The Eagles double-dipped at UGA in the 2022 draft and if they end up in the market for a safety in 2023, they should look there again.
After years of ignoring the SEC, Howie has used 4 of his top 6 picks the past two years to take players from Alabama and Georgia. And not just any players, but high character, team leaders from National Championship teams.
Late in the offseason, safety went from the most concerning position on a really strong team to a position of strength with the trade for C.J. Gardner-Johnson and the surprising emergence of two UDFAs, Marcus Epps and Reed Blankenship.
Howie would love to keep this team together but with a long list of free agents this offseason, including CJGJ and Epps, they may be in the market for a safety again.
And if they want a safety in the draft, Bulldog Chris Smith II is my guy.
Statistics
Gannon pointed to the changing needs of a safety and how they need to do everything. From Bleeding Green Nation:
“In 2022, the safety position looks different than when I got in the league in 2007. You have to be able to cover, you have to be able to tackle, you have to have ball skills, you have to play zone, you have to process. That’s a thinking position.”
This far ahead of the draft, UGA’s Chris Smith has an expected draft position between 80-120 and the highest you see him rated is SAF3. But he is going to be one of the best fits at safety in the draft.
- Deep alignment: Aligns as a single or double high safety 68% of snaps, more than any other safety in this class
- Coverage skills: the 2nd best PBU rate (20.8%), best passer rating against (49.1), and best YAC per reception allowed (2.6 yards)
- Run fits: Has the 2nd best adjusted run stop rate (run stops factoring in deep alignment) at 7.5%
- Ball skills: 6 interceptions over the past two seasons on 57 targets, a 10.5% interception rate, best in this class
Clips
Closing from deep alignment
I’ll start with a run defense snap, as I did with Devon Witherspoon. Coverage is key but plays like this show speed, play recognition, and effort which isn’t always seen.
I don’t know what he will officially test but look at this on-the-field speed. Here Smith is 12 yards deep, reads immediately and breaks on a handoff to Oregon’s Noah Whittington (who has speed) for a 2 yard TFL. Smith is faster than anybody on the field.
And here, 12 yards deep on a WR screen, again watch the closing speed as he breaks on the play.
Coverage
Single-high alignment, lays a big hit at the catch point for a PBU.
In the 2021 season opener against Clemson, Smith with a pick-six (interestingly, his brother plays for Kansas State and had a pick-six earlier in the day). Not a great pass but he shows his break on the ball.
And against Bo Nix, stepping in front of TE Patrick Herbert.
One think you will see is some bad angles and missed tackles. Smith has 10 missed tackles in 2022 (a 16.4% rate in 2022 with a career 15.2% rate). This is the biggest area for me and one that knocks him down a bit. Here’s a clip from the SEC Championship game this year where Boutte runs past him for a long TD after a bad angle.
What others are saying
Take draft opinions for what they are, but I am including the common themes on Smith:
- Versatile safety that can play deep safety, nickel corner, and robber
- High football IQ and ability to identify routes
- Good burst and recovery speed, ability to close on routes
- Thin frame that needs to fill out
- Needs to improve angles and tackling
Draft projection
Smith will be passed over by some teams because of his age (23 by the start of his rookie season) but would be good value in the back half of day 2.
He fits exactly what the Eagles want in safeties and players in general. From DawgNation, his parents describe him as “an old soul” and somebody who would rather “stay home or work out than hang out with his friends all day”.
And like the players Howie has recently taken from Alabama and Georgia, Smith has the intangibles. Kirby Smart explained Smith’s growth – “Just his toughness, his leadership. He was always a competitor, a great kid, comes from a great family, great high school background. He played corner, he played everything we asked. If anything, he’s grown as a leader.”
Not as many people are looking at safeties this year as they were last due to the signing of CJ and emergence of Epps and Reed Blankenship. Re-signing one or both of their safeties will be a priority for Howie, but if the Eagles look to the draft, Chris Smith II is the guy I like over the other top prospects.
“My guys” draft profiles
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