
Most are expecting this so it isn’t a huge surprise. But a couple of points. First, with only 5 picks last year and 6 this year, this is the fewest number of picks Howie has had except 2018-19 when they depleted their picks for Wentz. And second, while he has two 1sts, he effectively only has 4 picks this year with the last two deep in the 200s. In 2018 when Howie traded out of the 1st, he explained his reasoning which has relevance this year:
“For the way we’re trying to build, it was important to get some more resources moving forward… We have options at our disposal, we won’t hesitate if we think the value is right to move up or move back again tomorrow.”
We can stop mocking Bijan Robinson or Brian Branch at 10 and Jahmyr Gibbs at 30