I got into this conversation a few times recently. It started when I wrote the Devon Witherspoon draft profile and said he should be a round 1 corner. At the time, all the simulators had him with an Average Draft Position (ADP) sometime mid day 2. And heard it again when I said Kelee Ringo wasn’t a top-10 pick.
Most responses I got were in-depth scouting responses or shared previously unknown analytics. Ya know, like “LMAO…” or “You’re blind”.
So many people treat early prospect and simulator rankings as reality and they just aren’t at this point.
How good (or bad) rankings are at this point in the year
I went back and looked at where the prospect rankings were at this point in the year and how much they changed by the time of the draft. And unsurprisingly they change a lot.
Below shows January draft rankings for round 1 prospects and guys that actually landed in the 1st for the 2021 and 2022 drafts. The horizontal axis are the R1 prospects based on their ADP (1-70) and the dots reflect how much they rose (if the dot is above the center line) or fell (below the center line) in the actual draft.
A few takeaways:
The top 10 of the draft is better and has less movement
The top-10 moved on average 12 spots but that is heavily skewed by the QBs falling last year. If you exclude Matt Corral (who fell 80 spots) and Malik Willis (fell 70 spots), the top-10 is pretty solid, averaging moving only 5 spots by the time of the draft.
The only non-QBs in projected to be top-10 that moved at least 10 spots were DeMarvin Leal and George Karlaftis in 2022 and Greg Rousseau in 2021.
Many of the 1st rounders today won’t actually be come April
Over the past two years, a third (20 of 64 picks) fell out of the 1st round between January and the draft, including our own Nakobe Dean. Here’s the list with their January ADP and actual pick location:
| Year | Player | EOY ADP | Actual Pick | Change |
| 2022 | Matt Corral | 7 | 94 | -87 |
| DeMarvin Leal | 8 | 84 | -76 | |
| Malik Willis | 10 | 86 | -76 | |
| Sam Howell | 14 | 144 | -130 | |
| Andrew Booth | 16 | 42 | -26 | |
| Drake Jackson | 23 | 61 | -38 | |
| Carson Strong | 29 | UDFA | n/a | |
| Desmond Ridder | 30 | 74 | -44 | |
| Nakobe Dean | 31 | 83 | -52 | |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 32 | 179 | -147 | |
| 2021 | Samuel Cosmi | 14 | 51 | -37 |
| Wyatt Davis | 17 | 86 | -69 | |
| Azeez Ojulari | 18 | 50 | -32 | |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | 23 | 52 | -29 | |
| Trevon Moehrig | 24 | 43 | -19 | |
| Christian Barmore | 26 | 38 | -12 | |
| Rondale Moore | 27 | 49 | -22 | |
| Boogie Basham | 28 | 61 | -33 | |
| Terrace Marshall | 29 | 59 | -30 | |
| Creed Humphrey | 30 | 63 | -33 |
The players that took their spot in the 1st weren’t barely outside in January – they moved up a lot
Only two eventual 1st rounders were barely outside the 1st in January – Odafe Oweh and Dax Hill. The rest came from deep in the big boards. In 2022, the 10 players that moved into R1 moved up an average of 46 spots. In 2021, it was 38 spots.
Here’s the list of risers and how many spots they moved up from January:
| Year | Player | Position | Actual Pick | Change from EOY ADP |
| 2022 | Travon Walker | EDGE | 1 | +39 |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | 16 | +23 | |
| Zion Johnson | IOL | 17 | +35 | |
| Quay Walker | LB | 22 | +88 | |
| Tyler Smith | OT | 24 | +56 | |
| Jermaine Johnson | EDGE | 26 | +12 | |
| Devonte Wyatt | DT | 28 | +42 | |
| Cole Strange | OC | 29 | +131 | |
| Daxton Hill | SAF | 31 | +7 | |
| Lewis Cine | SAF | 32 | +28 | |
| 2021 | Alijah Vera-Tucker | IOL | 14 | +20 |
| Zaven Collins | LB | 16 | +19 | |
| Jaelan Phillips | EDGE | 18 | +22 | |
| Jamin Davis | LB | 19 | +91 | |
| Kadarius Toney | WR | 20 | +44 | |
| Greg Newsome | CB | 26 | +44 | |
| Payton Turner | EDGE | 28 | +92 | |
| Eric Stokes | CB | 29 | +16 | |
| Odafe Oweh | EDGE | 31 | +7 | |
| Joe Tryon-Shoyinka | EDGE | 32 | +28 |
The premium positions were of course the big risers
Even though rankings already push premium positions up the board, they generally surprise even further.
Wide receiver moves up. A LOT. Of 15 WRs, they average moving up 17 spots vs. their January ADP. Cornerback moves up too, averaging going up 8 spots. And it’s hard to find any WRs or CBs that actually fall – the only ones all had pre-draft injury concerns (Terrace Marshall, Rondale Moore, Caleb Farley, and Andrew Booth were the only ones that fell).
And while they did not quite make it into round 1, two explosive small-school WRs – Christian Watson and Skyy Moore – each rose over 80 spots.
