There are two very divisive differences of opinion when discussing which way a team should proceed regarding the Quarterback position.
One– You need an elite QB to have a chance in today’s NFL.
Two– You build a strong team, develop a QB, if and when a window opens to win (and you still need a QB) you make a move like the Rams and Bucs did.
Obviously, having an elite QB makes things easier and masks other deficiencies a team may have. The question is at what cost should you pay to acquire one, and what difference have they made for franchises in the past?
So, I decided to look back at what history tells us about the QB position, and the correlation between having an Elite QB on the roster, and winning a SB.
Fact or Myth Number 1:
“A QB needs an elite strong arm to succeed and win SBs”
This statement is a myth.
A history of QBs drafted who came out of college with the strongest arms:
Lamar Jackson, Jay Cutler, JaMarcus Russell, Zach Wilson etc
Quarterbacks with average to above average arms coming out of college, who have won SB:
Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady (to name just a few)
This myth, is the reason the stronger armed QBs were taken in the first half of round one, while Brady, Rodgers and Brees were all taken later.
The seven traits that the most successful Quarterbacks in the league share are: anticipation, accuracy, footwork, pocket presence, athleticism, decision making and mental toughness. Arm strength is always talked amongst the fans the most, but every QB coach I spoke with never mentioned it.
Fact or Myth number 2:
“Trading 1st rd picks to acquire an elite QB gives you a better % chance of winning a SB”
This statement is a myth.
The only QBs who were dealt for multiple first round picks (omitting draft day deals for QBs such as Eli Manning, John Elway, and Brett Favre) that went on to win a SB for their new team just had to be updated. Why? Because prior to this season, the answer was ZERO. Until SB 56, no established QB acquired via trading multiple first round picks had ever won a SB. Matt Stafford is the only veteran QB to be acquired via multiple first round picks during their career to win a SB. Congrats Matt!
Fact or Myth number 3:
“Having an elite QB gives you more Super Bowl wins”
This statement is rooted both in fact and myth.
While trading multiple first round picks to “fix” a teams QB issue is not the way to succeed, as shown above. Drafting a QB first overall, overwhelmingly, does give you the greatest chance at SB glory and of finding your elite arm.
34.6 % of all QBs selected first overall, over the last 45 years, won a SB
This is by far the greatest advantadge a team has to win a SB. There are many factors that contribute to this. The team also selects first in every other round and cap friendly rookie contract also frees up money to build the team in other areas, etc. I would also imagine having a competent GM who can evaluate talent in choosing the best QB, also utilizes that skill to draft talented players at other positions as well.
QBs taken number one overall (26)
Total number one overall picks who won a SB: 9 (18 SBs)
Matt Stafford, Steve Young, Jim Plunkett, John Elway, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Troy Aikman, Terry Bradshaw, Drew Bledsoe (won ring, didn’t play in game)
Total number one overall picks who didn’t win SB: 17 (0 SBs)
Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Winston, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Derek Carr, Michael Vick, Tim Couch, Jeff George, Vinny Testaverde
Fact or Myth Number Four:
“Seasoned Veterans like R Wilson (age 33) gives you a greater chance of winning a SB”
This statement is also a myth.
So what does the age of a QB tell us about a teams chances of winning a SB?
Of the 56 winning SB Quarterbacks, 30 have been won when the QB was aged 30 or younger.
25 or younger: 6 Super Bowls 10.7%
26–30 years old: 24 Super Bowls 42.9
31–35 years old: 17 Super Bowls 30.3%
36 or older: 9 Super Bowls 16.1%
(Brady = 4 of those over age 36)
The other 5: Elway twice, Unitas, P Manning, and Jim Plunkett
Average age of Super Bowl winning QB, in each decade:
2010s: 31 years old
2000s: 27 years old
1990s: 30.6 years old
1980s: 30.8 years old
1970s: 30 years old
1960s: 30.7 years old
Having a QB, 30 or younger, wins the SB 61% of the time if you omit “the unicorn” that is Tom Brady. 54% of the time otherwise. Tom skews the entire narrative 7% all by himself. He is the only outlier. Ever.
The greatest QB in NFL history (Tom Brady) was taken in the 6th round!
Fun Super Bowl Facts:
26 different Quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl in the last 45 years
(7) Brady round 6 pick 199
(4) Bradshaw round 1 pick 1
(4) Montana round 3 pick 82
(3) Aikman round 1 pick 1
(2) P Manning — round 1 pick 1
(2) E Manning — round 1 pick 1
(2) B Rothlisberger round 1 pick 11
(2) Elway round 1 pick 1
(2) Jim Plunkett round 1 pick 1
(1) Favre round 2 pick 33
(1) S Young round 1 pick 1
(1) Stafford round 1 pick 1
(1) J Flacco round 1 pick 18
(1) N Foles round 3 pick 88
(1) R Wilson round 3 pick 75
(1) Trent Dilfer round 1 pick 6
(1) Mahomes round 1 pick 10
(1) A Rodgers round 1 pick 24
(1) D Brees round 2 pick 32
(1) Jeff Hostetler round 3 pick 9
(1) Jim McMahon round 1 pick 5
(1) Joe Theismann round 4 pick 99
(1) Phil Sims round 1 pick 7
(1) Doug Williams round 1 pick 17
(1) B Johnson round 9 pick 227
(1) K Warner Un-drafted
Total number of QB taken in the first round (not #1 overall) who won the SB: 8 (totaling 9 SBs)
17.8% of QB drafted in the first rd (not 1st overall) over the last 45 yrs won SB
34.6 % of all QBs selected first overall, over the last 45 years, won a SB
In contrast:
1 QB who was traded to a team for multiple first round picks during their career has won a Super Bowl.
The most proven, successful, way to build a winner is drafting and developing a first round QB.
