Now that we are over a third of the way through the season, we have enough data to look at a few of the key things I cared about this season for the Eagles.
Opposing QBs time to throw vs. the Eagles pass rush
Last year I looked at the Eagles pass rush and what was wrong with it. In 2021, the Eagles pass rush suffered in the key stats of sacks (a league low) and pressures, but they actually rated 7th in Pass Rush Win Rate (PRWR) which measures how often a rusher beats their block in 2.5 seconds. They also had a top-10 pass rusher with Javon Hargrave. One issue that impacted the pass rush stats was opposing QBs were throwing the ball at one of the quickest rates in many years.
Where are the Eagles in 2022 so far? The sack totals are better, tied for 7th in sacks through 6 weeks. They are better than last year, now 3rd in PRWR and have two top pass rushers with Josh Sweat and newly signed SAM Haason Reddick.
Opposing QBs are still throwing quickly against the Eagles – in five of their six games, opposing QBs threw at a much quicker pace than the league average with only Wentz surprisingly not beating the league average, taking 23 pressures and 9 sacks that day. It’s still only a six-game sample, but QBs are throwing even faster (2.48 seconds) than they did last season (2.58). But the Eagles are also generating better pressure than expected given the quick releases.
Pass rush and coverage is obviously related and one of the top things I said I wanted to watch for this season was opposing QB time to throw and the pass rush. A.J. Brown got a lot of the offseason interest, but I was most excited about the total remake of the defense, adding James Bradberry and C.J. Gardner-Johnson to the secondary, solidifying the long-maligned linebacker corps by starting T.J. Edwards, signing Kyzir White, and drafting Nakobe Dean, finally adding a run stopper with Jordan Davis, and upgrading the edges by getting Brandon Graham back and signing Reddick.
Their pass rush wasn’t as bad as most thought last year, but it is absolutely upgraded this year.
Jalen Hurts passing efficiency in the 1-10 yard range
By far the biggest question for the Eagles entering this season was Hurts’ performance. Way too much has been debated and written on Hurts, I think most of us got to the point of “enough, let’s just let the season play out.”
I have written in the past on what specifically mattered and to me, it was his CPOE in the highest frequency passing game, the short-range (1-10 yards).
Hurts obviously looks different and better, but what does the underlying data show? It matches the eye test:
- Hurts went from 20th in the league in composite EPA+CPOE in 2021 to 5th this year and 22nd in CPOE in 2021 to 9th.
- His efficiency in the high frequency 1-10 yard range is much improved with his CPOE rising 5 points to league average but his 0.327/pass EPA here 3rd best in the league behind only Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.
- His deep ball – which I never understood the criticism on as he has been good here throughout his career – is also greatly improved, with the 3rd best CPOE in the league.
And all of this with the Eagles having a slightly higher drop rate this year, which shows up hurting a QB’s CPOE and EPA. The Eagles already have 10 drops in 6 games, vs. 22 in Hurts’ 16 starts last year.
Hurts is so much better this year and all of the above doesn’t even speak to his running, which would put him as the 13th most valuable rusher in the league.
DeVonta and AJ combined targets
Hurts’ efficiency helps – and is helped by – the Eagles WR1A and WR1B. Last season, the Eagles were second worst in the league in yards per route run (YPRR) by their receivers at 1.23 YPRR. This year, the Eagles are 8th at 1.69 YPRR by their receivers, with A.J. Brown 5th in the league, continuing at his career average of 2.50, and DeVonta Smith improving on his rookie season at 1.85 YPRR, good for 18th in the league.
At the beginning of the season, it was interesting to debate who between DeVonta and A.J. would have the better season, but I cared about their combined targets – if Hurts and the Eagles were able to elevate how often their elite receiver pairing were used, their passing game was going to be a big strength.
Last season, the Eagles targeted DeVonta and then WR2 Quez Watkins 178 times through the season. In 2022 through 6 games, Brown and DeVonta already have 90 targets, setting them on pace for over 250 combined targets for the season.
At 6-0 and showing they can win games in multiple ways, it is an understatement to say the Eagles are doing what they needed to this year. But the Eagles really have improved on exactly the things that they needed to.
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