Tackles also rise with only one – Samuel Cosmi in 2021 – falling more than a few spots when he dropped 37 spots into the 2nd. Cosmi was one of “my guys” that year and plenty of teams regret passing over him.
Pass rushers are a bit more interesting as they move both ways. No position has more big risers, with a third of EDGEs rising more than 20 spots. But almost a quarter also fall more than 20 spots, more than any other position except QB last year.
For every Travon Walker (+39 all the way to pick #1), Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (+28), and Payton Turner (+92) there is a Drake Jackson (-36), Greg Rousseau (-22), and Kingsley Enagbare (-145).
What could this mean for the 2023 draft?
Just remember that a third of the 1st round you see in simulators could be totally wrong. And when a simulator lets you grab Nolan Smith in the 2nd, just know your excitement is going to be short-lived.
Who knows where players will end up, but some that could rise or fall by the time April gets here:
Potential risers:
EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah: He is sitting around 40 today and there is zero chance he lasts that long. He is one of 4 prospects with a pass rush win rate above 30% and run stop rate above 10% and will be in the 1st.
OT Anton Harrison: Slotted in the early 2nd, this big and athletic tackle is going to rise especially in a weaker class.
CB Devon Witherspoon: He has already moved up a lot but is still only at pick 32, he will go higher. He’s my CB2 and there’s no way he is lower than CB4. He is solidly in R1.
CB Emmanuel Forbes: Currently 38th, I would have Forbes as CB4 or CB5 which would almost guarantee R1. Really good zone CB, 2nd best rate of getting hands on ball in this class behind Devon.
WR Zay Flowers: Currently at 56 as WR7, I would not be surprised if Zay is one of the WR risers as he is more complete than others ahead of him. Smaller, but in a weaker WR class than past years he brings more than people are giving him credit for currently.
LB Drew Sanders: Everybody, especially us in Philly, assumes LB isn’t a R1 position but every year 2-4 highly athletic LBs that can be used across the field are taken in the 1st. Sanders, currently slotted at 45, is big, athletic, and can both rush and cover. Many are saying this is a weak LB class, I don’t see it.
OT Darnell Wright: He shined vs. Will Anderson and has the size and feet. The only pure RT in this class and will go well above his slot around 80. Can he get all the way to the 1st? Not sure, but there are probably only 2 or 3 OTs I would take over him right now.
Potential drops:
CB Clark Phillips: Risky picking a corner to drop given how heavily they are drafted but every year a CB with a lot of INTs gets pushed up. INTs are not stable metrics and his underlying stats and tape don’t back up his ranking. He gets his hands on the ball (forced incompletion rate which is a better metric) at one of the lowest rates in this class and got torched by USC twice. Currently sitting at 26, I don’t get it at all.
TE Michael Mayer: I am alone on this one and it’s another where I have gotten grief. TEs don’t go in R1 often and is Mayer really a Pitts or even a Hockenson? He is viewed as “good but not great at everything”, but he isn’t a great blocker and do you take “good” or “solid” here?
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: I hate putting him here as I actually really like him, but he is not explosive and dealt with a hamstring for all of 2022. Currently WR3 in the middle of the 1st, this is one I would love to be wrong on. But I wouldn’t take a non-explosive WR with a season long lingering leg injury here, especially given other options. I’d be shocked if he went R1 honestly.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs: I absolutely love Gibbs who is currently viewed as a R1 lock. But it’s a really good RB class which may cause teams to wait for day 2. And, while it’s a good class there aren’t a lot of bigger backs this year which may have teams look elsewhere. Think he is similar to Travis Etienne and similar sizes, so it isn’t crazy for him to be R1 but I don’t think he is as sure a lock as currently viewed.
Some dark horses:
C John Michael Schmitz: Being from Philly, you have to love centers. It generally isn’t viewed as a R1 position, but only once in the last 5 years was a center not taken – 2021 when OG/OC Landon Dickerson probably would have been taken if he didn’t tear his ACL and Creed Humphrey should have been taken. Centers are more situational with a late R1 team having a need and taking the opportunity to take the best player at their position. Denver is at the end of R1 this year and could use a center…
EDGE Zach Harrison: I think this DL class will be historically drafted and could reach 2019’s 11 taken in the 1st. Could Harrison be this year’s Payton Turner? They are similar size and builds. Harrison is currently 68 and behind rushers like Andre Carter, Isaiah Foskey, and BJ Ojulari. It’s not crazy that a team gets enamored with his 6’6″ 270 lb frame and reaches for him.
NT Keondre Coburn: As most of the league goes to the same two-high defense, there just aren’t enough NTs out there to really run them. Siaki is the one everybody talks about but Keondre might be better. He probably doesn’t go R1, but there’s no way he lasts until his current slot in the 150s.
CB Julius Brents: Currently in the 4th round, he will move up based on size, athleticism, and Tariq Woolen‘s success. I doubt to the 1st, but it will be interesting to see how teams look at him.
As always thanks for reading. And please follow us on Twitter at @PhillyCvrCorner, @PHLEaglesNews, and @GregHartPA. And please visit our friends at @WagerWire