Total number of QB taken in the 2nd rd or later to win a SB: 10 QBs totaling 19 SBs.
QBs drafted first overall never to win a SB as a starter:
JaMarcus Russell, Michael Vick, Andrew Luck, Vinny Testaverde, Jared Goff, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Jeff George, Baker Mayfield, Tim Couch, Steve Bartowski, Sam Bradford, Kyler Murray, Jameis Winston, Derek Carr, Joe Burrow
Of the 112 teams that have reached the Super Bowl, 91 of them ranked in the Top 10 in scoring defense. 91!
Over the last 45 years the #1 ranked defense has won 28.57 of SB
Over the last 45 years the #1 ranked offense has won 20.41of SB
The Packers have had 30 straight years of elite QB play, yet only won 2 SB during this time.
When Rodgers won the SB in 2010, the defense was second in pts allowed (240). In 1996 when Favre won his SB, the defense allowed the fewest pts (210) in the entire NFL.
Are you seeing a pattern emerge yet?
The Top Ten Paid QBs in 2021:
P Mahomes $45 million J Allen $43 million Dak Prescott $40 million Deshaun Watson $39 million R Wilson$35 million Rodgers $33.5 million Goff $33.5 million K Cousins $33 million Wentz $32 million M Ryan $30 million
How many of those QBs won or were even in SB this yr?
Very hard to win with that much money allocated to a single player, it is the reason why Brady constantly reworked his contract and accepted his money being deferred. He wanted to win.
Joe Burrow is the only QB drafted first overall to win a DIVISIONAL playoff game within their first 2 seasons, ever.
Joe Burrow and Russell Wilson are the only (2) second year QBs in the last ten years to win 2 playoff games.
Defensive Rankings for SB winners:
Big Ben won 2 SBs def ranked 1 & 4
Rodgers 1 SB def ranked 2
Wilson 1 SB def ranked 1
Foles/Wentz 1 SB def ranked 4
Even the great Tom Brady 7 SB def ranked; 6, 1, 2, 8, 1, 7, 1
Some outliers like, Eli Manning. His 2 SB wins with the Giants were accomplished with defensive rankings of 17 &25 and the offense ranked 14 & 9. Both were very improbable SB wins. How improbable?
Cra Cra:
Only one QB has even won a Super Bowl while having the rank of their offense and defense equal a combined CRA total over 15
(CRA= combined ranked average)
That QB is Eli Manning. He did it twice!
(Ex: 3rd ranked Offense plus the 5th ranked Def = a CRA of 8)
2011 Giants had the 9th ranked off and 25th ranked def CRA=17
2007 Giants had the 14th ranked off and the 17th ranked def CRA=15.5
The average team that wins the SB has a CRA of 5.75. Meaning they usually have one of the top 5–6 offenses and defenses. (Or a #1 ranked offense with a 10th ranked def to average 5, or vice versa)
So in conclusion what does history tell us?
The day a struggling NFL team drafts a successful college QB in the first round is always filled with such hope and promise. The front office, players, and fan base all imagine the coming success and what it will be like to finally have a franchise QB lead their team to victory. The years of despair and bad QB play is finally coming to an end. All of the frustration and disappointment of watching inferior play while the losses pile up will be ending too.
Until, it doesn’t.
Sadly, kinda like buying a boat, the two greatest days are the one you get it, and the day you get rid of it.
Eagles fans know this with Wentz. More often than not, after a few frustrating years, everyone has seen enough of the shiny new toy that didn’t live up to expectations.
The emotional roller coaster of working, playing, or rooting for a team that is constantly on the Quarterback carousel is exhausting. It is also rarely successful. Identifying, drafting, developing, and keeping your franchise QB is the formula that has proven to be long term success.
If you looked at the list of SB winning QBs above, outside of the fact that most are first round picks, you will see the other important part of the equation. Teams keep their QBs. Bradshaw, Montana, Brady, Rodgers etc all spend 10 plus years with the same franchise. Through the ups and downs, season after season, teams will make many changes. The franchise QB is never one of those changes. They are always the constant.
Even for teams that don’t win a SB early on with their investment, they stay the course. (Ex: Elway finally won the SB in his 15th and 16th year! It also took Peyton Manning 9 seasons before he won his first, and he didn’t win another until his 18th year.
Coincidentally, Elway and Peyton are the only 2 QBs to retire after a SB win.
