Howie is pretty open on how he prioritizes positions but despite that, many still get frustrated when drafts don’t follow our mocks with linebackers going in the 1st. Here I look back at which positions the Eagles have most often taken or used the most draft capital on during Howie’s tenure.
First to set context, below is a chart I used before and shows free agency spend data by position to show which positions are premium positions that teams across the league are willing to pay up for.
In a passing league, positions most closely related to passing are the most valuable positions. Pass rushers, pass defenders, pass catchers, and quarterbacks are the positions bid up most in free agency. And they are the positions prioritized in the draft year after year across the league.
Howie’s draft strategy is consistent in allocating the most draft capital to the premium positions. The below shows how Howie has used draft capital by position. For each position and year there are two numbers – the top number is simply the number of picks used on a position and the second number is the total draft capital used on that position that year (I am using an expected Approximate Value metric by pick location to define draft capital). For example, in 2021 one defensive back was taken (Zech McPhearson) with a total draft capital of 2.21 (an expected AV for pick 4-123).
Some of my takeaways from Howie’s tenure (2015 is the one year Howie did not run but I left it in as Chip’s draft doesn’t change the story):
Howie spends on the premium positions: Howie has used the most picks and draft capital on the same premium positions. 55% of picks and 57% of draft capital have been used on EDGEs, corners, receivers, and quarterbacks over Howie’s tenure. Excluding QBs, it is still 48% of picks and 50% of draft capital.
Howie isn’t as bad on linebackers as most think: Does Howie take linebackers high? No. Mychal Kendricks was a 2nd rounder in 2012 and Davion Taylor and Jordan Hicks were both 3rd rounders. The other nine LBs were all day 3 picks. But LB is 4th on the list of draft capital used. And this makes sense no matter how much many disagree – look back up at the first chart I showed on free agency costs and LBs are a better relative value to get in free agency.
The investments made and the hit rate are two different things: Howie is widely criticized (justly) for his hit rate on top picks. While there has been a good amount of draft capital spent on cornerbacks and wide receivers, the majority of these picks have underperformed. The below chart shows the aggregate values of draft picks by position vs. the expected value for that pick over Howie’s tenure (positive numbers are outperforming expected value on a pick, negative values are misses).
Some takeaways, most of which are not unearthing anything not already known:
Underperforming at premium positions – Howie has been consistently bad drafting corners and receivers. The lone bright spot for corners is in round 7 where both Jalen Mills and Jordan Poyer were hits (I recently wrote on the best Eagles draft values here and both Mills and Poyer are in the top 10). My issue on corner is while the total investment is good, corners have not been taken high – corners are tough to hit on but their hit rate drops quicker than any position other than QB after round 1. DeVonta and Quez saved receivers recently in the 1st and 6th. EDGEs were crushed because of Marcus Smith and Barnett has underperformed.
The first round has been bad – Only four of eleven 1st rounders have exceeded their expected draft value – DeVonta Smith, Wentz (even an ok QB will outperform expected draft value because of the high value of QBs), Fletch, and Lane Johnson. And while everybody misses, the picks of Marcus Smith, the fireman, and Jalen Reagor were all widely seen as big reaches. Andre Dillard was a miss and Derek Barnett has underperformed. On the positive side, while it is early, last year’s BPA draft is currently Howie’s best draft with picks in both of the first two rounds outperforming expected value. Let’s hope that repeats this year.
Howie shines on day 3 – Later round picks have almost no value so just exceeding expected value isn’t anything great – a multi-year backup would outperform expected draft value but isn’t impactful to the team. But Howie has actually greatly outperformed on day 3 with some truly great finds. Jordan Mailata, Jason Kelce, Jordan Poyer, and it is looking like Josh Sweat are all top of league starters. Jalen Mills, Dion Lewis, Vaitai, Quez Watkins, Kenny Gainwell, and Jack Driscoll are all day three picks that are solid players and much better value than expected. Howie’s performance here is one of the best in the league – he is:
- 1st in the league in round 7 value over the past 5 and 10 year periods
- 3rd best in the league in day three value over the past 5 years (behind SF and Green Bay) and 7th best in the league over the past 10 years
The Eagles aren’t as bad as we all think – Every team has their misses, we are just so close to the Eagles and their misses are so noticeably bad. Evaluating talent is hard and the best are wrong way too often, but it is bad when every single fan would have made the right (or better) decision on the biggest misses on Reagor and Marcus Smith and the fireman. We know some of the background that some of these picks didn’t come from outside of Howie but results are results. But taking all of the good and the bad, the Eagles are 12th in the league in value vs. expected over the past five years:
Even the best teams will have drafts that look bad for certain positions or rounds, evaluating players is just too hard to consistently get more right than others. But the criticism on top draft picks is absolutely legitimate.
Just changing one of these like Reagor for Jefferson makes a huge difference and would move the Eagles from 12th to 8th in the league. Swapping JJ Arcega-Whiteside not even for D.K. Metcalf but a league average receiver moves the Eagles even further up. You can’t cherrypick, the total performance is what it is, but the Eagles aren’t greatly different from a lot of the teams – their misses are just so much more visible (thinking about the video of Minnesota celebrating when the Reagor pick came in).
Oh, and last thing, unless Howie is convinced they have the next Darius Leonard or Micah Parsons, we can all stop mocking 1st round linebackers (and he will probably make me eat those words…)
A couple of notes on the data which is sourced from ProFootballReference:
- Cornerbacks and safeties are combined into a defensive back grouping because the historical data is not consistent separating them.
- Linebackers may surprise many by being fairly high and like the secondary, historical data does not do a good job separating on and off ball LBs. The pass rushing LBs are the ones pushing the draft capital utilization up.