Sunday: “It’s 4th-and-1 late in the first half and the Giants are back to punt… Gillan lofts the ball… Covey is under it and waves for the fair catch at the Eagles own 16… with a minute twenty-two left in the half, Jalen Hurts and the offense come back out on the field to see if they can extend their lead…”
We all know Hurts and the Eagles are going to score to close out the half.
(And tuck away for Sunday the Giants punting on 4th-and-1… they are tied for second in the league with punting 6 times on 4th-and-1, behind only Denver)
In all my years watching the Eagles, I have never had this level of confidence – actually, the expectation – that an Eagles team and QB will take advantage of the last bit of a half.
A quarterback being clutch is subjective and can be measured so many ways. Here I wanted to look at a QB’s ability to take a drive at the end of the first half or end of game and drive for a score. Without looking into the data, it just seems like Jalen Hurts does this almost every time he has the ball.
And while it’s not quite every time, he is one of the best in the league at it.
Which QBs are clutch at the end of halfs?
Below are this season’s QBs and how effective they are in driving to score late in a half. I am using drives that start with 3 minutes or less left and excluding drives that are kneels and the team didn’t attempt to drive.
The x-axis is how many points these QBs score (TDs plus field goals) compared to the total possible points (7 points times the number of drives). The y-axis is the percentage of late-half drives where the QB generated an explosive play.
Like almost any QB stat you want to look at this year, Jalen Hurts stands out.
Some stats on how good Hurts has been in these late half drives:
3rd in scoring success
On 14 late half drives so far, Hurts has 27 total points including 3 touchdowns and 2 field goals. This is good for 27.6% of total possible points with only Josh Allen and Dak Prescott having higher success rates (more on Dak below).
20th in starting field position
Hurts has done this without the benefit of a lot of short fields with an average starting field position on the Eagles own 26 yard line. And 4 of his 5 scoring drives were well into Eagles territory, starting at their own 29, 22, 12, and 5 yard lines. The only short field was against Jacksonville where they started on the Jags 35 yard line after Trevor fumbled the snap.
Below is the same scoring success rate chart from above but with average drive starting position on the y-axis. Allen, Brady, and Hurts all continue to dominate the top. But here you see that while Dak converts these drives into points, he has benefited from short fields with 2 of his 3 late half scoring drives being very short fields, starting at the opposing 24 and 26 after turnovers.
2nd in drives with explosive plays
The chance of scoring on a drive triples with one explosive play and goes up 5 times with two explosives.
Hurts has had 11 explosive plays in 60 total plays. 7 out of 11 drives had at least one explosive play with 4 resulting in a score and 3 drives had more than one explosive. Only Josh Allen beats Hurts here and Mahomes is right behind him.
3rd in average yards gained per drive
Hurts averages 32.5 yards gained on these drives, only behind Allen and Brady.
6th in EPA / drive
Hurts averages generating 3.017 EPA per drive, or 0.703 EPA/play, on these late half drives. To give context, Patrick Mahomes is the top QB in EPA/play this year with a 0.336 EPA/play average.
Hurts and these top QBs – Allen, Brady, Jacoby Brissett, Joe Burrow, and Jared Goff – are over twice as efficient during these late half drives than the league’s best passer.
And for the “the Eagles don’t trust Hurts to pass” crowd…
On these late half drives, Hurts has a run/pass ratio of 19 rushes/38 passes, or a 67% pass rate.
Hurts stands out no matter how you look at this.
As always thanks for reading. Please visit our friends at WagerWire.
If interested in the complete set of data, for example to point out that Wentz only has a field goal in 13 drives and is 30th in the league in explosive plays… or that offseason QB crush for many Russell Wilson has 9 points, good for 26th in the league, here you go.