Teams always hold onto their prized possession. Since the salary cap was implemented in 1994, the QBs who have been willing to move money around, or accept less for the good of the team (like Brady) have won the most titles. For the teams with QBs who demand the highest salaries (Rodgers, Mahomes) they are usually, always competitive, but historically have only won 1 SB. In addition to being one and done as far as winning titles, the teammates, front office, and fans have watched their best players leave due to roster constraints regarding the cap.
This year alone, Rodgers and the Packers lost D Adams and the Chiefs and Mahomes lost T Hill. Something that rarely ever happened. Joe Montana and Jerry Rice, Steve Young and Jerry Rice, Troy Aikman and Michael Irvin, Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison, Kurt Warner and Isaac Bruce etc. Those pairings became synonymous, and legendary.
“You left Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, I don’t know if I could’ve ever left Troy Aikman. I don’t think I could’ve done that.” Michael Irvin
There is not a position more valuable on the field than QB. There is nothing more valuable in the game than an elite QB.
“Elite” seems to mean different things to different people, but I would categorize it as being a top 5 QB. (Is top 10 really elite in a league of 32 teams? That’s 30% of all QBs being called elite.) A top 5 QB in their prime rarely, if ever, becomes available or at cost that will help a GM acquire one, while being able to manage a cap to put a winner on the field at the same time.
In short, drafting a QB in the first round doesn’t insure a SB but it does, without question, give teams their largest percentage advantage of winning one.
When Philadelphia Eagles GM Howie Roseman, regrettably, stated “We want to be a QB factory”, he was being honest and 100% correct. The best path to success in the NFL is by drafting first round QBs. Unfortunately, due to said salary cap and the fact only 1 QB can start, it is almost impossible to keep stocking up on first round QB’s more than every 4–5 years. You can keep drafting wide receivers in the first round (as the Eagles are finding out) as 3 or 4 can be on the field simultaneously. If you miss on one, as long as they’re serviceable, they become WR 3 instead of one. It is almost impossible to have 3 first round QBs on a team.
As the Eagles learned when they drafted Jalen Hurts, and the Packers have learned drafting Love, a QB’s psyche can’t seem to take the competitive spirit as well as the other positions. They regard themselves as not having to be in position that requires competition. To be fair, the media and fanbase immediately see it as a QB controversy too.
So.
Does having an elite QB give you more chances to make the playoffs? Yes, but the caveat is acquiring one you drafted in the first round.
Does having a top tier QB guarantee that you win more Super Bowls? No
Having a QB drafted in the first round does.
It takes a team, great relationships, good health, a lot of luck and hitting on Quarterbacks drafted in the first round.
You can’t go on a QB carousel every year.
Finding a player like Josh Allen, is like finding a needle in a haystack.
The Browns have been trying to find an elite QB for 22 years (since selecting Tim Couch ahead of D McNabb) and they have had much more draft capital (via terrible records) and much higher first round picks than any other team during that span.
Every GM in the league is trying to draft the next Mahomes etc.
Had the Eagles traded for R Wilson (who would have been 34 years old this season), historically, would not have resulted into winning a championship. Again omitting the unicorn that is Brady (he is the only outlier, numerous 1 hit wonders have won the SB they’re not the outlier) leaves five SB wins for Quarterbacks 35 and over. That means you have a 9% chance to win the SB, historically, with a QB over 35. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t done it. Montana didn’t, Bradshaw didn’t, Aikman didn’t, and they are all HOF QB who were the best of their era. That statistic exemplifies how rare it is to win a SB with an aging QB.
You get the picture. It takes a team!
Teams With Regrets:
Rams sent Roman Gabriel to the Eagles in 1973. In exchange for the former MVP, then 33 years old, Los Angeles received 2 first-rd picks & acclaimed wideout Harold Jackson. Eagles got one good season out of Gabriel.
49ers traded 3 first-rounders and a 2nd to the Patriots for Plunkett in 1976
Plunkett won his Super Bowls with the Oakland Raiders
One Eagles only Fact or Myth:
Specifically regarding the Philadelphia Eagles, there is a great divide between Hurt truthers and doubters. Every time I read a tweet about Jalen, or a story on him, the comments from his detractors are always the same.
I researched one of these comments that has been stated a lot regarding his statistics in 2021, mainly used to validate their opinion that he is not very good.
“Hurts only had good numbers against bad teams!”
Well….not exactly. Myth!
Versus teams with a losing record:
Passing — 88.3 passer rating, completion % 64.3, 8 TDs 6 INTs
Rushing — 5.1 yards per rush with 6 TDs
Versus teams with a winning record:
Passing — 86.2 passer rating, completion % 58.3, 8 TDs 3 INTs
Rushing — 6.3 yards per rush with 4 TDs
Regardless of the debates, the numbers, or how many games they’ve won. Until a player becomes perceived as the long term franchise QB, teams will always be looking for their guy.
In real life a common phrase I hear is “you can only count on two things in this world, death and taxes”.
In the NFL there are only two types of teams. Those with an elite QB, and those that are looking for one.