I love analytics but a lot of the community has long brought out their EPA per play stats to proclaim that rushing is dead, long live the always-superior pass game.
Yes, it is a passing league. Every time I write on the value of rushing, I get reminded that it is a passing league. It is. And yes, passing has an average EPA/play higher than rushing. But that does not mean there isn’t value in rushing. And the game isn’t that simple.
Before digging into the recent trends and how ridiculously good the 2022 Eagles are, just a few reasons why rushing is important.
Why rushing is important, especially today
The “on the field” value
The Chargers Brandon Staley has had his star dim a bit this year with the under-performance of the Chargers, but he is and remains a brilliant football mind. And he is one of the most analytically driven coaches out there.
Last year he was asked about the value of the run game and he didn’t point to it being a passing league or the analytics, but to what it actually means on the field.
You don’t need the running game to be a good play action team, but what you need the running game for is the physical element of the game. There is a physicality to the game that is real. If you’re strictly a passing team, there is a physical element to the game that the defense doesn’t have to respect. That’s the truth.”
Brandon Staley
For the full article, go see it on Football Scoop here.
More balanced drives empirically result in higher scoring
Last year I looked at run/pass balance and how it related to actual drive success rates. This showed that balanced drives result in higher scoring rates – drives between 50-55% passing had the greatest excess point value (scoring above the drive’s starting expected points).
I won’t repeat the data here, but if interested you can find it here “What Does the Data Say on Run / Pass Balance?”
Today’s two-high defenses are forcing it
The Fangio-philosophy defenses have taken root over the past two years, going from a handful of teams to near half of the league trying to run some version of it. But one of the first big games that was recognized as different in attacking these defenses was the Packers win over Staley’s Rams in the 2020 NFC Divisional round.
There is a great article on this at The Athletic called “How offenses need to adapt to the rise of the Vic Fangio-Brandon Staley defense“. In it, Aaron Rodgers talks about how the Packers planned to attack Staley’s defense which was built to take big plays away, dare teams to run with light boxes, and force offenses into long, patient, efficient drives.
On way to a 32-18 win that day, the Packers ran 36 times (10 more than their per-game average) for 188 yards. Nathaniel Hackett, the Packers OC that game, explained why they had to use a patient, quick-passing, and run-heavy gameplan:
We watched [the Staley defense] and were like, ‘We can’t do [play-action] passes, we can’t get explosive plays.’ We have to make them stop the run. Because we can run the ball every play on them.”
Nathaniel Hackett, Packers OC
The return of the run game
The league is cyclical and many are pointing to the return of the run game. And it is coming back for all the reasons above. But there are differences this time.
First, some overall stats on the rushing (note that all the data below excludes QB kneels which are by default included in NFLfast rushing stats and negatively skew run value):
Rushing value has been climbing since 2015 and has a positive EPA/play for the first time in 2022:
But much of this improvement in rushing value is due to mobile QBs:
The red line above shows non-QB rushes with the EPA/play on the left axis. Non-QB rushes have recently increased in efficiency, climbing since 2019 but still at -0.048 EPA/rush in 2022.
The blue line shows QB rushes with two points. QB rushing has always generated a much higher EPA/play at +0.127 in 2010, equivalent to Derek Carr’s passing, the 11th best passer in 2022. QB rushing value has steadily climbed, now generating a crazy +0.310 EPA/rush, better than every QB’s passing value in 2022 except Mahomes.
And QB rushing is increasing in frequency. The average number of rushes per game is steady since 2010, but non-QB rushes are down almost 7%, averaging 22 rushes per game. But QB runs are up 67%, from 2.1 per game in 2010 to over 3.6 per game this season.
While QBs only account for 1 out of 6 rushes today, QB rushing accounts for 35% of the league’s total increase in rushing value since 2010. As I wrote in my last article, it is a mobile QB league.
How good are the Eagles?
While everybody sees how good the Eagles have been running the ball this year, I don’t think we all realize how good they are. I didn’t until I dug into the data.
The Eagles have the #1 rushing game since 2010 by EPA/rush
There have been 6,682 games played since 2010. You know what the top rushing game in EPA/play has been? This past week’s Eagles game against the Giants (33 rushes for 208 yards and a TD) with an absolutely absurd rushing EPA of +0.681 per play and +20.417 total EPA generated. To put this in context again, Patrick Mahomes’ passing EPA is +0.321 per game, less than half the Eagles run game last week.
…and the #1 rushing game by total EPA…
And want to guess what the top game since 2010 was in total rushing EPA? The Eagles in week 12 vs. Green Bay (49 rushes for 363 yards and 3 TDs). The had a total rushing EPA of +21.332 and an EPA/rush of +0.444, good for #51 out of all 6,682 games since 2010.