| QB | Drives | Avg Yards to Go | Rank | Points Scored | Rank | % Possible Points | Rank | % Drives with Explosive Plays | Rank | Runs / Passes | % Pass | Rank | Yards Gained per Drive | Rank | EPA per Drive | Rank |
| J.Allen | 18 | 76.11 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 31.75 | 1 | 83.3 | 1 | 18/66 | 78.6 | 10 | 41.3 | 1 | 6.114 | 1 |
| D.Prescott | 12 | 59.58 | 30 | 24 | 9 | 28.57 | 2 | 25 | 23 | 10/22 | 68.8 | 19 | 16.1 | 26 | 2.504 | 8 |
| J.Hurts | 14 | 73.5 | 11 | 27 | 6 | 27.55 | 3 | 78.6 | 2 | 19/38 | 66.7 | 22 | 32.5 | 3 | 3.017 | 6 |
| T.Brady | 18 | 75.78 | 4 | 33 | 3 | 26.19 | 4 | 44.4 | 13 | 8/74 | 90.2 | 1 | 32.6 | 2 | 5.244 | 2 |
| J.Herbert | 22 | 67.27 | 21 | 36 | 2 | 23.38 | 5 | 50 | 9 | 23/72 | 75.8 | 13 | 23.6 | 12 | 1.402 | 12 |
| D.Carr | 12 | 71.17 | 15 | 19 | 14 | 22.62 | 6 | 50 | 9 | 12/43 | 78.2 | 11 | 28.1 | 5 | 0.616 | 14 |
| J.Brissett | 19 | 64.74 | 28 | 30 | 4 | 22.56 | 7 | 47.4 | 11 | 21/51 | 70.8 | 17 | 21 | 16 | 3.195 | 4 |
| J.Burrow | 18 | 71.39 | 14 | 27 | 6 | 21.43 | 8 | 33.3 | 19 | 12/48 | 80 | 7 | 21.6 | 13 | 3.127 | 5 |
| J.Goff | 18 | 66.67 | 23 | 27 | 6 | 21.43 | 8 | 44.4 | 13 | 26/43 | 62.3 | 27 | 24.6 | 11 | 4.61 | 3 |
| T.Heinicke | 11 | 74.55 | 7 | 16 | 17 | 20.78 | 10 | 45.5 | 12 | 14/35 | 71.4 | 16 | 25.3 | 10 | 1.869 | 10 |
| K.Cousins | 19 | 67.89 | 20 | 26 | 8 | 19.55 | 11 | 31.6 | 21 | 11/54 | 83.1 | 4 | 20.9 | 17 | 0.02 | 17 |
| G.Smith | 16 | 70.56 | 17 | 20 | 12 | 17.86 | 12 | 56.3 | 7 | 20/40 | 66.7 | 22 | 26.4 | 8 | 2.558 | 7 |
| J.Garoppolo | 12 | 66.75 | 22 | 14 | 19 | 16.67 | 13 | 16.7 | 29 | 15/29 | 65.9 | 24 | 18.5 | 23 | -1.597 | 23 |
| A.Dalton | 12 | 73.75 | 9 | 13 | 20 | 15.48 | 14 | 58.3 | 6 | 9/43 | 82.7 | 5 | 27.8 | 6 | -1.504 | 22 |
| D.Jones | 20 | 74.85 | 6 | 20 | 12 | 14.29 | 16 | 35 | 18 | 16/49 | 75.4 | 14 | 18.6 | 22 | 1.183 | 13 |
| L.Jackson | 10 | 76.6 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 14.29 | 16 | 30 | 22 | 9/20 | 69 | 18 | 21.3 | 15 | 1.521 | 11 |
| M.Ryan | 22 | 66.32 | 25 | 22 | 10 | 14.29 | 16 | 22.7 | 25 | 22/72 | 76.6 | 12 | 21.4 | 14 | 0.025 | 16 |
| T.Lawrence | 17 | 62.35 | 29 | 17 | 16 | 14.29 | 16 | 70.6 | 4 | 12/64 | 84.2 | 3 | 27.2 | 7 | -0.215 | 19 |
| A.Rodgers | 21 | 68.71 | 19 | 20 | 12 | 13.61 | 19 | 38.1 | 16 | 13/48 | 78.7 | 9 | 18 | 24 | -1.311 | 21 |
| P.Mahomes | 17 | 75.65 | 5 | 16 | 17 | 13.45 | 20 | 76.5 | 3 | 11/44 | 80 | 7 | 26.4 | 9 | 1.931 | 9 |
| P.Walker | 11 | 68.91 | 18 | 10 | 23 | 12.99 | 21 | 36.4 | 17 | 12/12 | 50 | 30 | 16.1 | 25 | -4.752 | 30 |
| C.Rush | 10 | 65.8 | 27 | 9 | 26 | 12.86 | 22 | 20 | 27 | 6/34 | 85 | 2 | 19.3 | 20 | -1.135 | 20 |
| M.Jones | 11 | 71.73 | 12 | 9 | 26 | 11.69 | 23 | 54.6 | 8 | 12/24 | 66.7 | 22 | 20 | 18 | -0.155 | 18 |
| M.Mariota | 24 | 71.58 | 13 | 19 | 14 | 11.31 | 24 | 33.3 | 19 | 22/38 | 63.3 | 26 | 14.5 | 27 | -3.564 | 26 |
| M.Stafford | 14 | 66.57 | 24 | 10 | 23 | 10.2 | 25 | 21.4 | 26 | 13/27 | 67.5 | 20 | 11.6 | 28 | -4.141 | 27 |
| R.Wilson | 14 | 76.57 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 9.18 | 26 | 64.3 | 5 | 11/48 | 81.4 | 6 | 29.6 | 4 | 0.606 | 15 |
| J.Fields | 23 | 66.04 | 26 | 13 | 20 | 8.07 | 27 | 43.5 | 15 | 32/35 | 52.2 | 29 | 19.5 | 19 | -4.302 | 29 |
| D.Mills | 17 | 73.71 | 10 | 6 | 28 | 5.04 | 28 | 17.7 | 28 | 16/26 | 61.9 | 28 | 9.8 | 29 | -4.213 | 28 |
| C.Wentz | 13 | 70.77 | 16 | 3 | 29 | 3.3 | 29 | 7.7 | 30 | 13/24 | 64.9 | 25 | 7.6 | 30 | -2.994 | 25 |
| K.Murray | 16 | 73.88 | 8 | 3 | 29 | 2.68 | 30 | 25 | 23 | 13/39 | 75 | 15 | 19.2 | 21 | -1.767 | 24 |