I’ve only written deep dives into two games this year – the Titans game which most circled as the first big test for the Eagles and the NFC Championship game against the 49ers. In both I thought the Eagles were clearly the better team.
The Super Bowl is different, but that’s what you get when you have the top two teams playing. If you dive into the stats, they are freakishly even in so many areas:
- KC’s offense is ranked 1st in passing and 9th in rushing by DVOA, the Eagles offense is ranked 9th in passing and 1st in rushing
- The Philly defense is 1st against the pass and KC is the top passing offense
- Both teams suffer defending the run, with Philly 25th and KC 22nd in the league
- And both offenses run the ball well with the historically great Eagles’ rush offense top in the league and KC 9th (more on this one later though)
- Both teams generate a lot of explosive plays with KC generating 162 explosives this year vs. Philly’s 161
If you feel really confident on this game, I envy you.
I do think the Eagles win this game, though, and it comes down to a few reasons.
Kansas City has only faced 3 top offenses
Both teams had some of the easiest schedules in the league, so there is no difference there. But Kansas City just hasn’t faced many good offenses and they lost two of the three (Buffalo and Cincinnati in the regular season).
Below shows the KC opponents in blue ranked by their rush (y-axis) and pass (x-axis) offenses. Their three losses this season are circled.
The Eagles – especially on the ground – will be a far better offense than the KC defense has faced all year.
The Chiefs have been in a ton of close games
The Chiefs have played in 12 one-score games this year including both of their playoff games, going 9-3. Many view one-score games as a component of team “luck”, but that is not right. Better teams, and better quarterbacks, win more close games.
But it does show how close many of KC’s games have been and how several of them were there for the winning. Here’s a run down of their one-score games:
| Week 2 | 27-24 win vs. Chargers | KC gets a pick-six to go up 7, adds a FG, Herbert leads a late drive to get within 3 |
| Week 3 | 17-20 loss to Colts | KC misses a 4th quarter FG and then Matt Ryan leads and 8-minute TD drive to go ahead with 24 seconds remaining |
| Week 5 | 30-29 win vs. Raiders | Raiders score with 4 minutes left and fail going for two to go ahead instead of kicking the XP to tie, KC holds to win |
| Week 6 | 20-24 loss to Bills | Allen throws a late TD to go up, Mahomes throws a pick on their final drive |
| Week 9 | 20-17 OT win vs. Titans | Playing the titans who started Malik Willis, KC ties with a TD and 2-point conversion with 3 minutes left, goes on to win in OT with a FG |
| Week 11 | 30-27 win vs. Chargers | KC leads a TD drive to go ahead with 26 seconds remaining |
| Week 13 | 24-27 loss to Bengals | Cincy stops KC’s late drive at the 38 yardline and KC misses a 55-yard FG to tie |
| Week 14 | 34-28 win vs. Broncos | KC was in charge of this game the whole time, Denver scores to pull within 6 points early in the 4th but loses Wilson on the drive. Denver does intercept Mahomes late but Rypien throws a pick right back. |
| Week 15 | 30-24 OT win vs. Texans | KC misses a 51-yard FG with 8 seconds left but scores after Davis Mills fumbles on his own 15 yardline in OT |
| Week 17 | 27-24 win vs. Broncos | Another close game against the Broncos, KC allowed Denver to pull within 3 with 6 minutes left, but hold Denver on their final drive |
| DR | 27-20 win vs. Jaguars | Jacksonville was down 10 until a late FG but was not threatening in this game despite Mahomes being out for part of it |
| CC | 23-20 win vs. Bengals | In the 4th Burrow on 3rd-and-3 throws a deep pass that gets tipped and intercepted, KC later kicks a FG with 3 seconds left to win the AFC Championship |
As a comparison, the Eagles have been in 7 one-score games, going 6-1. The Eagles had to score late against the Colts and Cardinals to win and the one loss to Dallas was the Gardner Minshew led-game, but the other 4 games were never in doubt.
Most likely this game will be close at the end and everybody (rightfully) focuses on Mahomes, but Jalen Hurts has been elite this year scoring late.
For more detail if interested, I wrote earlier in the season about how good Hurts is leading late half scoring drives, being 3rd in scoring success while having the 20th worst starting field position.
It will be a bad week for the “blitz moar” crowd
The Buddy Ryan / Jim Johnson fan club will always come out and demand Gannon blitz more. We will hear “you gotta blitz Mahomes with his ankle injury”.
No.
Just no.
Mahomes is the 4th LEAST blitzed QB in the league at only 24% of dropbacks facing a blitz. And for good reason. He leads the league against the blitz with a 115.8 passer rating, with 1,449 yards on 182 pass attempts, 17 TDs to 3 INTs and a league-low 7.4% pressure-to-sack rate allowed. The blitz doesn’t bother him and he creates masterfully against it.
The teams that did best against KC didn’t blitz. In the six games where KC lost or were held to 20 points or less, here are the blitz stats from the opposing defenses:
| 17-20 loss to Colts | Faced only 2 blitzes (4.8% of dropbacks) |
| 20-24 loss to Bills | 9 blitzes (19.1%) |
| 20-17 win vs. Titans | 5 blitzes (6.4%) |
| 24-27 loss to Bengals | 5 blitzes (16.1%) |
| 27-20 playoff win vs. Jaguars | 14 blitzes (43.8%) |
| 23-20 playoff win vs. Bengals | 13 blitzes (26.0%) |
Only twice have these teams blitzed Mahomes more than 20% of dropbacks – both of the playoff games when Mahomes’ ankle was injured. Both losses.
In both games Mahomes was still very good against the blitz:
- Against Jacksonville on his hurt ankle, Mahomes went 10/13 for 89 yards with 1 TD, no INTs, and a 120.4 passer rating
- Against the Bengals, he went 11/13 for 129 yards, 1 TD and no INTs, and a 133.7 passer rating
I don’t think I get many of the “blitz every down” crowd for readers, but if you are watching the game yelling at the TV for Gannon to blitz more, think about this.
Maybe his ankle really isn’t better but the Eagles can generate pressure without blitzing and will choose to have +1 coverage against Mahomes which is very much needed.
We trust in Jonathan “f***ing gut these guys” Gannon.
And of course the run game…
I talk about it all the time, but the Eagles rush offense deserves it. This team has 4 of the top 25 rushing games since 2010. And they have done it against everybody.
The Eagles have played 7 games against top-10 run defenses, including the top two run defenses (San Francisco is 1st and Tennessee is 2nd).
They didn’t try to run against Tennessee, instead attacking their corners deep, but showed they can run against any defense. Against these top-10 run defenses, the Eagles averaged over 100 yards a game including 150 in the NFC championship game against the much-feared SF defense.
Kansas City is 22nd in the league against the run and has allowed over 100 yards 12 times this season. Against the three better-than-league-average run offenses they have faced, they have averaged over 120 yards of rushing allowed.
Expect another massive, run-heavy game form the Eagles.
I don’t love this game, it’s never easy facing a QB like Mahomes, but so far this season the Eagles have shown they are only in trouble when they turn the ball over 4 times (Washington loss), don’t have Hurts (New Orleans loss), or both (Dallas loss).
If Kansas City can straight up beat this team, it will be the first time this season the Eagles just get beat. And Kansas City will rightly be the best team in the league. But until then, I’m picking the Eagles.
I don’t do score predictions but was asked on Twitter, so what the heck. It’s going to be high-scoring and a one-score game… Eagles 41-33.
One more game.
Fly Eagles fly!
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