… and three of the top 25 rushing games since 2010…
The 2022 Eagles have 3 rushing games in the top-25 total EPA games with the two above plus week 1 vs. Detroit (39 rushes for 216 yards and 4 TDs) at +16.372 EPA and +0.431 EPA/rush.
… and they are the top rushing team since 2010
Of 416 team seasons since 2010, the 2022 Eagles are the top rushing team with an EPA/rush of +0.195. To put this in context, if the Eagles run game was a QB, it would be Joe Burrow, the 7th best passer in the league.
Please visit our friends at WagerWire and Fly Eagles fly!
Here are the top 25 rushing games by total EPA since 2010 if anybody is interested in the list. the other 2022 game that made it is Cincinnati with 39 rushes for 241 yards and 5 TDs against Carolina in week 9.
| Team | Yr | Year-Week-Opponent | Rush EPA/play | Total Rush EPA | EPA/play QB | EPA/play non-QB | Rank EPA/play | Rank Total EPA |
| PHI | 2022 | 2022_12_GB_PHI | 0.444 | 21.333 | 0.741 | 0.296 | 51 | 1 |
| PHI | 2022 | 2022_14_PHI_NYG | 0.681 | 20.417 | 1.266 | 0.503 | 1 | 2 |
| NO | 2017 | 2017_10_NO_BUF | 0.460 | 20.223 | 1.598 | 0.433 | 42 | 3 |
| BAL | 2020 | 2020_13_DAL_BAL | 0.521 | 19.281 | 0.697 | 0.426 | 15 | 4 |
| SEA | 2012 | 2012_15_SEA_BUF | 0.600 | 19.195 | 1.064 | 0.418 | 4 | 5 |
| MIN | 2011 | 2011_14_MIN_DET | 0.564 | 19.163 | 1.705 | 0.212 | 5 | 6 |
| LV | 2010 | 2010_07_OAK_DEN | 0.367 | 18.360 | 0.148 | 0.392 | 136 | 7 |
| NO | 2013 | 2013_10_DAL_NO | 0.509 | 18.312 | 0.509 | 23 | 8 | |
| SF | 2012 | 2012_05_BUF_SF | 0.474 | 18.010 | 0.749 | 0.412 | 36 | 9 |
| BAL | 2020 | 2020_17_BAL_CIN | 0.333 | 17.979 | 0.014 | 0.480 | 190 | 10 |
| ARI | 2020 | 2020_06_ARI_DAL | 0.521 | 17.710 | 0.944 | 0.368 | 16 | 11 |
| CAR | 2012 | 2012_17_CAR_NO | 0.466 | 17.702 | 0.354 | 0.487 | 39 | 12 |
| PHI | 2013 | 2013_16_CHI_PHI | 0.520 | 17.681 | -0.062 | 0.556 | 18 | 13 |
| NO | 2020 | 2020_16_MIN_NO | 0.419 | 17.579 | 0.632 | 0.390 | 80 | 14 |
| LA | 2018 | 2018_06_LA_DEN | 0.466 | 17.224 | 1.048 | 0.432 | 40 | 15 |
| SEA | 2014 | 2014_10_NYG_SEA | 0.397 | 17.072 | 0.489 | 0.361 | 102 | 16 |
| CIN | 2022 | 2022_09_CAR_CIN | 0.459 | 16.982 | 0.423 | 0.469 | 43 | 17 |
| NE | 2014 | 2014_11_NE_IND | 0.422 | 16.898 | 0.422 | 77 | 18 | |
| SF | 2012 | 2012_19_GB_SF | 0.412 | 16.893 | 0.870 | 0.175 | 87 | 19 |
| CLE | 2020 | 2020_04_CLE_DAL | 0.444 | 16.886 | 2.355 | 0.393 | 52 | 20 |
| SF | 2012 | 2012_04_SF_NYJ | 0.395 | 16.599 | 1.111 | 0.276 | 103 | 21 |
| HOU | 2011 | 2011_09_CLE_HOU | 0.434 | 16.481 | 1.836 | 0.396 | 62 | 22 |
| PHI | 2022 | 2022_01_PHI_DET | 0.431 | 16.372 | 0.729 | 0.214 | 62 | 23 |
| BUF | 2021 | 2021_19_NE_BUF | 0.623 | 16.198 | 1.037 | 0.499 | 3 | 24 |
| BAL | 2019 | 2019_03_BAL_KC | 0.473 | 16.088 | 0.374 | 0.514 | 37 | 25 |