With Howie clearing out the Eagles’ 2023 day three picks in the trades for C.J. Gardner-Johnson (5th and 6th rounders) and Robert Quinn (4th rounder), the Eagles are left with six picks, of which four are on the first two days.
I admit, I irrationally like draft picks more than I should even though I very much know the percentages on players turning out in each round. First, we all talk ourselves into players we love in the mid and late rounds and Howie has actually way outperformed the majority of the league on day three picks. And second, I just hate watching the draft go by with other teams picking and us not on the clock for hours.
Howie’s day 3 performance
I previously wrote about Howie’s draft performance and he really does outperform on day 3. Below shows the actual player value vs. expected value across rounds in Howie’s tenure:
Howie is 3rd best in the league in value over expected on day three and 1st in the league in the 7th round. The 2011 6th rounder Jason Kelce is statistically the 8th best draft value out of almost 6,000 picks since 2000. Jordan Mailata has a chance to be similar and players like Josh Sweat and Jordan Poyer (although didn’t play for Philly) are top of league starters. And Jalen Mills, Dion Lewis, Vaitai, Quez Watkins, Kenny Gainwell, and Jack Driscoll are all solid players that outperformed expectations at their draft position.
But as well as Howie has drafted in the later rounds, the hit rate is still not great with just under 20% of day 3 picks being borderline starters or better. What you take away from looking at all of the Eagles day 3 picks since 2010:
Half of day 3 picks are throwaways: 31 of 67 picks either never or barely played. Clayton Thorson and Matt Barkely, but also draft picks generally loved by the fans like JaCoby Stevens and Tarron Jackson.
Only 1 of 10 picks are starting level players: Howie has absolutely hit on two (Kelce and Mailata) which most teams never come close to that level of player. But also in this list are Josh Sweat, Avonte Maddox, Jordan Poyer, and Jalen Mills.
Another 10% are solid depth / borderline starters: Think of Jack Driscoll, Quez Watkins, Mat Pryor, and Dion Lewis.
A third of these picks are depth players: This is not to be critical of these players, they are all expected value or better at some of these pick locations and either contributed as special teamers or spot starters. Includes players like Vaitai, Wendell Smallwood, Nate Gerry, Casey Toohill, and K’Von.
And lastly, 6 of the 61 I have as TBD as it is too early in their careers. Includes Patrick Johnson, Kyron Johnson, Grant Calcaterra, Zech McPhearson, Kenny Gainwell, and Tuipulotu.
Below shows this with all of the Eagles day 3 picks since 2010 grouped into thirds by player value percentile (value defined by Approximate Value). You can see two things: First, the majority of these picks end up not having much value. And second, there is little to no difference in outcomes between a player taken in the 4th vs. the 7th and actually, the Eagles weirdly have done better in the later rounds.
Day 3 trades and picks
Recently Howie has been more active trading day 3 picks for players, with 10 of his 19 trades occurring over the past 3 years, including the two this year that brought Quinn and Johnson. Here are the Eagles last 10 years of trades for players using day 3 picks:
| Year | Give | Get | Comments |
| 2022 | 2023 R4 | ED Robert Quinn | |
| 2022 | 2023 R5 2024 R6 | S C.J. Gardner-Johnson | |
| 2021 | 2022 R6 | CB Kary Vincent | A throwaway as Vincent was one of the lottery ticket corners Howie accumulated |
| 2021 | 2022 R6 | QB Gardner Minshew | If you can get a solid backup QB for a 6th, you do it |
| 2021 | 2023 R6 CB Jameson Houston | DB Josiah Scott | Scott looks to be a good depth piece for the current Eagles |
| 2020 | 2020 R3 2020 R5 | CB Darius Slay | The best trade part 1: Given Slay has been one of the top CBs in the league, you could have traded a 1st or 2nd for him here |
| 2019 | 2021 R4 | LB Genard Avery | One of the trades that never made sense as Avery never seemed to have the right role |
| 2019 | 2019 R7 | DT Hassan Ridgeway | A solid trade as Ridgeway was solid depth for 3 years at the cost of a 7th rounder |
