The Eagles are coming off their 8th straight win but in that game, we all saw what Houston’s rookie back Dameon Pierce could do. On his way to 139 yards and a 5.1 per rush average, Pierce was the Texans offense. His nine broken tackles were ninth most in a game this season behind only Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker, Derrick Henry, and Pierce himself (who had 17 week 5 against the Jaguars). And while he broke off a couple of big runs, what was impressive was his consistency – in a league that averages 4 yards or more on a rush only 46% of the time, Pierce hit on 56% of his attempts against the Eagles.
Last draft season I wrote on which analytics matter when evaluating college running backs for the draft. I won’t repeat the data here, but the main points were the following:
- EPA/rush for RBs is misleading because of how backs are used – a higher short-yardage usage elevates EPA
- RB value is best defined by yards after contact, broken/missed tackles, and explosive rush rate, all stats that better isolate a back’s skill from the game situation and blocking
- A college RB’s elusiveness and explosiveness both correlate well with NFL success
Pierce was one of the backs that stood out last year when looking at elusiveness and was one of the day 3 RBs I highlighted as projected value. Also listed was Eagles practice squad back Kennedy Brooks who has not seen regular season action yet.
Below shows the 2022 RBs draft prospects in blue with their college elusiveness rating on the X-axis and NFL rushing grade (weeks 1-8) on the Y-axis. The grey dots are prior year draft prospects to show the correlation between elusiveness and NFL grade (R2 = 0.35).
If you are interested in deeper detail on the analytics here, see PFF’s article “Signature Stat Spotlight: Elusive Rating” and my article from February 2022 “Running Backs: Elusiveness, Explosiveness, and Potential Day 3 Gems“.
Which RBs in this year’s draft class should we look at?
While many still dismiss prioritizing RBs in the draft (and I agree here), last year was an anomaly with the first back not taken until Breece Hall at R2-36. This was the latest an RB was taken since 2014 with the top RB taken at picks 10 (Todd Gurley), 4 (Zeke), 4 (Fournette), 2 (Saquon), 24 (Josh Jacobs), 32 (Clyde Edwards-Helaire), and 24 (Najee). And in four of those seven seasons, a second back was also taken in the first round (Melvin Gordon, Christian McCaffrey, Rashaad Penny, and Travis Etienne).
The 2023 RB draft class is viewed to be deep, with a sure first-round-worthy back in Bijan Robinson. Mocks mean nothing at this point, but consensus mocks currently have two RBs projected in the first, with Bijan around 15 and Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs at the end of the 1st.
Below shows the 2023 RB draft prospects with their college elusiveness rating on the Y-axis and explosive rush rate on the X-axis.
NOTE: These stats are only the partial college season to-date and are likely to change as several back will have their tougher, late-season games upcoming.
But this does look to be a deep class and with a bigger list of backs I like on days 2 and 3 than past years. Below are the summary stats on this year’s likely class and I will dive into several that I like and a few that I am lower on than consensus.
Too expensive:
Bijan Robinson, Texas – Mid 1st round
This is not an anti-Bijan view as I think he is the most deserving 1st round RB in several years. There is nothing to not like about Bijan – he gets 72% of his yards AFTER contact, 1.88 yard per route run receiving, and generates a 40% missed/avoided tackle rate. And while this is a good RB class, Bijan is one of the few that has good size at 6’0″ 220.
My issue is if he goes somewhere in the middle of the 1st round, it just isn’t worth it. The rookie wage scale would pay a pick here around $4M a year and the league just isn’t paying up on free agent RB contracts – the top five over the past two seasons have been between $5M and $7M (and Miles will likely be in that range). Compare that to the open market cost for top pass rushers, receivers, corners, and tackles which all near or exceed $20M a year and you just gain so much more value at other positions.
Get one of these guys:
Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama – Late 1st or early 2nd
It’s hard to find a draft write-up on Gibbs that doesn’t mention Alvin Kamara as a comparison. Not sure that comp is fair or accurate but I’d say Travis Etienne without a doubt. There is a lot to like about Gibbs and you see his explosiveness and value as a receiver. The two concerns with him are blocking and, relatedly, his size at 5’11” 200 lbs as there aren’t a ton of every down backs his size in the league. When you watch how Alabama used him, picture him in the backfield with Jalen and you can see how dynamic he would be.
This clip is a reception where he makes 3 defenders miss and then breaks tackles. This is what he does.
De’Von Achane, Texas A&M – Round 2-3
He will be the most explosive player on the field most games. Nobody in this class better shows “slow to the hole, fast through the hole” and he would immediately fix the Eagles awful kick return game. It looks like I am ignoring the explosive and elusiveness stats above, and I am a bit. But his stats are down this year and I trust his first two years where he had a 31% missed tackle rate, a 23% explosive rush rate, 4.3 yards after contact, and 1.97 yards per route run.
Tank Bigsby, Auburn – Round 3
A ridiculous 83% of his yards come after contact and I’m not sure there is another back that can change directions as well as he can. Last year he wouldn’t have been on my list just because of his fumble rate, but it looks like he has cleaned it up this year.
Several clips vs. Ole Miss where he had caused 7 missed tackles and averaged 7.6 yards after contact.
Zach Charbonnet, UCLA – Round 3
Charbonnet is one of my favorite backs on the list, especially taking into account his expected draft position. I love his contact balance given his size (6’1″ 220) and is one of the most complete backs with Bijan and Jahmyr. He is boringly consistent racking up 120+ yard games and unlike some in this class, has also shown this against top opponents. I’m curious to see his 10-yard split at his size as his acceleration seems to be modest but then he runs away from people. My only real question is would Howie draft a Chip Kelly guy…
I have questions on these guys:
Zach Evans, Ole Miss – Round 2
II need to watch more of Evans as seems like everybody has him higher than I do. He can be so fun to watch but then I watch the Kentucky game (the one good run defense they have played this year so far) and I didn’t see him create much on his own. I also don’t like his fumble rate which is 1.5% for his career and up to 1.9% this season. Most have him in the 2nd and some are talking about the 1st round and I just am not there.
Sean Tucker, Syracuse – 3rd round
Tucker is the one I am probably too negative on as he has just looked awful against my alma mater Pitt in back-to-back years. But his stats back up the concern. If he really is a mid-day 2 guy, I would have concerns.
Chris Rodriguez, Kentucky – Rounds 4-5
Rodriguez could be my favorite back here in terms of value with two questions. First, character. He was suspended for DUI and another unnamed offense so any team would need to do their homework. And second, he has a career 1.6% fumble rate including 6 last season.
A quick Eagles mock to get one of the backs above
R1-6: Myles Murphy, EDGE Clemson – I cannot imagine not taking the best DL available here
R1-31: Devon Witherspoon, CB Illinois – Jahmyr Gibbs went 1 pick before me so I take one of my favorite CBs in the class. Still mocked in mid day 2, he will go R1 and we will see if he is even available here
R2-63: Jaquelyn Roy, DT LSU – Doubling up on the DL
R3-95: De’Von Achane, RB Texas A&M – He’s just so explosive. The Eagles would need to re-sign Miles or add another bigger guy but Achane would bring more speed to this offense