It’s been a busy summer and I haven’t written in a little while. We moved again after moving 2 years ago, some of our friends are starting to think we are in the Witness Protection Program. Covid finally caught up with me. And I finally made it out to Glacier National Park which was amazing but I don’t understand how people live places where you can literally drive for hours with zero cell coverage.
I’ve been thinking about this upcoming season and was revisiting my preseason thoughts from last year when I did my win predictions. If you missed it last year, I use an aggregate expected team Approximate Value (AV) which is highly correlated to wins. Here are the two most relevant posts that explain the methodology:
After modeling a really bad 2020 for the Eagles and really liking the “over” in 2021, I once again think the Eagles will easily exceed their current 9.5 preseason win line and have them at an 11-win season in 2022. I will refine and go into more depth on 2022 over the next few weeks, training camp and injuries can change things and strength of schedule needs to be dug into.
But first I wanted to revisit my 2021 assumptions and see what I was right and wrong on.
Revisiting my 2021 assumptions
Last year I had some luck, modeling the Eagles at 210 total team AV and 9 wins. They ended with 219 AV and exactly 9 wins. More interesting however is looking back on the main assumptions I used and which were right and wrong:
Assumption 1: Hurts will be in the top half of the league in total value
I modeled Jalen Hurts with a bump up from his rookie season to 14 AV which would put him right around Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins in value. Hurts ended better than I modeled with 17 AV and a lot of his excess value coming from rushing and cutting turnovers. Hurts was 22nd in the league in EPA from passing, but 6th best in total EPA lost due to turnovers and also 6th in EPA generated from rushing.
Looking at composite EPA+CPOE, Hurts was 17th with Cousins 14th and Carr 15th. I’ve been more of a Hurts fan than many, but didn’t model him to be great – just being an average QB would have been a huge lift to the Eagles over 2020 when Wentz was a disastrous 5 AV with 15 interceptions, 10 fumbles, and the worst composite EPA+CPOE in the league.
Assumption 2: The OL will bounce back to above average, but not elite
I was directionally right but not optimistic enough as the Eagles actually were elite last year, finishing 2nd in run block win rate and 3rd in pass block win rate and a clear strength of the team on the field.
My assumption primarily rested on the OL being healthier than 2020 which was historically injured (“The Eagles Offensive Line 2021 Outlook“) and it was. After losing 71 OL games to injuries in 2021, the Eagles OL lost only 32 games in 2022. The majority of these games were Brandon Brooks and Isaac Seumalo, who both missed 14 games and were very well replaced by their backups. Landon Dickerson, who I didn’t expect to even play last year, played at a high level… Nate Herbig and Jack Driscoll teamed to fill in at RG… Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson both had their 2nd best career years statistically… and Jordan Mailata elevated to be one of the best LTs in the league.
Assumption 3: DeVonta will be really good
One of the assumptions I felt most confident in, I also had DeVonta Smith with the “over” on his preseason 750 receiving yards (“Why DeVonta Will Hit the Over on Everything“) and had him modeled at 8AV. DeVonta hit 10AV and really could have been even better with a couple of TDs called back and DeVonta being open way more than he was targeted.
Assumption 4: The DL will be similar to, but slightly down from, 2020
The DL shined in camp last year and I was a bit more bearish on them than most, primarily due to age concerns with Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham (age degradation plays a big part in my model). The DL did disappoint last year but think the reality is way more complicated. Everybody looks at the sack totals which I don’t stress about as much as they got more pressure than their sacks told the story on. Despite what everybody believes, the Eagles were actually 4th in the league in pass rush win rate (generating pressure in 2.5 seconds or less). But what most don’t look at is how QBs attacked the Eagles. In 13 games, the opposing QB threw quicker than league average and the Eagles faced one of the average quickest time-to-release time over the past 3 years. More well understood is how poor they were against the run and how they had to commit more bodies up front (which led to the drafting of Jordan Davis).
Assumption 5: The secondary won’t be good but will be improved from 2020
Another one that is more complicated and I was partly right on. Darius Slay had a huge bounce back year which I didn’t see… I wasn’t bullish enough on Avonte Maddox back in the slot… and I underestimated the scheme shift and personnel mismatches in places. The secondary did limit explosive plays but allowed prolonged drives with short “chip you to death” passing for most of the season.
Assumption 6: Miles Sanders and Jalen Reagor will have upticks in value
Yep, I was one of these people… the thing I was most wrong on was expecting some improvement from Reagor. I still think he can be a decent contributor and hope he does, but he is going to have to make the absolute most of limited opportunities this year. Sanders did have a slight uptick last year but overall this one was way wrong. How much the WRs impact the passing offense vs. the QB and the improvement from adding A.J. Brown and year 2 of DeVonta will be the most interesting thing to watch this upcoming season.
Assumption 7: The LBs will still be an issue but Eric Wilson is an improvement
Not a tough prediction to say the LBs were going to be an issue, so can’t claim much success here. I had a “smartest guy in prison” view on Wilson – not that he would be great, but that he would be an upgrade. And was wrong on that as he was awful.
In total, I was right on 4 or 5 assumptions, 1 horribly wrong on, and a couple that were mixed.
I am still tweaking the 2022 model and want to see how the roster ends up and refine league strength of schedule, but some initial quick thoughts on 2022 assumptions:
- Hurts has such a solid value floor, I am currently modeling him where he was in 2021. If anything, he should be more likely to take another step up than not given the improved WR group. The big addition of A.J. Brown, who will take snaps from Reagor, adds another almost half win.
- After not modeling the defense being better last year, I am expecting biggest jump for the Eagles here in 2022. Going from Alex Singleton to Kyzir White, Genard Avery to Haason Reddick, and Steven Nelson to James Bradberry adds 8-10 AV which is over a win by itself. Factoring in growth in young players like Josh Sweat and Milton Williams adds a bit more value. I’m not factoring much in right now on Jordan Davis but there is clearly upside there in improving the awful run defense and changing the coverage math. And while much harder to model, the coaching staff being in year 2 with the personnel to better run Gannon’s scheme is worth something.
- “Luck” is a murky stat to factor in outside of extremes, but the Eagles were slightly “unlucky” last year, being neutral on net turnovers, going 2-4 in one-score games and memorably having several dumb TDs called back. With the coaching staff in year 2 and another year of experience for the young players, I am expecting a swing that could mean an extra win.
- I hate writing this as it puts it out into the universe, but after 3 straight years of bad injury luck, the Eagles were actually better than average in 2021 and either avoided key position injuries or in the case of the OL had depth to cover injuries. I am expecting being a bit worse here in 2022.
- And finally, the Eagles have one of the easiest schedules in the league. They also did last year, so this isn’t a big year-over-year change.
This will shift some, but right now I have the Eagles at 226 AV which comes out to 11 wins (10.7 to be exact).
Fly Eagles Fly!