While it is apparent that mobile quarterbacks are rapidly changing the game, there is still such polarizing conversations around the position. We in Philly see it constantly with Jalen Hurts: “he leaves the pocket too early”… “won’t win in the playoffs when teams make him pass”… “he’s missing plays downfield when he runs”…
It really isn’t debatable that teams should be seeking mobile QBs.
QB Mobility Tiers
“Mobile” isn’t just pure rushing stats like Hurts running for 157 against Green Bay, it is also the ability to extend the play and create when under pressure.
Below is a visualization capturing both QB rushing and pocket mobility value. Rushing mobility is pretty straightforward as a composite of rushing yards and EPA/rush. For pocket mobility I am using a composite of three things:
- Pressure to sack rate: a QB’s ability to avoid sacks (lower is better)
- Added time to throw: the added time a QB gives themselves to pass when under pressure
- Pressure passer rating: how effective a QB is throwing under pressure
When you combine this, you get four quadrants of QBs:
1. The dual-threats (top right: good pocket mobility and rushing value):
The names here won’t surprise anybody as it is all of the QBs that are leading rushers – Jalen (595 yards through week 12), Lamar Jackson (756), Josh Allen (561), Daniel Jones (446), and so on. They average 28 rushes for 421 yards through 12 weeks.
But more than just their pure rushing stats, each QB here is effective passing under pressure. They give themselves an average 1.22 seconds extra to pass with a passer rating of 77, over 10 points better than the league.
2. The pocket managers (top left: good pocket mobility but not the runners):
This is the “underrated mobility” category. Aaron Rodgers is the classic example here – he isn’t going to tuck and run but is masterful giving himself extra time to throw with a crazy added 1.65 seconds to throw under pressure.
But in 2022 Tua is the showcase here – not a classic “mobile QB” with only 6 rushes for 29 yards this year and 266 rushing yards over 3 years, but he navigates the pocket to give himself extra time (+0.78 seconds). He is one of only two QBs with a better passer rating while under pressure with a silly 118.9 passer rating.
Dak is the one that may shock people here – he really should be in the above “mobile QB” quadrant if you look at his career. Ever since his injury he has not been a heavy rusher but is still dangerous with a passer rating 11 points better than the league.
3. The “runners” (bottom right: poor pocket mobility but good rushing value):
These are the QBs that are athletically mobile but haven’t turned it into effective passing. Justin Fields will develop and Russell Wilson is clearly on decline as a passer, but these QBs’ passer ratings average almost 15 points worse than the league.
4. The “pocket passers” (bottom left: poor pocket mobility and rushing value):
While many are, these QBs aren’t all bad QBs. They survive on quick releases instead of extending plays. The QBs here on average throw in 3.19 seconds under pressure, less than half a second longer than clean passing averages. If you look at the more successful QBs (the circle size is EPA to identify them), they average even quicker at 3.0 seconds, by far the quickest on these groups.
Tom Brady is the interesting one here. He clearly isn’t mobile, but he releases at a ridiculously quick rate – 2.28 seconds across all passing and only 2.97 seconds under pressure. He never allows pressure with how quickly he throws, with only an 18% pressure rate, best in the league.
Valuing Mobility
The league has largely moved on from non-mobile QBs as it is really hard to find any non-mobile QBs where significant draft capital has been used over the past several years. Mac Jones is probably the closest example.
It’s really hard (impossible) to separate any one aspect of football out from the larger context of the game, some quick data to try to put value to a QB’s mobility:
Mobile QBs are far outpacing RBs in EPA/rush
Of the top 10 rushers by EPA/rush, 6 are QBs (Hurts, Jones, Lamar, Fields, Kyler, and Mariota) and the top mobile QBs are outpacing even the league’s best RBs in rush value when you look at both designed rushes and scrambles.
| EPA/rush | |
| League average rushes (excluding QB kneels) | -0.001 |
| Josh Jacobs | 0.044 |
| Nick Chubb | 0.072 |
| Miles Sanders | 0.091 |
| Top mobile QBs average | 0.683 |
| Jalen Hurts | 0.767 |
Here is an example from Hurts in the week 12 Green Bay game. This is the 4th highest EPA play of the game at 2.938 EPA and the 17th highest value non-scoring play across all week 12 games.
On 3rd and 10 from the Eagles 25, Hurts picks up 24 yards after getting pressure with all routes covered. Critics will say he had Gainwell on the crosser, but Hurts’ body is turned at that point making this an awkward throw.
Mobile QBs improve the passing game vs. pressure
I will exclude the details on the math, but there is a strong correlation between EPA/pass and passer rating (R2 of 0.84). The top mobile QBs above average a passer rating 10 points better than the league average when under pressure which equates to a value of +0.12 EPA/pass.
To put this in context, 0.12 EPA/pass is the difference between Jalen Hurts (0.203 EPA/pass, 6th in the league) and Jared Goff (0.085, 18th in the league). These plays made regularly are the difference between having and not having a QB.
Here is an example from the Colts game. There are many better, more heroic “scrambly” ones, but I wanted the more ordinary play that he makes multiple times a game.
Hurts gets pressure, climbs to buy time, and fits a ball in where only DeVonta can catch it for a pick up of 17. Again critics may say he starts climbing too soon and had Boston Scott free, but this is 2nd and 28 after a couple of penalties and Scott would have picked up 5 yards.
This play had a 40.8% CPOE and an underrated EPA of 0.242 (this play’s EPA is muted because it is still 3rd and 11 after the play). The Eagles did not convert and score, but to get close to converting on a hopeless 2nd and 28 is valuable.
In Philly we have seen first-hand Hurts’ value in making the defense play 11-on-11 worrying about him running or having him materially elevate the passing game by improvising. With Hurts averaging 8.5 runs a game and 7.5 passes under pressure, his mobility is worth approximately a touchdown a game.
And if you look at points per game for the league, the mobile QBs dominate the top of the list with Kirk Cousins being the first non-mobile QB at #9.
- Kansas City 29.6 points per game
- Buffalo 27.8
- Philly 27.5
- Seattle 26.5
- Cincinnati 25.9
- Miami 25.6
- Dallas 25.4
- Baltimore 25.0
- Detroit 25.0
- Las Vegas 24.1
It’s the same list when you look at average drive length, 3rd and 4th down conversions, and percent of drives ending in a score which is no accident.
I wrote earlier this week on the Titans game and despite their number 1 ranked run defense, one area that Tennessee has struggled is defending mobile QBs. As he has been in so many games this season, Hurts could be the difference in Tennessee.
Fly Eagles fly!
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