One of the questions I get most is “will the Eagles actually draft a corner high this year?”
I have no idea.
The Eagles’, and Howie’s, history on the cornerback position is something I’ve thought about a ton. It’s not simple like the positional value he puts on the lines (high) or running backs and linebackers (low) where he is very open about his philosophy and does exactly what he says. Corner is different.
So here I’m going to dig into their history and try to get inside Howie’s mind.
The Eagles don’t draft corners
We all know they haven’t. No matter how you look at it, the Eagles rank near the bottom of the league in drafting corners.
- 22nd in the league draft capital used over Howie’s tenure, 32nd over the past 5 years and 31st over the past 3
- 13th in number of picks used on CBs since 2010, but still 30th in picks used over the past 5 years
Only twice since 2010 have the Eagles used more draft capital than league average and one of those years was 2015 when Chip Kelly was GM. The only “Howie year”, and the only time they actually went after corners in the draft, was 2017 when he doubled up with Sidney Jones in the 2nd and Rasul Douglas in the 3rd.
Now the real question is why…
I asked @TheHonestNFL if Howie didn’t draft CBs for some reason and he pointed more towards how past boards have fallen, not a philosophy on not drafting them.
More on this in a minute…
And when they do draft CBs, they haven’t been good
Of the 13 picks (10 of which were Howie’s), Avonte Maddox and Jalen Mills are the only two corners you would say were even good picks. Rasul probably deserves to be included, but was misused here and most of his good playing time was outside of Philly.
The only time Howie used a high pick was obviously Sidney Jones when his pre-draft Achilles injury made him look like a great value in the 2nd. Here is Howie’s explanation of the pick:
“Sidney Jones, when we started this process, was one of the guys that we were talking about with the 14th pick in the draft in our first stack of players.As we looked at it, great character, great player. Obviously, the injury is a factor here.”
Ignore the results, it is the thinking and philosophy on the position that matters and shows Howie does view it as a round 1 position.
Corner is the hardest position to draft
In Howie’s defense, corner is tough.
I’ve written several times on this before – CB has the highest bust rate in round 1 of any position, including QB. And in a bit of “damned if you do, damned if you don’t”, it is also the position where you have to take it high – it has one of the lowest hit rates later in the draft.
Below shows the hit and miss rates for each position for the first two rounds:
There’s no way Howie doesn’t know this. I’ve wondered if this is part of his calculus in valuing CB (and hesitancy in taking CBs high) in the draft. We can’t get in his head and I have never seen him actually speak to this, but if you take what TheHonestNFL says above, it could really be that they just haven’t had a corner as BPA at their picks.
It’s hard to go back and say Howie should have done anything different
With the benefit of hindsight, should Howie have addressed corner in the draft these past 5 years? Below are the Eagles round 1 and 2 picks over the past 5 years with the next available corners:
| Year | Round 1 | Round 2 |
| 2022 | 13 – Jordan Davis 21 – Trent McDuffie 23 – Kaiir Elam | 51 – Cam Jurgens 60 – Cam Taylor-Britt |
| 2021 | 10 – DeVonta Smith 22 – Caleb Farley 26 – Greg Newsome II | 37 – Landon Dickerson 40 – Richie Grant 44 – Kelvin Joseph 47 – Asante Samuel Jr. |
| 2020 | 21 – Jalen Reagor 30 – Noah Igbinoghene 31 – Jeff Gladney | 53 – Jalen Hurts 61 – Kristian Fulton |
| 2019 | 22- Andre Dillard 30 – Deandre Baker | 53 – Miles Sanders 57 – JJ Arcega Whiteside 79 – David Long 83 – Justin Layne |
| 2018 | None | 49 – Dallas Goedert 53 – M.J. Stewart 55 – Donte Jackson |
| 2017 | 14 – Derek Barnett 16 – Marlon Humphrey 18 – Adoree’ Jackson | 43 – Sidney Jones |
The past 3 years, Howie was absolutely targeting Jordan Davis and wide receivers so it probably doesn’t matter which CB was available. But even then, it’s hard to say Howie missed on anybody. I loved McDuffie last year but they needed Davis. The only pick in the past 5 years you would go back and take is Marlon Humphrey over Derek Barnett. But at the time, this wasn’t an egregious miss-pick.
Looking at the 2nd round picks, it’s the same story. Asante, Donte Jackson, and Cam Taylor-Britt would have been nice picks but not over who Howie took.
The corners that teams would really want in these prior classes are (1) a small list of names and (2) almost all went ahead of the Eagles picks. Sauce and Stingley, Surtain and Horn, Denzel Ward and Jaire Alexander, Marshon Lattimore. The list of 80th percentile corners since 2017 taken after round 1? It’s one name – Tariq Woolen.
But they also don’t ignore cornerback
Unlike linebacker, running back, and safety (although that may be changing), the Eagles do invest in cornerback. It is, however, usually through free agency and trades. And this has been even more true recently:
Howie has not signed at the top end of free agency
This is true for Howie at all positions really. The only time he made a splash was the disastrous signing of Nnamdi early in his GM career… apparently never to be repeated.
He has depended on one-year deals lately
For the past 3 years, and again in 2023, Howie has depended upon finding a new starting corner and done so on a one-year deal, Sometimes this worked (Bradberry and Nelson) and sometimes it hasn’t (Robey-Coleman).