| 2019 | 2019 R6 | WR Desean Jackson 2020 R7 | A cheap cost for Jackson, but he could never stay healthy on his second stint in Philly |
| 2019 | 2020 R6 | RB Jordan Howard | We love our big backs and Howard was a fan favorite, but a trade where expected value is actually greater than what Howard brought in 12 games over a year and a half |
| 2018 | 2019 R7 | S Deiondre Hall | A special-teamer for one year |
| 2018 | WR Marcus Johnson 2018 R5 | ED Michael Bennett 2018 R7 | This, with the Matt Tobin trade in 2017, effectively was a Matt Tobin and Marcus Johnson for Michael Bennett trade for the Eagles |
| 2017 | 2018 R4 | RB Jay Ajayi | The Super Bowl piece trade: Ajayi was a key part of the Eagles Super Bowl run |
| 2017 | Matt Tobin 2018 R7 | 2018 R5 | See the Bennett trade two above |
| 2015 | QB Nick Foles 2016 R2 2015 R4 | QB Sam Bradford 2015 R5 | The righting-Chip’s-wrong trade: Don’t even know what to say about this except the Eagles later fleeced MIN on the Bradford trade, getting picks that turned into Derek Barnett and Josh Sweat. |
| 2014 | 2015 R7 | RB Kenjon Barner | 3-year role player and special-teamer |
| 2014 | 2014 R5 | RB Darren Sproles | The best trade part 2: Sproles goes on to a 6-year career with the Eagles with 3 Pro Bowls, 2,790 scrimmage yards and 1,411 return yards. |
| 2013 | 2013 R6 | WR Arrelious Benn 2013 R7 | The missed opportunity trade: The oft-waived/signed/IR’d Arrelious Benn didn’t even play between 2013-2015 but the throw-in R7 pick the Eagles got turned into Jordan Poyer who they released… |
| 2010 | 2011 R6 | G Reggie Wells | Wells started 1 game and was released |
If you look at the value the player brought vs. the expected value of the above picks dealt, the story is definitely mixed. The trades that brought Sproles and Slay were tremendous values… Hassan Ridgeway, Jay Ajayi, Michael Bennett, and even Desean despite not being healthy all added key pieces at areas of need… Minshew’s placement below is misleading as his value is in having a competent backup, not one that racks up on-the-field value.
Howie’s misses – Kary Vincent, Reggie Wells, Deiondre Hall – were very low cost trades where the pick had almost no expected value. The worst of them was the Avery trade which never made much sense. And the one really ugly trade was the 2015 trade for Sam Bradford which was of course Chip Kelly’s, not Howie’s (it’s even uglier than it looks above as Bradford would be another 10 AV given up further to the right on the chart). And Howie recovered from that mess, getting picks back from MIN that turned into Josh Sweat and Derek Barnett.
What does this mean for Gardner-Johnson and Quinn?
I don’t have value vs. cost for this year’s trades as we are still inside the season. Both are rentals as they aren’t controlled past this season. But the value of these trades is that the team is getting much more certainty on what they get back. The second chart above shows how much variability in value comes from these picks – the average value is near worthless but there is a wide spread of value. When trading for C.J. you know exactly what you are getting – a really good safety that fits the system the Eagles play. With the Dallas game alone, C.J. has probably already exceeded the value of the 5th and 6th round picks (which with the Eagles record, will be late 5th and 6th rounders).
Even with Quinn where most are worrying about his “drop in production this season”, you have much more certainty on what he will be. He will only be expected to be a rotational player and is better than most believe when they only look at sack numbers. I care about win rates more than sacks and he is still at a league average win rate while being doubled near the top of the league. The loss of Khalil Mack hurt him in Chicago.
One way to look at these picks is to equate the pick value given up to a player that matches the expected value. For C.J., the Eagles gave pick value worth 0.18 AV per game which is a Wendell Smallwood or Matt Pryor. Even only having C.J. one season, you would make that trade every day. For Quinn, the Eagles gave up 0.12 AV per game of expected value which is a Joe Walker or Casey Toohill. I’ll take it.