He brings in a LOT of guys
Another thing that sticks out is Howie acquires a ton of guys hoping one hits. Since 2016, he is averaging near 5 CBs a year with a lot of “cheap but upside” guys like Tay, Jobe, Goodrich, Vincent, and others.
Outside of the 2017 run, the Eagles have depended on free agents and trades
The only years where the Eagles got over half their cornerback snaps from drafted players was the 2017-2019 stretch when they had Avonte Maddox, Jalen Mills, and Rasul Douglas all playing meaningful snaps.
Just as a comparison since it is still fresh in all of our minds, Kansas City not only won the Super Bowl with rookies, but 98% of their 2022 cornerback snaps were from their own drafted players.
Teams can win in multiple ways and this isn’t to say what the Eagles are doing is wrong – it is just what it is. But the Eagles have also lacked stability in their secondary.
Below shows the top 3 CBs by snap counts each year and their pass defense rank by DVOA – names in red are new from the prior year.
Only 2014 did the Eagles return the same starting three CBs (and it wasn’t a good defense). They have also generally had a middle of the league pass defense with a top-10 defense three times – 2016, 2017, and 2022. What do some of those years have in common…?
So what does this all mean for 2023?
To recap:
- Besides one failed attempt in 2017, Howie has not drafted CBs
- Looking back, he made the right decision as the CBs available at their picks have largely been bad
- To get good CBs in the draft, you must draft them high and even then, CBs are the hardest position to hit on
- With the exception of Nnamdi, he instead has signed affordable free agents options
- Recently he has also loaded up on low-cost “lottery tickets” with UDFAs and trades – time will tell is a Josh Jobe works out
- They’ve generally had a middle of the league secondary in performance and cost but their best years were with top secondaries
What is interesting is where the Eagles sit right now is unlike where they have been before in Howie’s tenure.
They are about to pay a QB
The only time in Howie’s tenure they’ve had to pay a QB over 10% of the cap was 2010-2011 with Vick. Add in 2021 for Wentz – although Wentz’s contract never hit above 10% of the cap, the $33.8M dead cap hit in 2021 was a massive cap hit.
The CB room is getting expensive
The highest ranked the Eagles have been in the league in spend on CBs is 10th in 2014 and 13th this past season. In 2023 they are slotted to be 1st and that is without Bradberry.
The Eagles may actually be in a position to get a top CB this year
Howie has picked high several times – pick 4 in 2013 when they took Lane Johnson, the trade up to pick 2 in 2016 for Wentz, pick 10 in 2020 when they took DeVonta. But they haven’t really had a corner as BPA in any draft and haven’t reached.
Does this mean they will draft a corner?
They absolutely have a need to cheapen the CB room but this is a multi-year issue, not really a 2023 issue. Yes, Hurts will be paid but they still have one cheap year and will fully utilize the length of that contract. Slay is very expensive but his contract ends in 2023 (with some future money). Howie, maybe to a fault, does not go into a season depending on a rookie to fill a critical spot (except DeVonta and Reagor).
So, yes, they could draft a corner. I don’t believe just because Howie hasn’t taken one means he is philosophically opposed to it. But their positional need and financial situation will not force Howie to take one, especially if he has to reach. And especially if he thinks they have a window to win now.
What would I do and what do I think is a likely scenario? I always mock corners and have wanted Gonzalez or Witherspoon for months. But I increasingly think the most likely scenario is they miss out again.
What if this is where the first 10 picks go?
QBs didn’t fly off the board and both CBs are gone. Is Howie going to reach for JPJ or Cam Smith? Neither of them is anywhere near a top-10 pick. Do they take DL? I would love Tyree Wilson who can play inside and out but he will likely be gone… I love Nolan Smith, more than most, and would consider him there… I don’t see Van Ness, Myles Murphy, or Bresee as top-10 picks.
If the above happened, I would first look to trade back and still get a player like Emmanuel Forbes, BJ Ojulari, Dawand Jones, Anton Harrison, or Darnell Wright. But if I had to pick here with that board, it would absolutely be a tackle.
And I think, despite what we all want, that is where Howie will look. It’s a position of value high in the 1st, it is likely BPA, and it fills a need. Future need to replace Lane aside, Seumalo will be gone which means Driscoll likely takes his spot leaving them with backup tackle.
So will Howie take a corner? If you look at history, it isn’t an easy yes or no – it depends on how the picks ahead of them go. He could look to later picks to take one. And if Howie takes a CB, even if somehow Gonzalez or Devon falls to them, with sights set on the Super Bowl, he is going to bring somebody else in and not depend on a rookie.
Yesterday David posted a lot of this same information, raising the possibility on Howie going after Jalen Ramsey. Is it likely? Probably not. I (irrationally) hate giving up picks and he wants an extension that could be problematic. Howie hasn’t gone to the top end of the trade and free agency market often.
But is it crazy? Also no if you think about loading up for another Super Bowl run. With Slay’s contract ending in a year and Hurts still cheap, they could make it work if they wanted. Again, not likely but not crazy and, depending on cost, it does fit with how Howie has approached the position. Even if he drafts a top CB, he will most definitely have a veteran as well.
Thanks for reading and if you aren’t already, please follow us at @PhillyCvrCorner, @PhillyEagleNews, and @GregHartPA